Mets vs Brewers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 19

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 19, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Mets (93-55) are -105 favorites vs the Brewers (78-68)
  • Mets starting pitcher: Maxwell Scherzer (9-4), 2.25 ERA
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes (10-7), 2.96 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The New York Mets (-105) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-115) on Monday, September 19, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Milwaukee.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+170).

The Mets vs Brewers Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mets are 92-53 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 59-84 ATS.

Mets vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets-1.5 +170O 6.5 -105-105
Brewers +1.5 -200U 6.5 -115-115

Mets vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Monday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Brewers vs Mets and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 45 of his last 70 away games (+19.90 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 49 games (+16.55 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 50 of his last 66 games (+16.45 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 37 of his last 58 games (+15.65 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 36 games (+12.15 Units / 25% ROI)

Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Willy Adames has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 40 games (+10.75 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 21 games at home (+10.20 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 42 games at home (+9.15 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Hunter Renfroe has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 40 games (+9.05 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+8.60 Units / 33% ROI)

Brewers vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Christian Yelich 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Hunter Renfroe 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Jace Peterson 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Kolten Wong 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000

Brewers vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 -135 0.5 -105
Christian Yelich 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Hunter Renfroe 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Jace Peterson 0.5 -110 0.5 -130
Kolten Wong 0.5 -140 0.5 -105

Brewers vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 +240 0.5 -350
Christian Yelich 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Hunter Renfroe 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Jace Peterson 0.5 +310 0.5 -550
Kolten Wong 0.5 +290 0.5 -500

Brewers vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Corbin Burnes 6.5 -115 6.5 -120
Max Scherzer 5.5 -160 5.5 +115
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.70 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.90 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.70 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.30 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+1.90 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 53 of their last 96 games (+13.30 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.10 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.75 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.00 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.90 Units / 30% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 79-66 against the Run Line (+11.55 Units / 6.36% ROI).

  • 92-53 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.3 Units / 3.74% ROI
  • 74-64 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.55 Units / 2.22% ROI
  • 64-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.5 Units / -10.95% ROI

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 59-84 against the Run Line (-32.15 Units / -18.67% ROI).

  • 76-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.9 Units / -9.15% ROI
  • 70-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -3 Units / -1.9% ROI
  • 67-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -9 Units / -5.71% ROI

Max Scherzer has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.5 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season (117 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: 89.7

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 34% (327/955) against Max Scherzer since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .194 (214-for-1,103) against Max Scherzer since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: .242 — 97th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 36% (459/1,268) against Max Scherzer since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 97th Percentile.

Corbin Burnes: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a miss rate of 45% (89/200) against Corbin Burnes on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.

Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 71% of the time (150/210) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.

Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 65% of the time (136/210) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 36% (487/1,349) against Corbin Burnes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Mets are just 3-45 (.062) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Mets are 43-29 (.597) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .472.

The Mets are 79-23 (.775) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The Mets are 46-6 (.885) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .725.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Brewers are 41-28 (.594) at home this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .528.

The Brewers are 8-51 (.136) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .118.

The Brewers are 16-7 (.696) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Brewers are 8-53 (.131) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Mets have scored first in 70% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Mets hitters have an OPS of .924 (254 PA’s) on the road this month (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .697.

Mets hitters are slugging just .384 against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.

Mets hitters are slugging .525 on the road this month (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .392.

The Brewers are batting just .217 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Brewers hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Brewers hitters are slugging just .373 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.06 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 36% over the past seven days (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Mets pitchers have walked 77 of 1,309 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 53% against Brewers pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Brewers pitchers this month (16 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Brewers vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Trevor Gott (Brewers): Forearm, D15
  • Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Wrist, D60
  • Matthew Bush (Brewers): Groin, Day-to-Day
  • Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
  • Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
  • Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
  • Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Eric Lauer (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
  • Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Elbow, D10
  • Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Hamstring, D15
  • Brett Baty (Mets): Thumb, D10
  • Mychal Givens (Mets): Undisclosed, D15
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
  • Starling Marte (Mets): Hand, D10
  • Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Side, D15
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.