- The Mets are -115 favorites vs the Marlins
- Mets starting pitcher: Tylor Megill
- Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera
- Watch the game on BSFL
The New York Mets (-115) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-105) on Saturday, April 1, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Miami.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Mets vs Marlins Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 0-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 0-0 ATS.
Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +145 | O 8 -105 | -115 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -175 | U 8 -115 | -105 |
Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 60.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Brett Baty has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in his last 2 away games (+2.95 Units / 86% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the RBIs Over in his last away game (+2.05 Units / 205% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 71% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Avisail Garcia has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Peyton Burdick has hit the Singles Over in his last 3 games at home (+5.45 Units / 182% ROI)
- Jordan Groshans has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.50 Units / 56% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Jordan Groshans has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+2.75 Units / 23% ROI)
Marlins vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 +1200 | 0.5 |
Marlins vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
Marlins vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
Marlins vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tylor Megill | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +110 |
| Edward Cabrera | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 88 of their last 165 games (+18.75 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 89 of their last 166 games (+11.60 Units / 6% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 89 of their last 166 games (+11.15 Units / 5% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 92 of their last 165 games (+7.27 Units / 4% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 53 games (+6.35 Units / 10% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 95 games (+23.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+11.50 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 27 games at home (+10.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 83 of their last 163 games (+5.10 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 19 games (+2.70 Units / 12% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 0-0 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 0-0 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tylor Megill has allowed a slugging percentage of .568 (150 Total Bases / 264 ABs) vs left-handed batters since the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: .392 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .380 (27-for-71) against Tylor Megill on low fastballs since the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: .273 — second Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .307 (81-for-264) against Tylor Megill since the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: .237 — fourth Percentile.
Tylor Megill has allowed a slugging percentage of .606 (43 Total Bases / 71 ABs) on low fastballs since the 2021 season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: .428 — fifth Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted just .177 (44-for-249) against Edward Cabrera in 2022 — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 98th Percentile.
Edward Cabrera allowed a BABIP of .207 in 2022 — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .289 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 18% (32/174) versus Edward Cabrera in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Edward Cabrera located his fastball inside 49% of the time (186/378) in 2022 — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 98th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets were 89-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Mets were 38-28 (.576) vs top 10 scoring offenses in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
The Mets were 100-52 (.658) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Mets were 23-27 (.460) vs the 10 runs allowed teams in 2022 — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are just 104-18 (.852) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .910.
The Marlins are just 115-75 (.605) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Marlins are just 112-10 (.918) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Marlins were just 55-9 (.859) when leading entering the 8th inning in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets scored first in 69% of their home games in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mets hitters had an OBP of .336 (4,294 PA’s) against RHP in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Mets hitters struck out just 382 times in 1,923 PA’s (20%) against LHP in 2022 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mets batted .259 in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 830 strikeouts in 3,012 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .630 (3,012 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .725.
Marlins hitters had an OPS of just .597 (1,316 PA’s) against LHP in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .714.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .346 against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers walked 84 of 1,449 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Mets pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games at home in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the 2021 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers won only 15% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers in 2022 — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins have won just 18% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Marlins vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Steven Okert (Marlins): Adductor, D15
- Nicholas Enright (Marlins): Illness, D15
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D15
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D15
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Justin Verlander (Mets): Teres Major, D15
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D15
- Stephen Ridings (Mets): Lat, D15
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D15
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