• The Mets are -118 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
• Mets vs Diamondbacks Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
• Mets / Diamondbacks TV Channel: FOX

The New York Mets (-118) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-102) on May 9, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 pm in Phoenix, AZ.

This season, the Mets are 15-23 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 23-14 ATS.

Mets vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:

• Mets starting pitcher: Clay Holmes 4-2, 1.69 ERA
• Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Merrill Kelly 1-3, 9.79 ERA

Mets vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Mets vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Mets vs Diamondbacks and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:

• Brett Baty has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.00 Units / 46% ROI)
• Mark Vientos has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 away games (+11.90 Units / 149% ROI)
• Brett Baty has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+9.32 Units / 44% ROI)
• Brett Baty has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.95 Units / 35% ROI)
• Mark Vientos has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.15 Units / 59% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games at home (+18.60 Units / 207% ROI)
• Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.40 Units / 28% ROI)
• Jorge Barrosa has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.50 Units / 39% ROI)
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.10 Units / 26% ROI)
• Adrian Del Castillo has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.30 Units / 62% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 35 games (+16.50 Units / 41% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 40 games (+15.25 Units / 31% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 23 away games (+9.30 Units / 37% ROI)
• The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.70 Units / 74% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 43% ROI)

Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 35 games at home (+15.70 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 50 games at home (+8.70 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 50 games (+6.80 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 50 games (+6.35 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 45 games at home (+5.40 Units / 10% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 14-24 against the Run Line (-8.85 Units / -21.05% ROI).

• 15-23 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.2 Units / -35.26% ROI
• 14-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.25 Units / -22.16% ROI
• 21-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.25 Units / 12.54% ROI

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 23-14 against the Run Line (+4 Units / 7.41% ROI).

• 17-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.85 Units / -4.55% ROI
• 20-15 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.75 Units / 9.2% ROI
• 15-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.8 Units / -16.69% ROI

Diamondbacks vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Diamondbacks vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Diamondbacks vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Mets are just 9-4 (.692) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .862.

The Mets are just 14-20 (.412) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

The Mets are just 15-23 (.395) this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mets are just 0-18 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Diamondbacks are just 0-16 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.

The Diamondbacks are 4-12 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .138.

The Diamondbacks are just 11-4 (.733) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .862.

The Diamondbacks are just 2-10 (.167) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .304.

Mets Hitting Stats & Trends

The Mets are batting just .168 with two outs this season — lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have an OPS of just .414 (705 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have an OBP of just .207 (705 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB.

The Mets are batting just .144 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB.

Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends

The Diamondbacks are batting just .179 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .248 (154 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB.

8% of Diamondbacks’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (113/1,354 PA’s) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .288 (947 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Mets Pitching Stats & Trends

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% versus the bottom of the order this season — best in MLB.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB.

Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

Diamondbacks pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Diamondbacks pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 20 double plays in 266 opportunities (7%) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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