- The Braves are -200 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets starting pitcher: José Quintana
- Braves starting pitcher: Charles Morton
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The New York Mets (+165) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-200) on Wednesday, August 23, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Mets vs Braves Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 58-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 63-62 ATS.
Mets vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -115 | O 9.5 -105 | +165 |
| Braves | -1.5 -105 | U 9.5 -115 | -200 |
Mets vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 78.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 33 of his last 46 games (+14.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+10.90 Units / 48% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+10.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 34 games (+9.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.45 Units / 49% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Under in 32 of his last 50 games (+11.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+9.15 Units / 83% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 33 games (+9.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- Sean Murphy has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+8.45 Units / 43% ROI)
Braves vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Pillar | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| DJ Stewart | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Braves vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Pillar | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| DJ Stewart | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
Braves vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Pillar | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| DJ Stewart | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Braves vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Quintana | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -160 |
| Charlie Morton | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +120 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 away games (+4.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.10 Units / 56% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 away games (+3.15 Units / 50% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.85 Units / 38% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 77 of their last 125 games (+16.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 73 of their last 125 games (+15.45 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 43 of their last 67 games (+15.29 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 37 games at home (+14.80 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 37 games at home (+10.45 Units / 13% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 51-75 against the Run Line (-33.65 Units / -21.1% ROI).
- 58-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -28.5 Units / -16.8% ROI
- 53-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.35 Units / -16.2% ROI
- 68-53 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.6 Units / 7% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 63-62 against the Run Line (-2.45 Units / -1.67% ROI).
- 81-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.4 Units / 2.93% ROI
- 66-55 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.4 Units / 3.95% ROI
- 55-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.55 Units / -12.89% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Quintana has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 81.8 MPH on inside pitches since last season (176 balls in play) — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 114 total IP; League Avg: 85.7
Jose Quintana has allowed a slugging percentage of just .181 (65 Total Bases / 360 ABs) with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 114 total IP; League Avg: .269 — 99th Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 54% (639/1,177) when ahead in the count since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 114 total IP; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.
Jose Quintana has walked 7 of 49 batters (14%) over the last 14 days (2 games) — 4th highest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 8% — seventh Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 41% of the time (2,125/5,223) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .371 (23-for-62) against Charlie Morton on low fastballs this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .259 — fifth Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 48% of the time (536/1,125) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has walked 8 of 47 batters (17%) — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Mets are just 5-32 (.135) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.
The Mets are 134-9 (.937) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .870.
The Mets are just 28-40 (.412) on the road this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .476.
The Mets are just 29-38 (.433) after a loss this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .485.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Braves are 22-34 (.393) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .217.
The Braves are 42-32 (.568) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .300.
The Braves are 18-10 (.643) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .386.
The Braves are 18-7 (.720) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting just .229 at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
The Mets have been successful on 71% of their hit & run attempts since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Mets are batting .256 on the road since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
The Mets are batting just .236 against LHP this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .464 against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Braves hitters are slugging .499 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
Braves hitters are slugging .468 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Braves hitters are slugging .550 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .449.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 62% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 34% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 22% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have walked 19 of 124 batters (15%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (14 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Braves vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D60
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Yonny Chirinos (Braves): Elbow, D15
- Samuel Hilliard (Braves): Heel, D10
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Daysbel Hernández (Braves): Forearm, D15
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Hamstring, D10
- Nick Anderson (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Luis Guillorme (Mets): Leg, D10
- Edwin Díaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Starling Marte (Mets): Migraines, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Mark Vientos (Mets): Wrist, D10
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Pec, D60
- Joshua Walker (Mets): Oblique, D60
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