- The Mets are -150 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Mets starting pitcher: Kodai Senga
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Davies
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The New York Mets (-150) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+125) on Tuesday, July 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Mets vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 38-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 52-33 ATS.
Mets vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +105 | O 9 +100 | -150 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -130 | U 9 -120 | +125 |
Mets vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 54.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+15.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+14.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 32 of his last 45 games (+13.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 31 games (+13.35 Units / 30% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+12.90 Units / 49% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+12.30 Units / 45% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the RBIs Over in 16 of his last 29 games (+11.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+11.50 Units / 35% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 19 games at home (+11.10 Units / 52% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 27 of his last 40 games (+10.85 Units / 20% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -800 |
Diamondbacks vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -250 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
Diamondbacks vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
Diamondbacks vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zach Davies | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -135 |
| Max Scherzer | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 74 games (+7.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games (+4.45 Units / 47% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.45 Units / 18% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 51 of their last 82 games (+18.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 84 games (+17.75 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 46 of their last 77 games (+10.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 77 games (+9.35 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 26 games (+8.95 Units / 29% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 33-51 against the Run Line (-23.95 Units / -22.51% ROI).
- 38-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -26.15 Units / -21.95% ROI
- 36-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.65 Units / -14.76% ROI
- 45-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.3 Units / 5.74% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 52-33 against the Run Line (+17.35 Units / 16.1% ROI).
- 50-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.75 Units / 15.74% ROI
- 39-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.55 Units / -6.92% ROI
- 41-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.05 Units / -1.14% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kodai Senga has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 50% (265/529) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Kodai Senga has a strike rate of just 57% (246/428) in two strike counts this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
Kodai Senga has walked 46 of 355 batters (13%) this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 8% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 36% (81/226) against Kodai Senga this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zach Davies has located his fastball away 63% of the time (257/409) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 99th Percentile.
Zach Davies had a strike rate of just 54% (45/84) — lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Zach Davies has located his fastball away 63% of the time (257/409) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 99th Percentile.
Zach Davies has located his fastball away 65% of the time (1,052/1,631) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Mets are just 2-8 (.200) after a loss as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Mets are just 25-15 (.625) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .785.
The Mets are just 13-15 (.464) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .684.
The Mets are 123-1 (.992) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .953.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Diamondbacks are 12-3 (.800) after a road loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Diamondbacks are just 26-12 (.684) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Diamondbacks are just 98-16 (.860) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .908.
The Diamondbacks are 13-8 (.619) after a loss as underdogs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have just 1,305 strikeouts in 6,524 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Mets have won just 50% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 73%.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .743 (6,524 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .331 (4,925 PA’s) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .301 (2,595 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Diamondbacks hitters have missed on just 22% of swings this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging just .378 against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Diamondbacks have barrels in 2% of PA’s since last season (184/9,233) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 58 of 462 batters (13%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 70 of 732 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strike rate of just 62% this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mets pitchers have walked 307 of 3,160 batters (10%) this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks have won 57% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Diamondbacks pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Kenneth Kelly (Diamondbacks): Calf, D15
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D60
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D60
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
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