- The Mets are -150 favorites vs the Brewers
- Mets starting pitcher: Maxwell Scherzer
- Brewers starting pitcher: Wade Miley
- Watch the game on BSWI
The New York Mets (-150) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (+125) on Tuesday, April 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Mets vs Brewers Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 3-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 3-1 ATS.
Mets vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +110 | O 8 -105 | -150 |
| Brewers | +1.5 -135 | U 8 -115 | +125 |
Mets vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 66.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Brett Baty has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in his last 2 away games (+2.95 Units / 86% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the RBIs Over in his last away game (+2.05 Units / 205% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 71% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kolten Wong has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 100% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 9 games at home (+3.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- Esteury Ruiz has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+2.65 Units / 120% ROI)
- Esteury Ruiz has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 57% ROI)
Brewers vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Garrett Mitchell | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Rowdy Tellez | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Joey Wiemer | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Brewers vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Garrett Mitchell | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Rowdy Tellez | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Joey Wiemer | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
Brewers vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Garrett Mitchell | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Rowdy Tellez | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Joey Wiemer | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -550 |
Brewers vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Miley | 3.5 +130 | 3.5 -175 |
| Max Scherzer | 7.5 -105 | 7.5 -120 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 91 of their last 170 games (+19.65 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 91 of their last 170 games (+11.00 Units / 5% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 90 of their last 170 games (+9.40 Units / 5% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 95 of their last 170 games (+8.74 Units / 4% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 105 of their last 170 games (+3.80 Units / 1% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 90 of their last 163 games (+9.10 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 47 of their last 82 games at home (+6.25 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 43 of their last 82 games at home (+5.85 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 44 of their last 82 games at home (+0.95 Units / 1% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 3-2 against the Run Line (+1.25 Units / 20.16% ROI).
- 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.85 Units / 14.91% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.2 Units / -21.82% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.9 Units / 16.36% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 3-1 against the Run Line (+3.3 Units / 70.21% ROI).
- 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.65 Units / 34.74% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.35 Units / -7.53% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.1 Units / -2.41% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Scherzer has allowed an OBP of just .224 (647 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .305 — 100th Percentile.
Max Scherzer has walked 17 of 648 right-handed batters (3%) since the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 34% (344/1,010) against Max Scherzer since the 2021 season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 97th Percentile.
Max Scherzer has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.8 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season (121 balls in play) — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 89.7
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Wade Miley has located his fastball inside 58% of the time (320/553) since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 99th Percentile.
Wade Miley has thrown inside pitches 45% of the time (382/850) on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 34% (121/357) against Wade Miley when he’s behind in the count since the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 97th Percentile.
Wade Miley has located his fastball inside 56% of the time (330/592) since the 2020 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Mets were 38-28 (.576) vs top 10 scoring offenses in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
The Mets were 89-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Mets are 22-16 (.579) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mets were 54-27 (.667) at home in 2022 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .533.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Brewers are 11-120 (.084) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .046.
The Brewers were 6-62 (.088) when trailing entering the 9th inning in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .046.
The Brewers are 15-108 (.122) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .090.
The Brewers were just 61-13 (.824) when leading entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .882.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters had an OBP of .336 (4,294 PA’s) against RHP in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Mets hitters had an OBP of .334 (3,186 PA’s) on the road in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .307.
The Mets batted .265 on the road in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .325 (8,440 PA’s) against RHP since the 2021 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters struck out 440 times in 1,711 PA’s (26%) against LHP in 2022 — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers hitters have 818 strikeouts in 3,271 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers hitters slugged just .365 against LHP in 2022 — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Brewers hitters averaged 4.06 pitches per plate appearance in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the 2021 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets pitchers have walked 180 of 2,868 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers had a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the 2021 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers in 2022 — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis UrÃas (Brewers): Hamstring, D10
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Elbow, D10
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Groin, D15
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D15
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D15
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D15
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Justin Verlander (Mets): Teres Major, D15
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D15
- Stephen Ridings (Mets): Lat, D15
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D15
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