- The Mets are -125 favorites vs the Marlins
- Mets starting pitcher: Kodai Senga
- Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The New York Mets (-125) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+105) on Sunday, April 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Mets vs Marlins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 2-1 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 1-2 ATS.
Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +135 | O 7.5 +100 | -125 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -165 | U 7.5 -120 | +105 |
Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 62.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Brett Baty has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in his last 2 away games (+2.95 Units / 86% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the RBIs Over in his last away game (+2.05 Units / 205% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 71% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Avisail Garcia has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Peyton Burdick has hit the Singles Over in his last 3 games at home (+5.45 Units / 182% ROI)
- Jordan Groshans has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.50 Units / 56% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Jordan Groshans has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+2.75 Units / 23% ROI)
Marlins vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
Marlins vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Marlins vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Marlins vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Rogers | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -110 |
| Senga | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 88 of their last 165 games (+18.75 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 90 of their last 168 games (+11.70 Units / 6% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 89 of their last 168 games (+9.50 Units / 5% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 92 of their last 165 games (+7.27 Units / 4% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 53 games (+6.35 Units / 10% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 95 games (+23.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+11.50 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 27 games at home (+10.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 165 games (+7.10 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 19 games (+2.70 Units / 12% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 2-1 against the Run Line (+1.95 Units / 65% ROI).
- 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.9 Units / 26.09% ROI
- 1-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.1 Units / -34.38% ROI
- 2-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.9 Units / 26.47% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 1-2 against the Run Line (-2.3 Units / -46% ROI).
- 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.15 Units / -35.38% ROI
- 1-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.1 Units / -34.38% ROI
- 2-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.9 Units / 26.47% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kodai Senga is making his MLB debut today.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 15% (7/47) against Trevor Rogers on curveballs in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 35% — 98th Percentile.
Trevor Rogers threw his changeup 30% of the time (143/477) on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CH; League Avg: 10% — 99th Percentile.
Trevor Rogers allowed a slugging percentage of .520 (169 Total Bases / 325 ABs) against right-handed batters in 2022 — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .406 — sixth Percentile.
Trevor Rogers allowed a slugging percentage of .851 (40 Total Bases / 47 ABs) on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .574 — second Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets were 89-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Mets were 38-28 (.576) vs top 10 scoring offenses in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
The Mets were 88-3 (.967) when leading entering the 8th inning in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Mets were 5-54 (.085) when trailing entering the 9th inning in 2022 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .046.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are just 104-18 (.852) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .910.
The Marlins are just 112-10 (.918) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Marlins are just 115-75 (.605) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Marlins were just 51-14 (.785) when leading entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .882.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters had an OBP of .336 (4,294 PA’s) against RHP in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Mets hitters struck out just 844 times in 4,294 PA’s (20%) against RHP in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mets batted .259 in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Mets hitters had an OBP of .333 (6,217 PA’s) in 2022 — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 830 strikeouts in 3,012 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .346 against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Marlins hitters had an OBP of just .273 (1,316 PA’s) against LHP in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Marlins batted just .208 against LHP in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers had a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Mets pitchers have walked 174 of 2,834 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers walked 84 of 1,449 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins have won just 25% of games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position in 2022 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers in 2022 — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Steven Okert (Marlins): Adductor, D15
- Nicholas Enright (Marlins): Illness, D15
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D15
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D15
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Justin Verlander (Mets): Teres Major, D15
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D15
- Stephen Ridings (Mets): Lat, D15
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D15
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