Mets vs Cubs Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 16

min read
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 16, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Mets (56-34) are -130 favorites vs the Cubs (34-55)
  • Mets starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker (7-2), 2.62 ERA
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Marcus Stroman (2-5), 4.90 ERA
  • Watch the game on MARQ

The New York Mets (-130) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+105) on Saturday, July 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Mets vs Cubs Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mets are 56-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 43-46 ATS.

Mets vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets-1.5 +135O 7.5 -120-130
Cubs +1.5 -160U 7.5 +100+105

Mets vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s matchup with 68.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Cubs vs Mets and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 29 of his last 45 away games (+13.00 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 40 games (+10.25 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+9.85 Units / 25% ROI)

Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 36 games (+17.15 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+15.40 Units / 77% ROI)
  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+15.25 Units / 36% ROI)

Cubs vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christopher Morel 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
Ian Happ 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Nico Hoerner 0.5 +875 0.5 -5000
Patrick Wisdom 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Rafael Ortega 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400

Cubs vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christopher Morel 0.5 -130 0.5 -110
Ian Happ 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Nico Hoerner 0.5 -300 0.5 +195
Patrick Wisdom 0.5 -130 0.5 -110
Rafael Ortega 0.5 -225 0.5 +150

Cubs vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christopher Morel 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Ian Happ 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Nico Hoerner 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Patrick Wisdom 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Rafael Ortega 0.5 +220 0.5 -350

Cubs vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Marcus Stroman 3.5 -115 3.5 -120
Taijuan Walker 4.5 -130 4.5 -110
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 90 games (+14.55 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 52 of their last 90 games (+11.87 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 52 games (+9.95 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 32 of their last 56 games (+9.20 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 90 games (+8.35 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 51 of their last 88 games (+14.15 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 62 games (+4.90 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+3.80 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 games at home (+0.65 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 15 games (+0.10 Units / 1% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 49-41 against the Run Line (+8.35 Units / 7.69% ROI).

  • 56-34 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.55 Units / 11.58% ROI
  • 47-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +5 Units / 5% ROI
  • 38-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.05 Units / -13.29% ROI

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 43-46 against the Run Line (-10.85 Units / -9.45% ROI).

  • 34-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.9 Units / -18.1% ROI
  • 42-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.25 Units / -5.34% ROI
  • 43-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.05 Units / -3.12% ROI

Max Scherzer has a strikeout rate of 71% (20 SO in 28 PAs) with two-strikes — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 21% (5/24) against Max Scherzer — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .185 (160-for-865) against Max Scherzer since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: .243 — 98th Percentile.

Max Scherzer has not walked any of the 45 batters that he has faced — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Marcus Stroman: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .125 (8 GB hits out of 64 GBs) against Marcus Stroman this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: .228 — 99th Percentile.

9 of Drew Smyly’s 28 breaking pitch strikeouts (32%) have been backdoor this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 96th Percentile.

Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 55% of the time (516/944) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 98th Percentile.

Marcus Stroman has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 91.3 MPH with runners in scoring position since the start of last season (122 balls in play) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: 88.0

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Mets are just 4-5 (.444) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mets are 28-19 (.596) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .479.

The Mets are 26-6 (.812) when scoring in the first inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .662.

The Mets are 19-5 (.792) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Cubs are just 1-43 (.023) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .117.

The Cubs are just 34-42 (.447) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.

The Cubs are just 4-25 (.138) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Cubs are just 7-38 (.156) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.

The Mets have scored first in 74% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Mets hitters have 192 extra-base hits out of 616 total hits (just 31%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Mets hitters are slugging just .378 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Mets hitters have just 461 strikeouts in 2,335 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Cubs hitters have grounded into 41 double plays in 288 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Cubs hitters are slugging .657 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .565.

Cubs hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Cubs hitters have 632 strikeouts in 2,538 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% this month (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 26% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

The Cubs have won just 12% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.

Cubs pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Cubs pitchers have won only 16% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Cubs vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
  • Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
  • Andrelton Simmons (Cubs): Shoulder, D10
  • Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • James McCann (Mets): Oblique, D10
  • Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Cubs vs Mets and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.