Mets vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 17

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 17, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Mets (75-42) are -145 favorites vs the Braves (72-46)
  • Mets starting pitcher: Maxwell Scherzer (8-2), 1.92 ERA
  • Braves starting pitcher: Jacob Odorizzi (4-4), 3.80 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSO

The New York Mets (-145) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (+120) on Wednesday, August 17, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Mets vs Braves Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mets are 75-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 62-56 ATS.

Mets vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets-1.5 +120O 7.5 -115-145
Braves +1.5 -145U 7.5 -105+120

Mets vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 58.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 35 games (+16.40 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 35 of his last 56 away games (+13.70 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 22 away games (+12.40 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 45 away games (+11.50 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.90 Units / 41% ROI)

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 62 of his last 106 games (+18.30 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 38 games at home (+17.30 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+15.00 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 61 of his last 104 games (+14.90 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 25 of his last 33 games at home (+11.40 Units / 19% ROI)

Braves vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +320 0.5 -550
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Matt Olson 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Michael Harris 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Ronald Acuna 0.5 +310 0.5 -550

Braves vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Dansby Swanson 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Matt Olson 0.5 -185 0.5 +130
Michael Harris 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Ronald Acuna 0.5 -200 0.5 +145

Braves vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Matt Olson 0.5 +135 0.5 -200
Michael Harris 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Ronald Acuna 0.5 +180 0.5 -275

Braves vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jake Odorizzi 3.5 -140 3.5 +100
Max Scherzer 7.5 -140 7.5 +105
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 117 games (+19.30 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 68 of their last 117 games (+15.42 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 64 of their last 117 games (+13.35 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 79 games (+7.50 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 22 of their last 37 games (+6.65 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 92 games (+20.22 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 68 games (+20.05 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 31 games at home (+10.10 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 8 games (+7.25 Units / 88% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 17 of their last 28 games (+6.35 Units / 21% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 64-53 against the Run Line (+13.35 Units / 9.39% ROI).

  • 75-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +19.3 Units / 10.82% ROI
  • 59-51 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.55 Units / 1.96% ROI
  • 51-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.3 Units / -10.39% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 62-56 against the Run Line (-0.5 Units / -0.34% ROI).

  • 72-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.35 Units / 3.84% ROI
  • 59-52 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.75 Units / 1.34% ROI
  • 52-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.8 Units / -9.89% ROI

Max Scherzer has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 83.8 MPH with runners in scoring position since the start of last season (97 balls in play) — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 137 total IP; League Avg: 88.0

Max Scherzer has allowed an OBP of just .220 (559 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: .306 — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 37% (426/1,157) against Max Scherzer since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 97th Percentile.

Right-handed batters are hitting just .190 (102-for-538) against Max Scherzer since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 97th Percentile.

Jacob Odorizzi: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jake Odorizzi has thrown elevated pitches 46% of the time (667/1,462) on pitches in the strike zone since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.

Jake Odorizzi has thrown elevated pitches 49% of the time (361/732) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 99th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 9% (7/80) against Jake Odorizzi on inside fastballs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Jake Odorizzi has thrown elevated pitches 47% of the time (953/2,039) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 98th Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Mets are just 3-30 (.091) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Mets are 65-5 (.929) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .886.

The Mets are 64-16 (.800) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Mets are 26-5 (.839) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .709.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Braves are 9-2 (.818) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 30-3 (.909) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .665.

The Braves are 8-3 (.727) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 63-14 (.818) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .331 (3,063 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .311.

Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .266 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .219.

The Mets have scored first in 71% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

The Mets are batting .258 this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .243.

Braves hitters are slugging .676 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .558.

Braves hitters are slugging .502 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .390.

Braves hitters have an OPS of .855 (878 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .721.

Braves hitters are slugging .307 with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .270.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Braves pitchers have picked-off 9 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Braves vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Orlando Arcia (Braves): Hamstring, D10
  • Max Fried (Braves): Head, D7
  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Illness, D10
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Raymond Hunter (Mets): Back, D15
  • Tomás Nido (Mets): Illness, D10
  • Taijuan Walker (Mets): Back, Day-to-Day
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Side, D15
  • Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Side, D15
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Eduardo Escobar (Mets): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
  • Luis Guillorme (Mets): Groin, D10
  • Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.