- The Mets (98-58) are -130 favorites vs the Braves (97-59)
- Mets starting pitcher: Jacob deGrom (5-3), 2.93 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried (13-7), 2.49 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The New York Mets (-130) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (+110) on Friday, September 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Mets vs Braves Over/Under is 6 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mets are 98-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 80-76 ATS.
Mets vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +145 | O 6 +100 | -130 |
| Braves | +1.5 -175 | U 6 -120 | +110 |
Mets vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s matchup with 69.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 49 of his last 75 away games (+23.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 55 of his last 72 games (+21.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 42 of his last 64 games (+19.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 39 of his last 55 games (+18.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 56 away games (+14.00 Units / 22% ROI)
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 75 of his last 104 games (+25.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 55 games at home (+18.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 81 of his last 142 games (+17.25 Units / 11% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Under in 25 of his last 30 games (+16.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 94 of his last 141 games (+15.65 Units / 6% ROI)
Braves vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Braves vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +105 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -130 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -135 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
Braves vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -450 |
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
Braves vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob deGrom | 8.5 -155 | 8.5 +110 |
| Max Fried | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 56 away games (+11.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 32 of their last 56 away games (+9.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 78 away games (+8.65 Units / 8% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 78 away games (+4.50 Units / 4% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 away games (+4.05 Units / 42% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 47 of their last 71 games at home (+18.42 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 56 games at home (+18.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 48 games at home (+13.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 39 of their last 72 games at home (+8.95 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 11 games at home (+8.10 Units / 31% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 84-72 against the Run Line (+10.85 Units / 5.57% ROI).
- 98-58 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.4 Units / 2% ROI
- 82-67 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.1 Units / 4.7% ROI
- 67-82 when betting on the total runs Under for -23.05 Units / -13.45% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 80-76 against the Run Line (-5.3 Units / -2.69% ROI).
- 97-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.4 Units / 4.26% ROI
- 77-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.3 Units / -0.75% ROI
- 71-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.5 Units / -7.9% ROI
Jacob deGrom: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jacob deGrom has a strikeout rate of 42% (341 SO in 809 PAs) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 187 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 42% (294/697) against Jacob deGrom since the start of 2020 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 187 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Jacob deGrom has allowed an OBP of just .159 (220 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 187 total IP; League Avg: .300 — 100th Percentile.
Jacob deGrom has a strikeout rate of 63% (341 SO in 539 PAs) with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 187 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Max Fried: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.1 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 (197 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 187 total IP; League Avg: 80.2
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.2 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (176 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 80.3
17 of Max Fried’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — 4th most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 92nd Percentile.
56% of Max Fried’s called strikeouts are inside this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Mets are 33-8 (.805) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Mets are 84-5 (.944) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Mets are 74-5 (.937) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Mets are 41-10 (.804) when scoring in the first inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .662.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 86-21 (.804) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Braves are 7-45 (.135) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Braves are 45-33 (.577) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .472.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OBP of .335 (4,086 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Mets hitters have just 796 strikeouts in 4,086 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets hitters have just 1,166 strikeouts in 5,953 PA’s (20%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mets have scored first in 68% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .658 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .559.
Braves hitters are slugging .487 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .385.
Braves hitters have an OBP of .338 (1,558 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Braves are batting .253 with two outs since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .233.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed the 30th hardest ball in play hit (122.4 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.2).
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Finger, D10
- Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Undisclosed, D60
- Spencer Strider (Braves): Oblique, D15
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D15
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Hamstring, D15
- Brett Baty (Mets): Thumb, D10
- Mychal Givens (Mets): Undisclosed, D15
- Darin Ruf (Mets): Neck, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Raymond Hunter (Mets): Back, D15
- Starling Marte (Mets): Hand, D10
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
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