- The Braves are -190 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets starting pitcher: Justin Verlander
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Strider
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The New York Mets (+155) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-190) on Thursday, June 8, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Mets vs Braves Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 30-32 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 27-34 ATS.
Mets vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -125 | O 8.5 -115 | +155 |
| Braves | -1.5 +105 | U 8.5 -105 | -190 |
Mets vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 75.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.10 Units / 40% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 away games (+10.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Eduardo Escobar has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.80 Units / 43% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+9.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.60 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+15.25 Units / 36% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 30 of his last 42 games (+14.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+13.05 Units / 27% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 31 games (+12.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+11.35 Units / 60% ROI)
Braves vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
Braves vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Braves vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
Braves vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Verlander | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +105 |
| Spencer Strider | 8.5 -110 | 8.5 -120 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 52 games (+4.90 Units / 9% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 28 games at home (+10.30 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 61 games (+9.00 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.70 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 40% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 23-39 against the Run Line (-20.25 Units / -25.96% ROI).
- 30-32 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.55 Units / -18.07% ROI
- 28-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.5 Units / -12.39% ROI
- 33-28 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.4 Units / 3.54% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 27-34 against the Run Line (-6.5 Units / -9.05% ROI).
- 37-24 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.9 Units / 1.96% ROI
- 33-25 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.65 Units / 8.47% ROI
- 25-33 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.75 Units / -17.39% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Verlander has allowed a slugging percentage of just .298 (227 Total Bases / 761 ABs) since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 88 total IP; League Avg: .400 — 98th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .170 (63-for-370) against Justin Verlander since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 88 total IP; League Avg: .239 — 98th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .472 (400 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 88 total IP; League Avg: .699 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .365 (480 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 88 total IP; League Avg: .505 — 97th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 40% (253/638) against Spencer Strider this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Strider has struck out 41% (61/147) of left-handed batters he faced this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 41% (113 SO in 278 PAs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 45% (133/299) against Spencer Strider this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Mets are 116-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .953.
The Mets are 111-6 (.949) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .877.
The Mets are just 0-27 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .097.
The Mets are 96-13 (.881) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .799.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Braves are 31-21 (.596) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Braves are 4-1 (.800) after a win as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .444.
The Braves are 12-6 (.667) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .471.
The Braves were 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting .259 on the road since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Mets hitters have just 1,689 strikeouts in 8,532 PA’s (20%) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets hitters have just 1,163 strikeouts in 5,888 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Mets are batting .182 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters have an OPS of .911 (614 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .749.
Braves hitters are slugging .548 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .817 (2,252 PA’s) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Braves have scored first in 74% of their games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 59% of opposing batters this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have walked 51 of 538 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 26% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 17% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Braves pitchers have won 61% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D15
- Peter Alonso (Mets): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Mets): Lat, D60
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D60
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
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