Mets vs Brewers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 21

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 21, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Mets (95-55) are -135 favorites vs the Brewers (78-70)
  • Mets starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker (12-4), 3.42 ERA
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Adrian Houser (6-9), 4.84 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The New York Mets (-135) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (+110) on Wednesday, September 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Mets vs Brewers Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mets are 94-53 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 59-86 ATS.

Mets vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets-1.5 +120O 9 -115-135
Brewers +1.5 -145U 9 -105+110

Mets vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Brewers vs Mets and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 47 of his last 72 away games (+22.35 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 52 of his last 68 games (+18.45 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 39 of his last 60 games (+17.70 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 51 games (+15.30 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 52 away games (+11.90 Units / 20% ROI)

Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Willy Adames has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 42 games (+10.15 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Over in 23 of his last 44 games at home (+9.85 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 23 games at home (+9.80 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Eric Lauer has hit the Strikeouts Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.35 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Freddy Peralta has hit the Strikeouts Under in his last 8 games (+8.05 Units / 71% ROI)

Brewers vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christian Yelich 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Hunter Renfroe 0.5 +350 0.5 -650
Kolten Wong 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Rowdy Tellez 0.5 +340 0.5 -650
Tyrone Taylor 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000

Brewers vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christian Yelich 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Hunter Renfroe 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Kolten Wong 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Rowdy Tellez 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Tyrone Taylor 0.5 -185 0.5 +125

Brewers vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christian Yelich 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Hunter Renfroe 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Kolten Wong 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Rowdy Tellez 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Tyrone Taylor 0.5 +185 0.5 -275

Brewers vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adrian Houser 2.5 -115 2.5 -120
Taijuan Walker 4.5 -110 4.5 -130
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 29 of their last 52 away games (+7.90 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.70 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 37 of their last 63 games at home (+13.95 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 68 games at home (+9.32 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.90 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.80 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.55 Units / 8% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 81-66 against the Run Line (+14.65 Units / 7.98% ROI).

  • 94-53 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.3 Units / 4.5% ROI
  • 76-64 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.55 Units / 3.42% ROI
  • 64-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -19.6 Units / -12.11% ROI

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 59-86 against the Run Line (-35.75 Units / -20.34% ROI).

  • 76-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -23.1 Units / -10.02% ROI
  • 72-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -1 Units / -0.62% ROI
  • 67-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.1 Units / -6.94% ROI

Taijuan Walker has not walked any of the 54 batters that he has faced — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 35% (273/774) against Taijuan Walker on low breaking pitches since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: 47% — third Percentile.

Hitters have chased just 118 of Taijuan Walker’s 529 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 22%) since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: 35% — second Percentile.

Taijuan Walker has a strike rate of just 55% (241/435) on sliders this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.

Adrian Houser: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Adrian Houser has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.7 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season (104 balls in play) — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: 89.7

Adrian Houser has located his fastballs down 50% of the time (559/1,112) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 98th Percentile.

Adrian Houser has not struck out a hitter in his last 40 PAs against a RHH dating back to September 5th — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 16% (45/286) against Adrian Houser on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Mets are 33-7 (.825) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .710.

The Mets are just 8-12 (.400) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mets are 47-6 (.887) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .723.

The Mets are 50-26 (.658) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .527.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Brewers are just 9-33 (.214) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .277.

The Brewers are 8-52 (.133) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Brewers are 16-7 (.696) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Brewers are 8-55 (.127) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .337 (3,983 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .311.

The Mets have scored first in 70% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

The Mets have been successful on 60% of their hit & run attempts since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Mets hitters have just 1,130 strikeouts in 5,712 PA’s (20%) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Brewers are batting just .224 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Brewers hitters are slugging just .374 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.08 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.

Brewers hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Mets pitchers have walked 77 of 1,336 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Mets pitchers have walked 167 of 2,721 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 35% over the last 14 days (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Brewers pitchers this month (19 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Brewers vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Wrist, D60
  • Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
  • Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
  • Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Eric Lauer (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
  • Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Elbow, D10
  • Brandon Nimmo (Mets): Quad, Day-to-Day
  • Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Hamstring, D15
  • Brett Baty (Mets): Thumb, D10
  • Mychal Givens (Mets): Undisclosed, D15
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Raymond Hunter (Mets): Back, D15
  • Starling Marte (Mets): Hand, D10
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.