Mets vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 1

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 01, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Mets (98-59) are -120 favorites vs the Braves (98-59)
  • Mets starting pitcher: Maxwell Scherzer (11-4), 2.12 ERA
  • Braves starting pitcher: Kyle Wright (20-5), 3.18 ERA
  • Watch the game on FOX

The New York Mets (-120) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (+100) on Saturday, October 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).

The Mets vs Braves Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mets are 98-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 81-76 ATS.

Mets vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets-1.5 +145O 7 +100-120
Braves +1.5 -175U 7 -120+100

Mets vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s matchup with 51.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Braves vs Mets and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 49 of his last 76 away games (+22.25 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 42 of his last 58 games (+21.20 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 57 of his last 75 games (+20.95 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 43 of his last 67 games (+18.00 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 57 away games (+13.00 Units / 20% ROI)

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 78 of his last 107 games (+28.10 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 56 games at home (+19.15 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 43 of his last 66 games (+16.55 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 82 of his last 145 games (+16.00 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 33 games at home (+13.50 Units / 37% ROI)

Braves vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Eddie Rosario 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Matt Olson 0.5 +333 0.5 -600
Michael Harris 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600

Braves vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Dansby Swanson 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Eddie Rosario 0.5 -145 0.5 +100
Matt Olson 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Michael Harris 0.5 -225 0.5 +150

Braves vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Eddie Rosario 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Matt Olson 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Michael Harris 0.5 +210 0.5 -350

Braves vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Max Scherzer 7.5 +110 7.5 -155
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 67 of their last 119 games (+14.05 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 32 of their last 57 away games (+9.90 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 84 of their last 157 games (+9.85 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 88 of their last 157 games (+7.77 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 45 games (+4.95 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 83 of their last 131 games (+26.97 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 107 games (+25.10 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 49 games at home (+12.05 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 33 of their last 52 games (+11.40 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 12 games at home (+9.20 Units / 34% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 84-73 against the Run Line (+9.85 Units / 5.03% ROI).

  • 98-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.2 Units / 1.55% ROI
  • 83-67 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.1 Units / 5.24% ROI
  • 67-83 when betting on the total runs Under for -24.1 Units / -13.98% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 81-76 against the Run Line (-4.3 Units / -2.16% ROI).

  • 98-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.4 Units / 4.61% ROI
  • 78-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.3 Units / -0.17% ROI
  • 71-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.55 Units / -8.46% ROI

Max Scherzer has allowed an OBP of just .219 (630 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: .304 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .103 (4-for-39) against Max Scherzer — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .233 — 98th Percentile.

Right-handed batters are hitting just .189 (114-for-603) against Max Scherzer since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 97th Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 34% (341/987) against Max Scherzer since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.

Kyle Wright: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% (265/482) against Kyle Wright this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 95th Percentile.

Kyle Wright has induced opposing hitters to ground into 26 double plays in 140 opportunities (19%) since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 62% (145/235) against Kyle Wright this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.

89 of Kyle Wright’s 171 strikeouts (52%) have come on curveballs this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 93rd Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Mets are 49-6 (.891) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .726.

The Mets are 47-32 (.595) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .471.

The Mets are 41-10 (.804) when scoring in the first inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .663.

The Mets are 74-5 (.937) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .803.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 35-5 (.875) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .663.

The Braves are 57-11 (.838) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Braves are 87-21 (.806) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Mets are batting .265 on the road this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .240.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .341 (2,772 PA’s) when leading off an inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .308.

The Mets are batting .444 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .265.

The Mets are batting .185 with two-strikes this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .169.

Braves hitters are slugging .662 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .560.

Braves hitters are slugging .626 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .571.

Braves hitters are slugging .443 against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .394.

Braves hitters are slugging .444 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .395.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Braves pitchers have allowed the 30th hardest ball in play hit (122.4 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.2).

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Braves vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Finger, D10
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D60
  • Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Undisclosed, D60
  • Spencer Strider (Braves): Oblique, D15
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Max Fried (Braves): Illness, Day-to-Day
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D15
  • Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Hamstring, D15
  • Brett Baty (Mets): Thumb, D10
  • Mychal Givens (Mets): Undisclosed, D15
  • Darin Ruf (Mets): Neck, D10
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Raymond Hunter (Mets): Back, D15
  • Starling Marte (Mets): Hand, D10
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Braves vs Mets and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.