- The Braves are -225 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets starting pitcher: Tylor Megill
- Braves starting pitcher: Bryce Elder
- Watch the game on BSSO
The New York Mets (+180) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-225) on Tuesday, August 22, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).
The Mets vs Braves Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 58-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 63-61 ATS.
Mets vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -105 | O 10.5 +100 | +180 |
| Braves | -1.5 -115 | U 10.5 -120 | -225 |
Mets vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 80.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 32 of his last 45 games (+13.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+12.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+11.90 Units / 55% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.75 Units / 60% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 33 games (+10.50 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Under in 32 of his last 50 games (+11.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 32 games (+10.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+9.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+9.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 34 of his last 48 games (+9.15 Units / 11% ROI)
Braves vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
| Nicky Lopez | 0.5 +1150 | 0.5 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Braves vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Francisco Lindor | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
| Nicky Lopez | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Michael Harris | 1.5 +150 | 1.5 -200 |
Braves vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Nicky Lopez | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -300 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
Braves vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tylor Megill | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -155 |
| Bryce Elder | 3.5 -105 | 3.5 -125 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.24 Units / 50% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 away games (+4.15 Units / 78% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.10 Units / 50% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.85 Units / 29% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 43 of their last 66 games (+16.29 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 36 games at home (+15.90 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 76 of their last 124 games (+15.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 72 of their last 124 games (+14.45 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 34 games at home (+10.70 Units / 27% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 50-75 against the Run Line (-34.65 Units / -21.88% ROI).
- 58-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -27.5 Units / -16.31% ROI
- 53-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.2 Units / -15.5% ROI
- 67-53 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.6 Units / 6.32% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 63-61 against the Run Line (-1.35 Units / -0.93% ROI).
- 80-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.4 Units / 2.5% ROI
- 66-54 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.55 Units / 4.83% ROI
- 54-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -18.55 Units / -13.74% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .407 (22-for-54) against Tylor Megill’s elevated fastball this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: .230 — first Percentile.
Tylor Megill has allowed a slugging percentage of .741 (40 Total Bases / 54 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: .406 — first Percentile.
Tylor Megill has an ERA of 8.20 (37.1 IP) on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: 4.47 — first Percentile.
Tylor Megill has allowed an OBP of .487 (76 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: .324 — 0 Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryce Elder has located his fastballs down 48% of the time (530/1,110) this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 96th Percentile.
Bryce Elder has struck out just 14% (40/277) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 19% (74/383) against Bryce Elder this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 12th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% (108/571) against Bryce Elder since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 114 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Mets are just 5-32 (.135) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Mets are 141-1 (.993) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Mets are 140-7 (.952) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .907.
The Mets are just 2-56 (.034) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Braves are 20-21 (.488) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Braves are 22-34 (.393) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .218.
The Braves are 42-32 (.568) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .300.
The Braves are 33-15 (.688) after a home loss since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .517.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have been successful on 71% of their hit & run attempts since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .350 (1,319 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .326.
The Mets have scored first in just 39% of their road games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Mets hitters have just 680 strikeouts in 3,324 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .538 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .896 (1,005 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .740.
Braves hitters are slugging .467 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Braves hitters are slugging .499 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 61% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Mets pitchers have walked 62 of 560 batters (11%) over the last 14 days (14 games) — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 469 of 4,772 batters (10%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 34% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 22% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Braves pitchers have won 44% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D60
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Yonny Chirinos (Braves): Elbow, D15
- Samuel Hilliard (Braves): Heel, D10
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Daysbel Hernández (Braves): Forearm, D15
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Hamstring, D10
- Nick Anderson (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Luis Guillorme (Mets): Leg, D10
- Edwin Díaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Starling Marte (Mets): Migraines, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Mark Vientos (Mets): Wrist, D10
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Pec, D60
- Joshua Walker (Mets): Oblique, D60
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