- The Mets are -105 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Mets starting pitcher: Kodai Senga
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Thomas Henry
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The New York Mets (-105) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-115) on Wednesday, July 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Mets vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 39-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 52-34 ATS.
Mets vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +150 | O 9.5 -110 | -105 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -185 | U 9.5 -110 | -115 |
Mets vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 53.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 33 of his last 46 games (+14.90 Units / 23% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 32 games (+14.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 26 games (+14.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+10.90 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Corbin Carroll has hit the RBIs Over in 17 of his last 30 games (+12.90 Units / 43% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+12.10 Units / 54% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 28 of his last 41 games (+11.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 40 games (+11.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+11.20 Units / 40% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
Diamondbacks vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
Diamondbacks vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Diamondbacks vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kodai Senga | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
| Tommy Henry | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 75 games (+6.80 Units / 8% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+5.50 Units / 52% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.45 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.10 Units / 1% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 51 of their last 83 games (+17.60 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 85 games (+16.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 47 of their last 78 games (+11.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 27 games (+9.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 78 games (+9.35 Units / 9% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 34-51 against the Run Line (-22.9 Units / -21.32% ROI).
- 39-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -25.15 Units / -20.85% ROI
- 37-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.65 Units / -13.5% ROI
- 45-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.3 Units / 4.6% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 52-34 against the Run Line (+16.1 Units / 14.77% ROI).
- 50-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.75 Units / 14.66% ROI
- 40-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.55 Units / -5.79% ROI
- 41-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.05 Units / -2.19% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kodai Senga has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 50% (265/529) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Kodai Senga has a strike rate of just 57% (246/428) in two strike counts this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
Kodai Senga has allowed a slugging percentage of just .149 (23 Total Bases / 154 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: .275 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 36% (81/226) against Kodai Senga this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tommy Henry has allowed at least one HR in each of his last five games dating back to June 6th — Carlos Carrasco has the longest active streak at 8.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 18% (14/76) against Tommy Henry with two-strikes this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 37% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 28% (8/29) against Tommy Henry — 7th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 45% — 11th Percentile.
Tommy Henry has allowed a slugging percentage of .721 (31 Total Bases / 43 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: .437 — 0 Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Mets are 124-1 (.992) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .953.
The Mets are just 2-8 (.200) after a loss as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Mets are just 26-15 (.634) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .784.
The Mets are just 14-15 (.483) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .684.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Diamondbacks are just 108-10 (.915) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .953.
The Diamondbacks are 38-4 (.905) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Diamondbacks are 12-3 (.800) after a road loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .470.
The Diamondbacks are just 27-12 (.692) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .795.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have just 1,314 strikeouts in 6,563 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .331 (6,563 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
The Mets are batting just .231 at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .745 (6,563 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .301 (2,600 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of just .678 (2,600 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 62 of 468 batters (13%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have a strike rate of just 62% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks have won 57% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Kenneth Kelly (Diamondbacks): Calf, D15
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D60
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D60
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
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