- The Mets are -105 favorites vs the Cubs
- Mets starting pitcher: Kodai Senga
- Cubs starting pitcher: Todd Smyly
- Watch the game on MARQ
The New York Mets (-105) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-115) on Tuesday, May 23, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Chicago.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Mets vs Cubs Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 25-23 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 25-21 ATS.
Mets vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +155 | O 8.5 -105 | -105 |
| Cubs | +1.5 -190 | U 8.5 -115 | -115 |
Mets vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 52.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Mets vs Cubs and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.35 Units / 50% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+10.20 Units / 68% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 21 games (+9.50 Units / 40% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+9.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.05 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 39 games (+14.80 Units / 20% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 12 games (+12.80 Units / 81% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Runs Over in his last 7 games (+11.45 Units / 164% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Over in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 72% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 71% ROI)
Cubs vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
Cubs vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Cubs vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Cubs vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Smyly | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -115 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 75% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 38 games (+3.40 Units / 8% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 11 games (+8.85 Units / 75% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+6.90 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 42 games (+4.90 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games at home (+4.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 22 games at home (+3.50 Units / 14% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 17-31 against the Run Line (-15.05 Units / -26.08% ROI).
- 25-23 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.25 Units / -14.09% ROI
- 22-25 when betting on the total runs Over for -6 Units / -11.24% ROI
- 25-22 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.9 Units / 1.72% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 25-21 against the Run Line (+2.25 Units / 3.84% ROI).
- 20-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.65 Units / -12.15% ROI
- 24-21 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.75 Units / 1.49% ROI
- 21-24 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.75 Units / -11.31% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 11% (1/9) against Kodai Senga — 2nd lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 41% — second Percentile.
Kodai Senga has walked 26 of 187 batters (14%) this season — tied for 10th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: 8% — sixth Percentile.
Kodai Senga has walked 15 of 72 batters (21%) versus the top of the order this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: 9% — second Percentile.
Kodai Senga has a strikeout rate of 40% (18 SO in 45 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 49% of the time (377/768) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 98th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 49% of the time (377/768) this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 96th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 37% of the time (165/443) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 99th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has allowed a slugging percentage of .667 (20 Total Bases / 30 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .378 — first Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Mets are 111-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Mets are just 0-20 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Mets are just 1-4 (.200) after a home win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .542.
The Mets are 39-17 (.696) after a loss as favorites since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .596.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Cubs are just 26-13 (.667) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .801.
The Cubs are just 14-23 (.378) after a loss as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .596.
The Cubs are just 5-8 (.385) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .612.
The Cubs are just 20-2 (.909) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .952.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OBP of .335 (5,503 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Mets hitters have just 1,083 strikeouts in 5,503 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Mets are batting .260 on the road since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Mets hitters have chased just 17% pitches with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting just .278 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .350.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .841 (506 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .748.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .358 (506 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .325.
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.08 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .148 against Mets pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 58% of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mets pitchers have walked 175 of 1,789 batters (10%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 7.02 (92.1 IP) over the last 14 days (11 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.18.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Cubs pitchers over the last 14 days (11 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (1,135 batted balls) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Cubs have won just just 6% of the time this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Cubs vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Boxberger (Cubs): Forearm, D15
- Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Right Meniscus, D60
- Cody Bellinger (Cubs): Knee, D10
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D15
- James Yacabonis (Mets): Quad, D15
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Mets): Lat, D60
- Omar Narváez (Mets): Calf, D60
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D60
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
- Tomás Nido (Mets): Eye, D10
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