- The Mets (58-34) are -145 favorites vs the Cubs (34-57)
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson (5-2), 3.47 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Adrian Sampson (0-1), 3.33 ERA
- Watch the game on MARQ
The New York Mets (-145) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+120) on Sunday, July 17, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Mets vs Cubs Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mets are 58-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 45-46 ATS.
Mets vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +120 | O 8 -115 | -145 |
| Cubs | +1.5 -145 | U 8 -105 | +120 |
Mets vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s matchup with 76.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 30 of his last 47 away games (+13.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+11.85 Units / 28% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+11.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Taijuan Walker has hit the Pitching Outs Over in his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 82% ROI)
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+13.40 Units / 61% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 38 games (+12.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Singles Under in his last 12 games at home (+12.00 Units / 73% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+11.60 Units / 129% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 43 games (+9.95 Units / 17% ROI)
Cubs vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| David Bote | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Frank Schwindel | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Nelson Velazquez | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1600 |
Cubs vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +110 |
| David Bote | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
| Frank Schwindel | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
| Nelson Velazquez | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -135 |
Cubs vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| David Bote | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Frank Schwindel | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Nelson Velazquez | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
Cubs vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adrian Sampson | 3.5 +130 | 3.5 -185 |
| David Peterson | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +100 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 92 games (+16.55 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 52 of their last 92 games (+9.32 Units / 9% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 33 of their last 58 games (+9.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 54 games (+8.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 92 games (+5.75 Units / 5% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 52 of their last 90 games (+13.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 64 games (+7.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 14 games (+4.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+1.95 Units / 16% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 49-43 against the Run Line (+5.75 Units / 5.17% ROI).
- 58-34 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.55 Units / 12.69% ROI
- 47-39 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.9 Units / 3.82% ROI
- 39-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.05 Units / -11.99% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 45-46 against the Run Line (-8.65 Units / -7.4% ROI).
- 34-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.9 Units / -19.72% ROI
- 42-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.35 Units / -6.32% ROI
- 44-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.05 Units / -2.05% ROI
David Peterson: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
David Peterson has thrown his changeup for a strike just 45% (91/201) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
David Peterson has a first-pitch strike rate of just 51% (144/284) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
David Peterson has walked 8 of 46 right-handed batters (17%) this month (3 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
David Peterson has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 47% (84/178) of right-handed hitters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: 66% — 0 Percentile.
Adrian Sampson: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adrian Sampson has a strikeout rate of just 29% (12 SO in 41 PAs) with two-strikes this month (3 games) — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — eighth Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 53% (16/30) against Adrian Sampson this month (3 games) — tied for 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 87th Percentile.
Adrian Sampson has allowed an OPS of .635 (41 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (3 games) — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .456 — 11th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .237 (9-for-38) against Adrian Sampson with two-strikes this month (3 games) — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .149 — sixth Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Mets are 28-15 (.651) at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Mets are 30-19 (.612) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .479.
The Mets are 49-2 (.961) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Mets are 19-5 (.792) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .708.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Cubs are just 4-25 (.138) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.
The Cubs are just 17-32 (.347) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Cubs are just 7-38 (.156) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Cubs are just 10-45 (.182) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .297.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in 74% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mets hitters are slugging just .378 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Mets hitters have 194 extra-base hits out of 622 total hits (just 31%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .324 (3,510 PA’s) this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs have won just 48% of games in which they have scored first at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 73%.
Cubs hitters have 1,778 strikeouts in 6,910 PA’s (26%) against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs hitters are slugging .659 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .563.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .360 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .441.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% over the last 14 days (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 26% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 53% with two-strikes this month (16 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% this month (16 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 907 of 9,720 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 55% of their games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
The Cubs have won just 11% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Cubs vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
- Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
- Andrelton Simmons (Cubs): Shoulder, D10
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- James McCann (Mets): Oblique, D10
- Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
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