- The Mets (75-42) are -145 favorites vs the Braves (72-46)
- Mets starting pitcher: Maxwell Scherzer (8-2), 1.92 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Jacob Odorizzi (4-4), 3.80 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSO
The New York Mets (-145) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (+120) on Wednesday, August 17, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Mets vs Braves Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mets are 75-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 62-56 ATS.
Mets vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +120 | O 7.5 -115 | -145 |
| Braves | +1.5 -145 | U 7.5 -105 | +120 |
Mets vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 58.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 35 games (+16.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 35 of his last 56 away games (+13.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 22 away games (+12.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 45 away games (+11.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.90 Units / 41% ROI)
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 62 of his last 106 games (+18.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 38 games at home (+17.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+15.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 61 of his last 104 games (+14.90 Units / 9% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 25 of his last 33 games at home (+11.40 Units / 19% ROI)
Braves vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Ronald Acuna | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
Braves vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +130 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Ronald Acuna | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Braves vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -200 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Ronald Acuna | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
Braves vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Odorizzi | 3.5 -140 | 3.5 +100 |
| Max Scherzer | 7.5 -140 | 7.5 +105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 117 games (+19.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 68 of their last 117 games (+15.42 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 64 of their last 117 games (+13.35 Units / 9% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 79 games (+7.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 22 of their last 37 games (+6.65 Units / 16% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 92 games (+20.22 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 68 games (+20.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 31 games at home (+10.10 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 8 games (+7.25 Units / 88% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 17 of their last 28 games (+6.35 Units / 21% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 64-53 against the Run Line (+13.35 Units / 9.39% ROI).
- 75-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +19.3 Units / 10.82% ROI
- 59-51 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.55 Units / 1.96% ROI
- 51-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.3 Units / -10.39% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 62-56 against the Run Line (-0.5 Units / -0.34% ROI).
- 72-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.35 Units / 3.84% ROI
- 59-52 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.75 Units / 1.34% ROI
- 52-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.8 Units / -9.89% ROI
Maxwell Scherzer: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Scherzer has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 83.8 MPH with runners in scoring position since the start of last season (97 balls in play) — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 137 total IP; League Avg: 88.0
Max Scherzer has allowed an OBP of just .220 (559 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: .306 — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 37% (426/1,157) against Max Scherzer since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 97th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .190 (102-for-538) against Max Scherzer since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 97th Percentile.
Jacob Odorizzi: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jake Odorizzi has thrown elevated pitches 46% of the time (667/1,462) on pitches in the strike zone since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Jake Odorizzi has thrown elevated pitches 49% of the time (361/732) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 9% (7/80) against Jake Odorizzi on inside fastballs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Jake Odorizzi has thrown elevated pitches 47% of the time (953/2,039) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 98th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Mets are just 3-30 (.091) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Mets are 65-5 (.929) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .886.
The Mets are 64-16 (.800) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Mets are 26-5 (.839) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .709.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Braves are 9-2 (.818) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 30-3 (.909) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .665.
The Braves are 8-3 (.727) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 63-14 (.818) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OBP of .331 (3,063 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .266 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .219.
The Mets have scored first in 71% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Mets are batting .258 this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .676 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .558.
Braves hitters are slugging .502 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .390.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .855 (878 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .721.
Braves hitters are slugging .307 with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .270.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have picked-off 9 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Orlando Arcia (Braves): Hamstring, D10
- Max Fried (Braves): Head, D7
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
- Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Illness, D10
- Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Raymond Hunter (Mets): Back, D15
- Tomás Nido (Mets): Illness, D10
- Taijuan Walker (Mets): Back, Day-to-Day
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Side, D15
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Side, D15
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Eduardo Escobar (Mets): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
- Luis Guillorme (Mets): Groin, D10
- Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
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