- The Mets (55-34) are -130 favorites vs the Cubs (34-54)
- Mets starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco (9-4), 4.54 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Keegan Thompson (7-3), 3.03 ERA
- Watch the game on MARQ
The New York Mets (-130) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+110) on Thursday, July 14, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Chicago.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Mets vs Cubs Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mets are 55-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 43-45 ATS.
Mets vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +125 | O 7.5 -115 | -130 |
| Cubs | +1.5 -155 | U 7.5 -105 | +110 |
Mets vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Thursday‘s matchup with 63.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+11.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 26 games (+8.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 33 games (+8.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 12 away games (+7.05 Units / 55% ROI)
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 35 games (+16.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 27 games (+8.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- Willson Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+7.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- Willson Contreras has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 17 games at home (+6.85 Units / 38% ROI)
- Patrick Wisdom has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 45% ROI)
Cubs vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Rivas | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
Cubs vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Rivas | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -115 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
Cubs vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Rivas | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
Cubs vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Carrasco | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +110 |
| Keegan Thompson | 3.5 -175 | 3.5 +125 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 89 games (+13.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 51 of their last 89 games (+10.77 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 51 games (+8.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 31 of their last 55 games (+8.20 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 48 of their last 89 games (+7.05 Units / 7% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 50 of their last 87 games (+13.15 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 61 games (+6.20 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+4.80 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games at home (+1.65 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+1.25 Units / 15% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 48-41 against the Run Line (+7.05 Units / 6.56% ROI).
- 55-34 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.55 Units / 10.91% ROI
- 46-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +4 Units / 4.05% ROI
- 38-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.05 Units / -12.4% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 43-45 against the Run Line (-9.35 Units / -8.25% ROI).
- 34-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.9 Units / -17.26% ROI
- 41-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.25 Units / -6.44% ROI
- 43-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.05 Units / -2.12% ROI
Carlos Carrasco: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .412 (21-for-51) against Carlos Carrasco on inside fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .262 — second Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.020 (50 Total Bases / 49 ABs) when behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .581 — first Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed an OPS of 1.637 (60 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 1.034 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .531 (26-for-49) against Carlos Carrasco when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .332 — first Percentile.
Keegan Thompson: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 17% (2/12) against Keegan Thompson — 3rd lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 45% — second Percentile.
Opponents batted just .100 (2-for-20) against Keegan Thompson — tied for 4th best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .221 — 97th Percentile.
33% of Keegan Thompson’s strikeouts are looking against right-handed batters this season — 10th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 43 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 91st Percentile.
Keegan Thompson has not allowed a home run in any of the last 21.0 innings he’s appeared — the longest active streak is 50.1.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Mets are 47-12 (.797) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .702.
The Mets are 40-4 (.909) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .791.
The Mets are 27-19 (.587) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .477.
The Mets are just 4-6 (.400) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Cubs are just 4-24 (.143) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Cubs are just 17-29 (.370) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .523.
The Cubs are just 25-3 (.893) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Cubs are 113-5 (.958) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .914.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in 74% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mets hitters have 192 extra-base hits out of 616 total hits (just 31%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .281 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .216.
Mets hitters have just 676 strikeouts in 3,382 PA’s (20%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cubs hitters are slugging .639 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Cubs are batting .390 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Cubs hitters have 1,741 strikeouts in 6,795 PA’s (26%) against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 26% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% this month (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Cubs vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
- Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Frank J. Schwindel (Cubs): Back, D10
- Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Starling Marte (Mets): Groin, Day-to-Day
- James McCann (Mets): Oblique, D10
- Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
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