Mets vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 13

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 13, 2022, 11:00 AM
  • The Braves (53-36) are -155 favorites vs the Mets (54-34)
  • Mets starting pitcher: Christopher Bassitt (6-6), 3.93 ERA
  • Braves starting pitcher: Charles Morton (5-3), 4.21 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The New York Mets (+125) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-155) on Wednesday, July 13, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 12:20pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Mets vs Braves Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mets are 54-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 46-43 ATS.

Mets vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets+1.5 -155O 8 -120+125
Braves -1.5 +125U 8 +100-155

Mets vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 53.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Braves vs Mets and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.30 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.30 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 32 games (+10.30 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.25 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games (+6.65 Units / 106% ROI)
  • Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 48 of his last 75 games (+22.15 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 49 of his last 74 games (+15.90 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 45 of his last 77 games (+15.10 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+14.65 Units / 81% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 33 games (+13.50 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Braves vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Austin Riley 0.5 +300 0.5 -500
    Dansby Swanson 0.5 +350 0.5 -650
    Eddie Rosario 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
    Matt Olson 0.5 +260 0.5 -450
    Michael Harris 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000

    Braves vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Austin Riley 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
    Dansby Swanson 1.5 +185 1.5 -275
    Eddie Rosario 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
    Matt Olson 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
    Michael Harris 0.5 -175 0.5 +125

    Braves vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Austin Riley 0.5 +125 0.5 -175
    Dansby Swanson 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
    Eddie Rosario 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
    Matt Olson 0.5 +120 0.5 -165
    Michael Harris 0.5 +240 0.5 -375

    Braves vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Charlie Morton 6.5 +115 6.5 -160
    Chris Bassitt 5.5 -135 5.5 -110
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 88 games (+12.15 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 50 of their last 88 games (+9.77 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 31 of their last 54 games (+8.20 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 50 games (+7.95 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 88 games (+6.05 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 44 of their last 63 games (+21.82 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 39 games (+16.10 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 20 games at home (+11.60 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 56 games (+9.50 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 42 of their last 77 games (+8.65 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 47-41 against the Run Line (+6.05 Units / 5.71% ROI).

    • 54-34 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.15 Units / 9.86% ROI
    • 45-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +3 Units / 3.07% ROI
    • 38-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.9 Units / -11.35% ROI

    Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 46-43 against the Run Line (-0.45 Units / -0.4% ROI).

    • 53-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.4 Units / 2.39% ROI
    • 42-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -6 Units / -6.12% ROI
    • 44-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.2 Units / -2.24% ROI

    Opponents have a line drive rate of just 16% (33/210) against Chris Bassitt on pitches in the strike zone this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

    Opponents have a line drive rate of just 15% (41/265) against Chris Bassitt this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

    Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 15% (23/154) against Chris Bassitt this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.

    Chris Bassitt has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 75.8 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (130 balls in play) — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 80.3

    Charles Morton: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

    Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 28% (31/110) against Charlie Morton this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — fourth Percentile.

    Opponents have a line drive rate of 29% (71/244) against Charlie Morton this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.

    Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (342/773) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

    Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 33% (36/110) against Charlie Morton this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.

    Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

    The Mets are 3-27 (.100) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .084.

    The Mets are 47-2 (.959) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .916.

    The Mets are just 4-5 (.444) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

    The Mets are 26-19 (.578) on the road this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .478.

    Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

    The Braves are 22-6 (.786) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .713.

    The Braves are 22-17 (.564) on the road this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .478.

    The Braves are just 44-7 (.863) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .888.

    The Braves are 31-19 (.620) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .522.

    The Mets have scored first in 74% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

    Mets hitters are slugging just .379 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

    Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .282 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .216.

    Mets hitters have 192 extra-base hits out of 616 total hits (just 31%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

    Braves hitters are slugging .724 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .565.

    Braves hitters have 224 extra-base hits out of 523 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

    Braves hitters have an OPS of .783 (940 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .716.

    Braves hitters have 266 extra-base hits out of 630 total hits (42%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

    The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 26% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

    Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% this month (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

    Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

    Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

    Braves pitchers have picked-off 9 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.

    Braves pitchers have walked 74 of 803 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

    Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    Braves vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Starling Marte (Mets): Groin, Day-to-Day
  • James McCann (Mets): Oblique, D10
  • Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60

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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.