- The Braves (52-36) are -200 favorites vs the Mets (54-33)
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson (5-1), 3.48 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Strider (4-2), 2.60 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSO
The New York Mets (+165) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-200) on Tuesday, July 12, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Mets vs Braves Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mets are 54-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 45-43 ATS.
Mets vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -125 | O 8 +100 | +165 |
| Braves | -1.5 +105 | U 8 -120 | -200 |
Mets vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 58.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+9.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+9.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 31 games (+9.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+9.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+7.25 Units / 35% ROI)
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 48 of his last 74 games (+24.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 49 of his last 73 games (+17.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 45 of his last 76 games (+16.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 32 games (+14.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Total Bases Over in 46 of his last 74 games (+14.00 Units / 15% ROI)
Braves vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Duvall | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Austin Riley | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
Braves vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Duvall | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Austin Riley | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
Braves vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Duvall | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Austin Riley | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -160 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -200 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -185 |
Braves vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Strider | 6.5 -150 | 6.5 +105 |
| David Peterson | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +120 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 87 games (+13.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 31 of their last 53 games (+9.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 49 games (+8.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 87 games (+8.62 Units / 9% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 87 games (+7.20 Units / 7% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 44 of their last 62 games (+23.17 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 38 games (+15.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 55 games (+11.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games at home (+10.60 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 41 of their last 76 games (+7.65 Units / 9% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 47-40 against the Run Line (+7.2 Units / 6.87% ROI).
- 54-33 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.15 Units / 10.76% ROI
- 45-37 when betting on the total runs Over for +4 Units / 4.13% ROI
- 37-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.9 Units / -12.55% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 45-43 against the Run Line (-1.45 Units / -1.3% ROI).
- 52-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.4 Units / 1.71% ROI
- 42-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -5 Units / -5.15% ROI
- 43-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.2 Units / -3.31% ROI
David Peterson: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
David Peterson has a first-pitch strike rate of just 50% (131/263) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
David Peterson has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 47% (76/163) of right-handed hitters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.
David Peterson has a strike rate of just 58% (484/831) against right-handed batters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
David Peterson has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 49% (103/209) of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 0 Percentile.
Spencer Strider: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 54% (23 SO in 43 PAs) this month (2 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 39% (102 SO in 261 PAs) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 47% (47/101) against Spencer Strider this month (2 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .077 (3-for-39) against Spencer Strider this month (2 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Mets are 47-2 (.959) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .916.
The Mets are 39-4 (.907) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Mets are just 4-5 (.444) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mets are 25-6 (.806) when scoring in the first inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Braves are 5-2 (.714) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 21-3 (.875) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Braves are 34-5 (.872) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Braves are 30-19 (.612) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .522.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in 74% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .281 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .215.
Mets hitters are slugging just .380 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
25% of Mets hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .725 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .566.
Braves hitters have 223 extra-base hits out of 521 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Braves hitters have missed on 29% of swings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves hitters are slugging .638 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .576.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 26% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% this month (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% over the past seven days (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves pitchers have picked-off 9 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Braves vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
- Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
- Kenley Jansen (Braves): Heart, D15
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Starling Marte (Mets): Groin, Day-to-Day
- James McCann (Mets): Oblique, D10
- Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
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