• The Guardians are -120 favorites vs the Mets
• Mets vs Guardians Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
• Mets / Guardians TV Channel: GDTV | SNY

The New York Mets (+100) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-120) on August 6, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 pm in Cleveland, OH.

This season, the Mets are against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are ATS.

Mets vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:

• Mets starting pitcher: Nolan McLean 7-7, 3.29 ERA
• Guardians starting pitcher: Foster Griffin 12-3, 3.06 ERA

Mets vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Mets vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 52.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Mets vs Guardians and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:

• Carson Benge has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 away games (+14.20 Units / 177% ROI)
• Carson Benge has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 away games (+13.95 Units / 29% ROI)
• Marcus Semien has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+11.75 Units / 38% ROI)
• A.J. Ewing has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+11.35 Units / 31% ROI)
• Francisco Alvarez has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+8.95 Units / 35% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Patrick Bailey has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games at home (+22.00 Units / 440% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 20 games at home (+14.25 Units / 36% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+11.85 Units / 38% ROI)
• Nate Lowe has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.55 Units / 34% ROI)
• Chase DeLauter has hit the Walks Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+7.75 Units / 19% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 40 games (+17.65 Units / 36% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 50 away games (+14.15 Units / 25% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.50 Units / 39% ROI)
• The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 35 games (+6.25 Units / 14% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 away games (+4.45 Units / 42% ROI)

Guardians Best Bets Today:

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 45 games (+6.30 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 45 games (+4.75 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.80 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.60 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 23 games (+2.35 Units / 8% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).

• away moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
• away total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
• away total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Guardians are against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).

• home moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
• home total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
• home total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI

Guardians vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Mets are just 26-40 (.394) after a loss this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

The Mets are just 15-61 (.197) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

The Mets are 22-8 (.733) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 4th best in MLB.

The Mets are 12-1 (.923) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Guardians are 18-5 (.783) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 5th best in MLB.

The Guardians are 18-5 (.783) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2025 season — 5th best in MLB.

The Guardians were 33-4 (.868) when they had 10 or more hits in the 2025 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .743.

The Guardians were 82-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .949.

Mets Hitting Stats & Trends

Mets hitters have an OPS of just .679 (3,123 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have an OBP of just .300 (3,123 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have an OPS of just .656 (1,351 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have an OPS of just .630 (1,093 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends

The Guardians are batting just .216 on the road this season — lowest in MLB.

The Guardians are batting just .217 with two outs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .657 (1,317 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .359 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Mets Pitching Stats & Trends

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 68% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best in MLB.

The Mets have won just 9% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Mets pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 60 double plays in 809 opportunities (7%) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 4% of innings played this season — tied for lowest in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 2.96 (273.1 IP) against division opponents this season — tied for best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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