Mets vs Cubs Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 17

min read
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 17, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Mets (58-34) are -145 favorites vs the Cubs (34-57)
  • Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson (5-2), 3.47 ERA
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Adrian Sampson (0-1), 3.33 ERA
  • Watch the game on MARQ

The New York Mets (-145) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+120) on Sunday, July 17, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Mets vs Cubs Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mets are 58-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 45-46 ATS.

Mets vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets-1.5 +120O 8 -115-145
Cubs +1.5 -145U 8 -105+120

Mets vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s matchup with 76.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Cubs vs Mets and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 30 of his last 47 away games (+13.00 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+11.85 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+11.85 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Taijuan Walker has hit the Pitching Outs Over in his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 82% ROI)

Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+13.40 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 38 games (+12.95 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Singles Under in his last 12 games at home (+12.00 Units / 73% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+11.60 Units / 129% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 43 games (+9.95 Units / 17% ROI)

Cubs vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christopher Morel 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
David Bote 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Frank Schwindel 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Ian Happ 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Nelson Velazquez 0.5 +575 0.5 -1600

Cubs vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christopher Morel 0.5 -160 0.5 +110
David Bote 0.5 -135 0.5 -105
Frank Schwindel 0.5 -185 0.5 +125
Ian Happ 0.5 -185 0.5 +125
Nelson Velazquez 0.5 -105 0.5 -135

Cubs vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christopher Morel 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
David Bote 0.5 +225 0.5 -350
Frank Schwindel 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
Ian Happ 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Nelson Velazquez 0.5 +260 0.5 -400

Cubs vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adrian Sampson 3.5 +130 3.5 -185
David Peterson 5.5 -145 5.5 +100
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 92 games (+16.55 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 52 of their last 92 games (+9.32 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 33 of their last 58 games (+9.00 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 54 games (+8.85 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 92 games (+5.75 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 52 of their last 90 games (+13.95 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 64 games (+7.25 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 14 games (+4.80 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+1.95 Units / 16% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 49-43 against the Run Line (+5.75 Units / 5.17% ROI).

  • 58-34 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.55 Units / 12.69% ROI
  • 47-39 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.9 Units / 3.82% ROI
  • 39-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.05 Units / -11.99% ROI

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 45-46 against the Run Line (-8.65 Units / -7.4% ROI).

  • 34-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.9 Units / -19.72% ROI
  • 42-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.35 Units / -6.32% ROI
  • 44-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.05 Units / -2.05% ROI

David Peterson has thrown his changeup for a strike just 45% (91/201) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.

David Peterson has a first-pitch strike rate of just 51% (144/284) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.

David Peterson has walked 8 of 46 right-handed batters (17%) this month (3 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.

David Peterson has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 47% (84/178) of right-handed hitters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: 66% — 0 Percentile.

Adrian Sampson: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Adrian Sampson has a strikeout rate of just 29% (12 SO in 41 PAs) with two-strikes this month (3 games) — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — eighth Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 53% (16/30) against Adrian Sampson this month (3 games) — tied for 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 87th Percentile.

Adrian Sampson has allowed an OPS of .635 (41 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (3 games) — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .456 — 11th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .237 (9-for-38) against Adrian Sampson with two-strikes this month (3 games) — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .149 — sixth Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Mets are 28-15 (.651) at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .521.

The Mets are 30-19 (.612) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .479.

The Mets are 49-2 (.961) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Mets are 19-5 (.792) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .708.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Cubs are just 4-25 (.138) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.

The Cubs are just 17-32 (.347) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.

The Cubs are just 7-38 (.156) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.

The Cubs are just 10-45 (.182) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .297.

The Mets have scored first in 74% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Mets hitters are slugging just .378 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Mets hitters have 194 extra-base hits out of 622 total hits (just 31%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .324 (3,510 PA’s) this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .312.

The Cubs have won just 48% of games in which they have scored first at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 73%.

Cubs hitters have 1,778 strikeouts in 6,910 PA’s (26%) against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Cubs hitters are slugging .659 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .563.

Cubs hitters are slugging just .360 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .441.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% over the last 14 days (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 26% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 53% with two-strikes this month (16 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% this month (16 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Cubs pitchers have walked 907 of 9,720 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Cubs pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 55% of their games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

The Cubs have won just 11% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.

Cubs vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
  • Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
  • Andrelton Simmons (Cubs): Shoulder, D10
  • Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • James McCann (Mets): Oblique, D10
  • Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Cubs vs Mets and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.