• The Guardians are -155 favorites vs the Mets
• Mets vs Guardians Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
• Mets / Guardians TV Channel: GDTV | WKYC | SNY

The New York Mets (+125) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-155) on August 4, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 pm in Cleveland, OH.

This season, the Mets are 47-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 54-58 ATS.

Mets vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:

• Mets starting pitcher: Sean Manaea 2-5, 4.44 ERA
• Guardians starting pitcher: Joey Cantillo 8-6, 3.89 ERA

Mets vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Mets vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 57.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Mets vs Guardians and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jorge Polanco has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+13.80 Units / 29% ROI)
• Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.25 Units / 38% ROI)
• Marcus Semien has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+11.60 Units / 36% ROI)
• Francisco Alvarez has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+8.80 Units / 34% ROI)
• Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games (+8.45 Units / 33% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Patrick Bailey has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+23.00 Units / 575% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 20 games at home (+14.25 Units / 37% ROI)
• Chase DeLauter has hit the Walks Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+12.95 Units / 25% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+12.40 Units / 58% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.95 Units / 37% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 35 of their last 50 games (+18.55 Units / 30% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 45 away games (+15.45 Units / 30% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 18 games (+10.80 Units / 56% ROI)
• The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.85 Units / 17% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 away games (+2.30 Units / 27% ROI)

Guardians Best Bets Today:

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games (+8.20 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games (+7.90 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.90 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 50% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 50-61 against the Run Line (-10.45 Units / -7.61% ROI).

• 47-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -34.4 Units / -24.26% ROI
• 48-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.4 Units / -11.5% ROI
• 56-48 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.95 Units / 2.39% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 54-58 against the Run Line (-7.55 Units / -5.17% ROI).

• 57-56 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.85 Units / -2.1% ROI
• 52-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.6 Units / -11.83% ROI
• 61-52 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.2 Units / 2.55% ROI

Guardians vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Mets are just 15-61 (.197) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

The Mets are just 18-20 (.474) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams this season Today, they face the Guardians (ninth runs allowed).

The Mets are just 42-57 (.424) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Mets are just 5-50 (.091) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Guardians are 18-5 (.783) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 5th best in MLB.

The Guardians are 18-5 (.783) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2025 season — 5th best in MLB.

The Guardians were just 3-61 (.047) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.

The Guardians were 71-2 (.973) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.

Mets Hitting Stats & Trends

Mets hitters have an OPS of just .678 (3,074 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters are slugging just .376 against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have an OBP of just .303 (4,232 PA’s) this season — lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have an OPS of just .631 (1,080 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends

The Guardians are batting just .197 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB.

The Guardians are batting just .216 on the road this season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .372 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters have an OBP of just .271 (470 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB.

Mets Pitching Stats & Trends

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 68% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB.

The Mets have won just 9% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Mets pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 58% of their games this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Mets won just 16% of the time this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% in late innings this season — best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Guardians pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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