Mets vs Cubs Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 14

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 14, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Mets (55-34) are -130 favorites vs the Cubs (34-54)
  • Mets starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco (9-4), 4.54 ERA
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Keegan Thompson (7-3), 3.03 ERA
  • Watch the game on MARQ

The New York Mets (-130) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+110) on Thursday, July 14, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Chicago.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Mets vs Cubs Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mets are 55-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 43-45 ATS.

Mets vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets-1.5 +125O 7.5 -115-130
Cubs +1.5 -155U 7.5 -105+110

Mets vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Thursday‘s matchup with 63.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Cubs vs Mets and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+11.30 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.25 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 26 games (+8.85 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 33 games (+8.85 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 12 away games (+7.05 Units / 55% ROI)

Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 35 games (+16.15 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 27 games (+8.40 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Willson Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+7.30 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Willson Contreras has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 17 games at home (+6.85 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Patrick Wisdom has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 45% ROI)

Cubs vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alfonso Rivas 0.5 +900 0.5 -5000
Christopher Morel 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Ian Happ 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200
Nico Hoerner 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000
Patrick Wisdom 0.5 +350 0.5 -650

Cubs vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alfonso Rivas 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
Christopher Morel 0.5 -125 0.5 -115
Ian Happ 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Nico Hoerner 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Patrick Wisdom 0.5 -145 0.5 +100

Cubs vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alfonso Rivas 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Christopher Morel 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Ian Happ 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Nico Hoerner 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Patrick Wisdom 0.5 +160 0.5 -250

Cubs vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Carlos Carrasco 4.5 -155 4.5 +110
Keegan Thompson 3.5 -175 3.5 +125
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 89 games (+13.55 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 51 of their last 89 games (+10.77 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 51 games (+8.95 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 31 of their last 55 games (+8.20 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 48 of their last 89 games (+7.05 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 50 of their last 87 games (+13.15 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 61 games (+6.20 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+4.80 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games at home (+1.65 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+1.25 Units / 15% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 48-41 against the Run Line (+7.05 Units / 6.56% ROI).

  • 55-34 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.55 Units / 10.91% ROI
  • 46-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +4 Units / 4.05% ROI
  • 38-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.05 Units / -12.4% ROI

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 43-45 against the Run Line (-9.35 Units / -8.25% ROI).

  • 34-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.9 Units / -17.26% ROI
  • 41-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.25 Units / -6.44% ROI
  • 43-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.05 Units / -2.12% ROI

Opponents are hitting .412 (21-for-51) against Carlos Carrasco on inside fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .262 — second Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.020 (50 Total Bases / 49 ABs) when behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .581 — first Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco has allowed an OPS of 1.637 (60 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 1.034 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .531 (26-for-49) against Carlos Carrasco when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .332 — first Percentile.

Keegan Thompson: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents had a groundball rate of just 17% (2/12) against Keegan Thompson — 3rd lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 45% — second Percentile.

Opponents batted just .100 (2-for-20) against Keegan Thompson — tied for 4th best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .221 — 97th Percentile.

33% of Keegan Thompson’s strikeouts are looking against right-handed batters this season — 10th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 43 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 91st Percentile.

Keegan Thompson has not allowed a home run in any of the last 21.0 innings he’s appeared — the longest active streak is 50.1.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Mets are 47-12 (.797) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .702.

The Mets are 40-4 (.909) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .791.

The Mets are 27-19 (.587) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .477.

The Mets are just 4-6 (.400) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Cubs are just 4-24 (.143) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Cubs are just 17-29 (.370) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .523.

The Cubs are just 25-3 (.893) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Cubs are 113-5 (.958) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Mets have scored first in 74% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Mets hitters have 192 extra-base hits out of 616 total hits (just 31%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .281 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .216.

Mets hitters have just 676 strikeouts in 3,382 PA’s (20%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Cubs hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Cubs hitters are slugging .639 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .576.

The Cubs are batting .390 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .336.

Cubs hitters have 1,741 strikeouts in 6,795 PA’s (26%) against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 26% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% this month (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Cubs pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

Cubs vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
  • Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Frank J. Schwindel (Cubs): Back, D10
  • Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
  • Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Starling Marte (Mets): Groin, Day-to-Day
  • James McCann (Mets): Oblique, D10
  • Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.