- The Diamondbacks are -135 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The New York Mets (+110) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-135) on Thursday, July 6, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Diamondbacks are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Mets vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 40-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 53-34 ATS.
Mets vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -165 | O 10 -110 | +110 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +140 | U 10 -110 | -135 |
Mets vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 59.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 34 of his last 47 games (+15.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 26 of his last 33 games (+15.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+15.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.65 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 30 games (+11.80 Units / 22% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 21 games at home (+13.10 Units / 55% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the RBIs Over in 17 of his last 31 games (+11.90 Units / 38% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+11.85 Units / 69% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 28 of his last 42 games (+10.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 19 games at home (+10.55 Units / 41% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
Diamondbacks vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Christian Walker | 1.5 +200 | 1.5 -275 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Diamondbacks vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
Diamondbacks vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Carrasco | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -160 |
| Ryne Nelson | 4.5 +130 | 4.5 -175 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 76 games (+7.80 Units / 9% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+4.50 Units / 39% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 45% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 84 games (+18.60 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 86 games (+15.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 79 games (+12.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 79 games (+9.35 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 28 games (+8.95 Units / 27% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 34-52 against the Run Line (-23.9 Units / -22.05% ROI).
- 40-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -24.15 Units / -19.82% ROI
- 37-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.85 Units / -14.59% ROI
- 46-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.3 Units / 5.61% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 53-34 against the Run Line (+17.1 Units / 15.46% ROI).
- 50-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.75 Units / 13.61% ROI
- 40-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.75 Units / -6.95% ROI
- 42-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.05 Units / -1.11% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.034 (30 Total Bases / 29 ABs) on low fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .432 — first Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has a strike rate of just 56% (252/454) vs left-handed batters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .752 (82 Total Bases / 109 ABs) on inside fastballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: .424 — 0 Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .930 (119 Total Bases / 128 ABs) when behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: .595 — 0 Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryne Nelson has a strikeout rate of just 17% (64 SO in 388 PAs) this season — 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 10th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .341 (56-for-164) against Ryne Nelson at home this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — first Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has struck out just 14% (26/190) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .120 (6-for-50) against Ryne Nelson over the last 14 days (2 games) — best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .248 — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Mets are just 2-8 (.200) after a loss as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .412.
The Mets are just 1-37 (.026) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .105.
The Mets are 124-1 (.992) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Mets are just 26-15 (.634) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .785.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Diamondbacks are 12-3 (.800) after a road loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Diamondbacks are just 108-11 (.908) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Diamondbacks are just 98-17 (.852) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .908.
The Diamondbacks are just 27-12 (.692) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .795.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in 62% of their home games since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mets hitters have just 579 strikeouts in 2,870 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mets have won just 53% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 73%.
The Mets have a winning percentage of 57% since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Diamondbacks have barrels in 2% of PA’s since last season (184/9,274) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3%.
Diamondbacks hitters have missed on just 22% of swings this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of just .678 (2,600 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strike rate of just 62% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mets pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 59% of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have walked 71 of 750 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks have won 57% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Kenneth Kelly (Diamondbacks): Calf, D15
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D60
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D60
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
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