Mets vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 30

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 30, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Mets (98-58) are -130 favorites vs the Braves (97-59)
  • Mets starting pitcher: Jacob deGrom (5-3), 2.93 ERA
  • Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried (13-7), 2.49 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The New York Mets (-130) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (+110) on Friday, September 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).

The Mets vs Braves Over/Under is 6 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mets are 98-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 80-76 ATS.

Mets vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets-1.5 +145O 6 +100-130
Braves +1.5 -175U 6 -120+110

Mets vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s matchup with 69.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Braves vs Mets and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 49 of his last 75 away games (+23.25 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 55 of his last 72 games (+21.45 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 42 of his last 64 games (+19.35 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 39 of his last 55 games (+18.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 56 away games (+14.00 Units / 22% ROI)

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 75 of his last 104 games (+25.10 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 55 games at home (+18.15 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 81 of his last 142 games (+17.25 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Under in 25 of his last 30 games (+16.60 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 94 of his last 141 games (+15.65 Units / 6% ROI)

Braves vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Eddie Rosario 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000
Matt Olson 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Michael Harris 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000

Braves vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 -145 0.5 +105
Dansby Swanson 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Eddie Rosario 0.5 -110 0.5 -130
Matt Olson 0.5 -105 0.5 -135
Michael Harris 0.5 -165 0.5 +120

Braves vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +290 0.5 -450
Eddie Rosario 0.5 +325 0.5 -550
Matt Olson 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Michael Harris 0.5 +270 0.5 -450

Braves vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jacob deGrom 8.5 -155 8.5 +110
Max Fried 4.5 -165 4.5 +115
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 56 away games (+11.70 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 32 of their last 56 away games (+9.90 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 78 away games (+8.65 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 78 away games (+4.50 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 away games (+4.05 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 47 of their last 71 games at home (+18.42 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 56 games at home (+18.40 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 48 games at home (+13.10 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 39 of their last 72 games at home (+8.95 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 11 games at home (+8.10 Units / 31% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 84-72 against the Run Line (+10.85 Units / 5.57% ROI).

  • 98-58 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.4 Units / 2% ROI
  • 82-67 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.1 Units / 4.7% ROI
  • 67-82 when betting on the total runs Under for -23.05 Units / -13.45% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 80-76 against the Run Line (-5.3 Units / -2.69% ROI).

  • 97-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.4 Units / 4.26% ROI
  • 77-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.3 Units / -0.75% ROI
  • 71-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.5 Units / -7.9% ROI

Jacob deGrom has a strikeout rate of 42% (341 SO in 809 PAs) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 187 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 42% (294/697) against Jacob deGrom since the start of 2020 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 187 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.

Jacob deGrom has allowed an OBP of just .159 (220 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 187 total IP; League Avg: .300 — 100th Percentile.

Jacob deGrom has a strikeout rate of 63% (341 SO in 539 PAs) with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 187 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.

Max Fried: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.1 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 (197 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 187 total IP; League Avg: 80.2

Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.2 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (176 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 80.3

17 of Max Fried’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — 4th most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 92nd Percentile.

56% of Max Fried’s called strikeouts are inside this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Mets are 33-8 (.805) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Mets are 84-5 (.944) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.

The Mets are 74-5 (.937) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

The Mets are 41-10 (.804) when scoring in the first inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .662.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 86-21 (.804) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Braves are 7-45 (.135) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Braves are 45-33 (.577) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .472.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .335 (4,086 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.

Mets hitters have just 796 strikeouts in 4,086 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Mets hitters have just 1,166 strikeouts in 5,953 PA’s (20%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Mets have scored first in 68% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Braves hitters are slugging .658 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .559.

Braves hitters are slugging .487 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .385.

Braves hitters have an OBP of .338 (1,558 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.

The Braves are batting .253 with two outs since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .233.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Braves pitchers have allowed the 30th hardest ball in play hit (122.4 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.2).

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Braves vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Finger, D10
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D60
  • Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Undisclosed, D60
  • Spencer Strider (Braves): Oblique, D15
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D15
  • Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Hamstring, D15
  • Brett Baty (Mets): Thumb, D10
  • Mychal Givens (Mets): Undisclosed, D15
  • Darin Ruf (Mets): Neck, D10
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Raymond Hunter (Mets): Back, D15
  • Starling Marte (Mets): Hand, D10
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.