- The Mets (95-55) are -135 favorites vs the Brewers (78-70)
- Mets starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker (12-4), 3.42 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Adrian Houser (6-9), 4.84 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The New York Mets (-135) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (+110) on Wednesday, September 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Mets vs Brewers Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mets are 94-53 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 59-86 ATS.
Mets vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +120 | O 9 -115 | -135 |
| Brewers | +1.5 -145 | U 9 -105 | +110 |
Mets vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 47 of his last 72 away games (+22.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 52 of his last 68 games (+18.45 Units / 12% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 39 of his last 60 games (+17.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 51 games (+15.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 52 away games (+11.90 Units / 20% ROI)
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 42 games (+10.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Over in 23 of his last 44 games at home (+9.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 23 games at home (+9.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Eric Lauer has hit the Strikeouts Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- Freddy Peralta has hit the Strikeouts Under in his last 8 games (+8.05 Units / 71% ROI)
Brewers vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Hunter Renfroe | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Rowdy Tellez | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -650 |
| Tyrone Taylor | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Brewers vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Hunter Renfroe | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
| Rowdy Tellez | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Tyrone Taylor | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
Brewers vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Hunter Renfroe | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Rowdy Tellez | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Tyrone Taylor | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
Brewers vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adrian Houser | 2.5 -115 | 2.5 -120 |
| Taijuan Walker | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -130 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 29 of their last 52 away games (+7.90 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 43% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 37 of their last 63 games at home (+13.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 68 games at home (+9.32 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.90 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.55 Units / 8% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 81-66 against the Run Line (+14.65 Units / 7.98% ROI).
- 94-53 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.3 Units / 4.5% ROI
- 76-64 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.55 Units / 3.42% ROI
- 64-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -19.6 Units / -12.11% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 59-86 against the Run Line (-35.75 Units / -20.34% ROI).
- 76-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -23.1 Units / -10.02% ROI
- 72-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -1 Units / -0.62% ROI
- 67-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.1 Units / -6.94% ROI
Taijuan Walker: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Taijuan Walker has not walked any of the 54 batters that he has faced — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 35% (273/774) against Taijuan Walker on low breaking pitches since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: 47% — third Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 118 of Taijuan Walker’s 529 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 22%) since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: 35% — second Percentile.
Taijuan Walker has a strike rate of just 55% (241/435) on sliders this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Adrian Houser: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adrian Houser has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.7 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season (104 balls in play) — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: 89.7
Adrian Houser has located his fastballs down 50% of the time (559/1,112) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 98th Percentile.
Adrian Houser has not struck out a hitter in his last 40 PAs against a RHH dating back to September 5th — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 16% (45/286) against Adrian Houser on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Mets are 33-7 (.825) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
The Mets are just 8-12 (.400) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mets are 47-6 (.887) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Mets are 50-26 (.658) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .527.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Brewers are just 9-33 (.214) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .277.
The Brewers are 8-52 (.133) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Brewers are 16-7 (.696) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 8-55 (.127) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OBP of .337 (3,983 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .311.
The Mets have scored first in 70% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Mets have been successful on 60% of their hit & run attempts since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Mets hitters have just 1,130 strikeouts in 5,712 PA’s (20%) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .224 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .374 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.08 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Brewers hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets pitchers have walked 77 of 1,336 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets pitchers have walked 167 of 2,721 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 35% over the last 14 days (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Brewers pitchers this month (19 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Wrist, D60
- Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
- Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
- Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Elbow, D10
- Brandon Nimmo (Mets): Quad, Day-to-Day
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Hamstring, D15
- Brett Baty (Mets): Thumb, D10
- Mychal Givens (Mets): Undisclosed, D15
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Raymond Hunter (Mets): Back, D15
- Starling Marte (Mets): Hand, D10
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
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