• The Mets are -115 favorites vs the Guardians
• Mets vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
• Mets / Guardians TV Channel: GDTV | SNY

The New York Mets (-115) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-105) on August 5, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 pm in Cleveland, OH.

This season, the Mets are 48-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 54-59 ATS.

Mets vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:

• Mets starting pitcher: Christian Scott 3-3, 2.99 ERA
• Guardians starting pitcher: Tanner Bibee 4-11, 3.84 ERA

Mets vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Mets vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 51.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:

• Carson Benge has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 away games (+11.75 Units / 31% ROI)
• Marcus Semien has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+11.65 Units / 37% ROI)
• A.J. Ewing has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+11.35 Units / 30% ROI)
• Christian Scott has hit the Strikeouts Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.95 Units / 51% ROI)
• Francisco Alvarez has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+8.95 Units / 35% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Patrick Bailey has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+23.00 Units / 575% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 20 games at home (+14.25 Units / 36% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.95 Units / 37% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+11.85 Units / 38% ROI)
• Chase DeLauter has hit the Walks Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+10.45 Units / 25% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 45 games (+17.65 Units / 32% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 50 away games (+14.15 Units / 25% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.60 Units / 47% ROI)
• The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 35 games (+6.25 Units / 14% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.45 Units / 37% ROI)

Guardians Best Bets Today:

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games (+7.40 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 50 games (+5.70 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.30 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.60 Units / 20% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 51-61 against the Run Line (-9.45 Units / -6.79% ROI).

• 48-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -33.25 Units / -23.28% ROI
• 49-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.4 Units / -10.62% ROI
• 56-49 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.75 Units / 1.4% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 54-59 against the Run Line (-8.55 Units / -5.81% ROI).

• 57-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.2 Units / -3.07% ROI
• 53-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.6 Units / -10.93% ROI
• 61-53 when betting on the total runs Under for +2 Units / 1.58% ROI

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Mets are just 15-61 (.197) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

The Mets are just 43-57 (.430) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Mets are just 26-40 (.394) after a loss this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

The Mets are just 8-28 (.222) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Guardians are 18-5 (.783) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 5th best in MLB.

The Guardians are 18-5 (.783) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2025 season — 5th best in MLB.

The Guardians were 77-2 (.975) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .899.

The Guardians were 71-2 (.973) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.

Mets Hitting Stats & Trends

Mets hitters have an OBP of just .303 (4,270 PA’s) this season — tied for lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have an OPS of just .632 (1,081 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have 29 extra-base hits out of 120 total hits (just 24%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters are slugging just .377 against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends

Guardians hitters are slugging just .369 this season — lowest in MLB.

The Guardians are batting just .201 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .371 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB.

The Guardians are batting just .216 on the road this season — lowest in MLB.

Mets Pitching Stats & Trends

The Mets have won just 9% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Mets pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 58% of their games this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 68% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Mets won just 16% of the time this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% in late innings this season — best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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