- The Braves are -225 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson
- Braves starting pitcher: Allan Winans
- Watch the game on BSSO
The New York Mets (+180) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-225) on Monday, August 21, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).
The Mets vs Braves Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 57-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 63-60 ATS.
Mets vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 +100 | O 10.5 -115 | +180 |
| Braves | -1.5 -120 | U 10.5 -105 | -225 |
Mets vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 78.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 32 of his last 44 games (+14.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 26 games (+11.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+10.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.75 Units / 59% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 32 games (+9.40 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Under in 32 of his last 49 games (+12.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 31 games (+11.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 49 games (+10.90 Units / 11% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+10.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 49 games (+9.90 Units / 17% ROI)
Braves vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Pillar | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
| DJ Stewart | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1600 |
Braves vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Pillar | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Francisco Lindor | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| DJ Stewart | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Michael Harris | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
Braves vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Pillar | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -150 |
| DJ Stewart | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Braves vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| David Peterson | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
| Winans | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -155 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.70 Units / 36% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.95 Units / 55% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.00 Units / 16% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 43 of their last 65 games (+17.69 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 35 games at home (+17.10 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 76 of their last 123 games (+16.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 72 of their last 123 games (+16.45 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 35 games at home (+11.70 Units / 16% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 49-75 against the Run Line (-35.65 Units / -22.65% ROI).
- 57-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -29.35 Units / -17.51% ROI
- 52-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.2 Units / -16.36% ROI
- 67-52 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.7 Units / 7.19% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 63-60 against the Run Line (-0.15 Units / -0.1% ROI).
- 80-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.65 Units / 3.58% ROI
- 65-54 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.55 Units / 4.13% ROI
- 54-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.45 Units / -13.03% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
David Peterson has a strike rate of just 59% (1,445/2,434) against right-handed batters since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 114 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
David Peterson has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 52% (242/469) of right-handed hitters since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 114 total IP; League Avg: 66% — 0 Percentile.
David Peterson has walked 69 of 599 right-handed batters (12%) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 114 total IP; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
David Peterson has a first-pitch strike rate of just 55% (427/783) since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 114 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryce Elder has located his fastballs down 48% of the time (530/1,110) this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 96th Percentile.
Bryce Elder has a strikeout rate of just 34% (100 SO in 291 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 12th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 20% (82/417) against Bryce Elder this season — tied for 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 61% (127/207) against Bryce Elder this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Mets are just 5-32 (.135) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Mets are 139-7 (.952) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .907.
The Mets are 140-1 (.993) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Mets are 53-49 (.520) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Braves are 42-31 (.575) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .300.
The Braves are 20-20 (.500) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Braves are 22-33 (.400) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .218.
The Braves are 148-32 (.822) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in just 38% of their road games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
The Mets are batting just .235 against LHP this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .347 (1,314 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .326.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .743 (5,728 PA’s) on the road since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .464 against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Braves hitters are slugging .313 with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Braves hitters are slugging .514 at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
Braves hitters are slugging .489 against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .412.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 466 of 4,734 batters (10%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have a strike rate of just 62% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers have won 47% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 22% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Braves vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D60
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Yonny Chirinos (Braves): Elbow, D15
- Samuel Hilliard (Braves): Heel, D10
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Daysbel Hernández (Braves): Forearm, D15
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Hamstring, D10
- Nick Anderson (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Luis Guillorme (Mets): Leg, D10
- Edwin Díaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Starling Marte (Mets): Migraines, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Mark Vientos (Mets): Wrist, D10
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Pec, D60
- Joshua Walker (Mets): Oblique, D60
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