Mets vs Cubs Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 22

FILE - Chicago Cubs' Cody Bellinger watches his home run during the third inning of a baseball game against the New York Yankees, July 7, 2023, in New York. There are still some premium free agents available for Major League Baseball teams as the calendar nears March. Two-time Cy Young Winner Blake Snell, six-time All-Star J.D. Martinez and former MVP Cody Bellinger are among the players who haven't found a home. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II, File)
(AP Photo/Frank Franklin II, File)
  • The Mets are -105 favorites vs the Cubs
  • Mets vs Cubs Over / Under today: 12 Runs
  • Mets / Cubs TV Channel: FS1 | SNY | MARQ

The New York Mets (-115) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-105) on Saturday, June 22, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago, IL.

This season, the Mets are 36-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 36-40 ATS.

Mets vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Mets starting pitcher: Tylor Megill 2-3, 3.53 ERA
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon 3-3, 3.08 ERA

Mets vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets-1.5 +135O 11 -105-115
Cubs +1.5 -160U 11 -115-105

Mets vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 24 away games (+18.70 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+16.20 Units / 405% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 away games (+11.85 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 33 of his last 48 games (+10.15 Units / 14% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Over in 19 of his last 37 games (+10.05 Units / 27% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Christopher Morel has hit the Total Bases Under in 27 of his last 34 games (+20.35 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 23 games (+16.90 Units / 73% ROI)
  • Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 34 games (+14.80 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 27 of his last 39 games (+13.80 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Christopher Morel has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+12.45 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 30 away games (+13.20 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 30 away games (+12.80 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 33 away games (+9.55 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 games (+9.30 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 26 games (+7.20 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 35 of their last 50 games (+18.50 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 64 games (+9.55 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+9.45 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 38 games at home (+1.70 Units / 3% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.35 Units / 3% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 35-39 against the Run Line (-6.55 Units / -6.79% ROI).

  • 36-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.65 Units / -4.33% ROI
  • 37-33 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.6 Units / 0.75% ROI
  • 33-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.9 Units / -8.82% ROI

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 36-40 against the Run Line (-12.35 Units / -11.7% ROI).

  • 36-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.15 Units / -5.5% ROI
  • 33-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -12 Units / -14.34% ROI
  • 41-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.85 Units / 5.8% ROI

Cubs vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Pete Alonso (NYM) 0.5 +200 0.5 -250
J.D Martinez (NYM) 0.5 +225 0.5 -275
Francisco Lindor (NYM) 0.5 +230 0.5 -300
Christopher Morel (CHC) 0.5 +260 0.5 -350
Mark Vientos (NYM) 0.5 +260 0.5 -350

Cubs vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Mark Vientos (NYM) 0.5 -275 0.5 +195
Christopher Morel (CHC) 0.5 -250 0.5 +180
Francisco Alvarez (NYM) 0.5 -250 0.5 +185
Dansby Swanson (CHC) 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Jeff McNeil (NYM) 0.5 -225 0.5 +165

Cubs vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
J.D Martinez (NYM) 0.5 -105 0.5 -125
Pete Alonso (NYM) 0.5 +100 0.5 -130
Cody Bellinger (CHC) 0.5 +105 0.5 -140
Francisco Lindor (NYM) 0.5 +110 0.5 -145
Seiya Suzuki (CHC) 0.5 +115 0.5 -150

Cubs vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jameson Taillon (CHC) 4.5 -115 4.5 -115
Tylor Megill (NYM) 5.5 +115 5.5 -150

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 23% (96/425) against Tylor Megill with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 31% — first Percentile.

Tylor Megill has a first-pitch strike rate of just 54% (379/700) since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 94 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.

Tylor Megill has a strike rate of just 61% (1,679/2,763) since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 94 total IP; League Avg: 64% — third Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .429 (33-for-77) against Tylor Megill on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 94 total IP; League Avg: .344 — fourth Percentile.

Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 23% (7/31) against Jameson Taillon this month (3 games) — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — second Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 20% (4/20) against Jameson Taillon — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.

Jameson Taillon has walked 12 of 463 right-handed batters (3%) since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 94 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.

Jameson Taillon has a strikeout rate of just 12% (12 SO in 99 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 29 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 0 Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Mets are 5-29 (.147) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .058.

The Mets are just 23-10 (.697) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .891.

The Mets are just 28-6 (.824) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .942.

The Mets are 7-3 (.700) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Cubs are just 3-12 (.200) after a road win this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .456.

The Cubs are just 45-44 (.506) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .588.

The Cubs are just 5-173 (.028) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.

The Cubs are just 6-92 (.061) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .103.

The Mets are batting .278 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.

Mets hitters are slugging .599 against LHP this month (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Mets hitters have an OPS of .774 (822 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

Mets hitters are slugging .449 on the road this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .387.

Cubs hitters are slugging just .326 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .603.

The Cubs have a winning percentage of just 40% on the road this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Cubs hitters are slugging .460 in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .369.

The Cubs are batting .165 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .154.

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Mets pitchers have walked 65 of 667 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Mets pitchers have walked 285 of 2,840 batters (10%) this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Cubs pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 34 double plays in 557 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Cubs pitchers this month (18 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 45% of their games since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Cubs vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Patrick Wisdom (Chicago Cubs): Back, 10-Day IL
  • Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
  • Brennen Davis (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, Out
  • Tyler Duffey (Chicago Cubs): Back, Day-To-Day
  • Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs): Back, 15-Day IL
  • Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
  • Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
  • Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
  • David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
  • Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL

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Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.