- The Mets are -120 favorites vs the Giants
- Mets starting pitcher: Kodai Senga
- Giants starting pitcher: Sean Manaea
- Watch the game on NBCS-BA+
The New York Mets (-120) visit Oracle Park to take on the San Francisco Giants (+100) on Thursday, April 20, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:45pm EDT in San Francisco.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Mets vs Giants Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 12-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Giants are 7-10 ATS.
Mets vs. Giants Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +140 | O 8.5 -115 | -120 |
| Giants | +1.5 -165 | U 8.5 -105 | +100 |
Mets vs Giants Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 66.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Giants and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+8.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+8.15 Units / 61% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+7.55 Units / 41% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+7.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+6.90 Units / 25% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Giants players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Giants Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Mike Yastrzemski has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.90 Units / 33% ROI)
- Thairo Estrada has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- Joc Pederson has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+7.40 Units / 93% ROI)
- David Villar has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- Thairo Estrada has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+6.70 Units / 56% ROI)
Giants vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Crawford | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Giants vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Crawford | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Starling Marte | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
Giants vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Crawford | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Giants vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kodai Senga | 5.5 -175 | 5.5 +135 |
| Sean Manaea | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 +100 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.40 Units / 30% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.85 Units / 49% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 19 games (+4.45 Units / 20% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 13 away games (+3.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
Giants Best Bets Today:
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 14 games (+1.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 7 games (+0.70 Units / 8% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 11-8 against the Run Line (+4.45 Units / 19.52% ROI).
- 12-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.75 Units / 14.42% ROI
- 8-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.1 Units / -19.48% ROI
- 11-8 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.35 Units / 11.33% ROI
Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Giants have gone 7-10 against the Run Line (-5.35 Units / -21.79% ROI).
- 6-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.95 Units / -34.15% ROI
- 9-8 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.3 Units / 1.61% ROI
- 8-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.85 Units / -9.84% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kodai Senga has a strikeout rate of 61% (14 SO in 23 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Kodai Senga has walked 4 of 16 batters (25%) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 8% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 39% (18/46) against Kodai Senga this season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 33% (62/189) against Kodai Senga in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Giants Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 4% (1/22) against Sean Manaea on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Sean Manaea has thrown fastballs up 73% of the time (72/98) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 98th Percentile.
Sean Manaea has elevated his fastball 73% of the time (72/98) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 99th Percentile.
65% of Sean Manaea’s fastball strikeouts are located away since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 98th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Giants
The Mets are 100-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .955.
The Mets are 10-2 (.833) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
The Mets are 40-10 (.800) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
The Mets are just 4-57 (.066) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Giants Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Giants are 52-59 (.468) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Giants are 28-38 (.424) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .270.
The Giants are just 13-30 (.302) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Giants are just 28-79 (.262) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have just 66 strikeouts in 417 PA’s (16%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .337 (4,711 PA’s) against RHP since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Mets hitters have just 910 strikeouts in 4,711 PA’s (19%) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets hitters are slugging 1.000 against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Giants Hitting Stats & Trends
Giants hitters have an OPS of just .601 (226 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .734.
Giants hitters have an OBP of just .276 (226 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .326.
Giants hitters have 66 strikeouts in 226 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Giants hitters have 188 strikeouts in 678 PA’s (28%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Mets pitchers have walked 20 of 168 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have walked 80 of 718 batters (11%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Giants Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Giants pitchers since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 48% against Giants pitchers in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Giants pitchers have walked 487 of 6,722 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Giants pitchers since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Giants vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Robert Wood (Giants): Hamstring, D15
- Roberto Pérez (Giants): Shoulder, D60
- Luke Jackson (Giants): Elbow, D60
- Austin Slater (Giants): Elbow, D10
- Mitchell Haniger (Giants): Oblique, D10
- Bryce Johnson (Giants): Concussion, D7
- Michael Conforto (Giants): Calf, Day-to-Day
- Luis González (Giants): Back, D60
- Joc Pederson (Giants): Wrist, D10
- Thomas Szapucki (Giants): Left Arm, D60
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D15
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Starling Marte (Mets): Neck stiffness, Day-to-Day
- Justin Verlander (Mets): Teres Major, D15
- Stephen Nogosek (Mets): Elbow, D15
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Mets): Lat, D15
- Omar Narváez (Mets): Calf, D10
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back Spasms, D10
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Elbow, D15
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
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