- The Mets (56-34) are -130 favorites vs the Cubs (34-55)
- Mets starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker (7-2), 2.62 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Marcus Stroman (2-5), 4.90 ERA
- Watch the game on MARQ
The New York Mets (-130) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+105) on Saturday, July 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Mets vs Cubs Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mets are 56-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 43-46 ATS.
Mets vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +135 | O 7.5 -120 | -130 |
| Cubs | +1.5 -160 | U 7.5 +100 | +105 |
Mets vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s matchup with 68.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 29 of his last 45 away games (+13.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 40 games (+10.25 Units / 17% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+9.85 Units / 25% ROI)
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 36 games (+17.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+15.40 Units / 77% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+15.25 Units / 36% ROI)
Cubs vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Rafael Ortega | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Cubs vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 -110 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 -300 | 0.5 +195 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 -110 |
| Rafael Ortega | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
Cubs vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Rafael Ortega | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
Cubs vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcus Stroman | 3.5 -115 | 3.5 -120 |
| Taijuan Walker | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 -110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 90 games (+14.55 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 52 of their last 90 games (+11.87 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 52 games (+9.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 32 of their last 56 games (+9.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 90 games (+8.35 Units / 8% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 51 of their last 88 games (+14.15 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 62 games (+4.90 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+3.80 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 games at home (+0.65 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 15 games (+0.10 Units / 1% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 49-41 against the Run Line (+8.35 Units / 7.69% ROI).
- 56-34 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.55 Units / 11.58% ROI
- 47-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +5 Units / 5% ROI
- 38-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.05 Units / -13.29% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 43-46 against the Run Line (-10.85 Units / -9.45% ROI).
- 34-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.9 Units / -18.1% ROI
- 42-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.25 Units / -5.34% ROI
- 43-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.05 Units / -3.12% ROI
Taijuan Walker: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Scherzer has a strikeout rate of 71% (20 SO in 28 PAs) with two-strikes — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 21% (5/24) against Max Scherzer — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .185 (160-for-865) against Max Scherzer since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: .243 — 98th Percentile.
Max Scherzer has not walked any of the 45 batters that he has faced — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Marcus Stroman: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .125 (8 GB hits out of 64 GBs) against Marcus Stroman this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: .228 — 99th Percentile.
9 of Drew Smyly’s 28 breaking pitch strikeouts (32%) have been backdoor this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 96th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 55% of the time (516/944) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 98th Percentile.
Marcus Stroman has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 91.3 MPH with runners in scoring position since the start of last season (122 balls in play) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: 88.0
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Mets are just 4-5 (.444) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mets are 28-19 (.596) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .479.
The Mets are 26-6 (.812) when scoring in the first inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .662.
The Mets are 19-5 (.792) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Cubs are just 1-43 (.023) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .117.
The Cubs are just 34-42 (.447) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
The Cubs are just 4-25 (.138) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Cubs are just 7-38 (.156) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in 74% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mets hitters have 192 extra-base hits out of 616 total hits (just 31%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Mets hitters are slugging just .378 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Mets hitters have just 461 strikeouts in 2,335 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have grounded into 41 double plays in 288 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters are slugging .657 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .565.
Cubs hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cubs hitters have 632 strikeouts in 2,538 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% this month (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 26% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
The Cubs have won just 12% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 16% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Cubs vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
- Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
- Andrelton Simmons (Cubs): Shoulder, D10
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- James McCann (Mets): Oblique, D10
- Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
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