Mets vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 12

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 12, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Braves (52-36) are -200 favorites vs the Mets (54-33)
  • Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson (5-1), 3.48 ERA
  • Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Strider (4-2), 2.60 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSO

The New York Mets (+165) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-200) on Tuesday, July 12, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).

The Mets vs Braves Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mets are 54-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 45-43 ATS.

Mets vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets+1.5 -125O 8 +100+165
Braves -1.5 +105U 8 -120-200

Mets vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 58.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+9.30 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+9.30 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 31 games (+9.30 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+9.25 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+7.25 Units / 35% ROI)

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 48 of his last 74 games (+24.70 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 49 of his last 73 games (+17.35 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 45 of his last 76 games (+16.20 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 32 games (+14.50 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Total Bases Over in 46 of his last 74 games (+14.00 Units / 15% ROI)

Braves vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adam Duvall 0.5 +320 0.5 -550
Austin Riley 0.5 +275 0.5 -450
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 +320 0.5 -550
Matt Olson 0.5 +325 0.5 -550

Braves vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adam Duvall 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
Austin Riley 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Dansby Swanson 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Matt Olson 0.5 -225 0.5 +150

Braves vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adam Duvall 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Austin Riley 0.5 +115 0.5 -160
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +135 0.5 -200
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Matt Olson 0.5 +125 0.5 -185

Braves vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Spencer Strider 6.5 -150 6.5 +105
David Peterson 4.5 -165 4.5 +120
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 87 games (+13.15 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 31 of their last 53 games (+9.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 49 games (+8.95 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 87 games (+8.62 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 87 games (+7.20 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 44 of their last 62 games (+23.17 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 38 games (+15.10 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 55 games (+11.45 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games at home (+10.60 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 41 of their last 76 games (+7.65 Units / 9% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 47-40 against the Run Line (+7.2 Units / 6.87% ROI).

  • 54-33 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.15 Units / 10.76% ROI
  • 45-37 when betting on the total runs Over for +4 Units / 4.13% ROI
  • 37-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.9 Units / -12.55% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 45-43 against the Run Line (-1.45 Units / -1.3% ROI).

  • 52-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.4 Units / 1.71% ROI
  • 42-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -5 Units / -5.15% ROI
  • 43-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.2 Units / -3.31% ROI

David Peterson has a first-pitch strike rate of just 50% (131/263) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.

David Peterson has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 47% (76/163) of right-handed hitters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.

David Peterson has a strike rate of just 58% (484/831) against right-handed batters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.

David Peterson has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 49% (103/209) of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 0 Percentile.

Spencer Strider: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 54% (23 SO in 43 PAs) this month (2 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 39% (102 SO in 261 PAs) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 47% (47/101) against Spencer Strider this month (2 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .077 (3-for-39) against Spencer Strider this month (2 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 100th Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Mets are 47-2 (.959) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .916.

The Mets are 39-4 (.907) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .792.

The Mets are just 4-5 (.444) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mets are 25-6 (.806) when scoring in the first inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Braves are 5-2 (.714) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 21-3 (.875) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

The Braves are 34-5 (.872) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .792.

The Braves are 30-19 (.612) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .522.

The Mets have scored first in 74% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .281 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .215.

Mets hitters are slugging just .380 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

25% of Mets hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Braves hitters are slugging .725 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .566.

Braves hitters have 223 extra-base hits out of 521 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Braves hitters have missed on 29% of swings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Braves hitters are slugging .638 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .576.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 26% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% this month (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% over the past seven days (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Braves pitchers have picked-off 9 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Braves vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Kenley Jansen (Braves): Heart, D15
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Starling Marte (Mets): Groin, Day-to-Day
  • James McCann (Mets): Oblique, D10
  • Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.