Mets vs Marlins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 29

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 29, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Mets (61-37) are -120 favorites vs the Marlins (47-52)
  • Mets starting pitcher: Christopher Bassitt (7-7), 3.71 ERA
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara (9-4), 1.80 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSFL

The New York Mets (-120) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+100) on Friday, July 29, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).

The Mets vs Marlins Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mets are 61-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 45-54 ATS.

Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets-1.5 +150O 6.5 -115-120
Marlins +1.5 -185U 6.5 -105+100

Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Friday‘s matchup with 76.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 31 of his last 48 away games (+14.00 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 16 games (+12.90 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Taijuan Walker has hit the Pitching Outs Over in his last 10 games (+10.25 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Over in 17 of his last 28 away games (+8.70 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 37 away games (+8.40 Units / 16% ROI)

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 43 games at home (+15.65 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 16 games at home (+13.20 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+12.85 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+12.15 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 43 games at home (+10.50 Units / 12% ROI)

Marlins vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Avisail Garcia 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
JJ Bleday 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Joey Wendle 0.5 +875 0.5 -5000
Lewin Diaz 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000

Marlins vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Avisail Garcia 0.5 -185 0.5 +130
JJ Bleday 0.5 -130 0.5 -110
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Lewin Diaz 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Miguel Rojas 0.5 -190 0.5 +135

Marlins vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Avisail Garcia 0.5 +225 0.5 -350
JJ Bleday 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Joey Wendle 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Lewin Diaz 0.5 +200 0.5 -300

Marlins vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Sandy Alcantara 5.5 -140 5.5 +100
Chris Bassitt 6.5 +110 6.5 -155
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 98 games (+14.70 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 55 of their last 98 games (+9.17 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.65 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 60 games (+6.55 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 51 of their last 98 games (+4.30 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 27 of their last 45 games at home (+9.10 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 36 games at home (+4.85 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 47 games (+3.05 Units / 5% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 51-47 against the Run Line (+4.3 Units / 3.65% ROI).

  • 61-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.7 Units / 10.52% ROI
  • 49-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.6 Units / 1.47% ROI
  • 43-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.35 Units / -9.65% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 45-54 against the Run Line (-15.65 Units / -11.92% ROI).

  • 47-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.55 Units / -7.94% ROI
  • 48-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.2 Units / -2.92% ROI
  • 47-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.2 Units / -4.78% ROI

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 17% (49/296) against Chris Bassitt this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 17% (40/235) against Chris Bassitt on pitches in the strike zone this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 51% (87/171) against Chris Bassitt this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 82nd Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 16% (27/171) against Chris Bassitt this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.

Sandy Alcantara: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 17% (65/373) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 13% (20/150) against Sandy Alcantara this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Sandy Alcantara has allowed a slugging percentage of just .281 (141 Total Bases / 502 ABs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .379 — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (89/150) against Sandy Alcantara this season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Mets are 43-4 (.915) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .793.

The Mets are 52-3 (.945) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .913.

The Mets are 30-20 (.600) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .475.

The Mets are 20-5 (.800) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Marlins are just 8-23 (.258) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

The Marlins are 30-4 (.882) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .793.

The Marlins are just 6-34 (.150) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .207.

The Marlins are just 114-12 (.905) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Mets have scored first in 69% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Mets hitters have 201 extra-base hits out of 641 total hits (just 31%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

The Mets have a winning percentage of 62% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Mets have a winning percentage of 60% on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .288 (2,450 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.

Marlins hitters have 674 strikeouts in 2,450 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .350 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Marlins hitters have 208 strikeouts in 754 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Mets pitchers have walked 147 of 2,261 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Groin, D10
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
  • Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Castano (Marlins): Forehead, Day-to-Day
  • Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
  • Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Brian Anderson (Marlins): Shoulder, D10
  • Elieser Hernandez (Marlins): COVID-19, D15
  • James Yacabonis (Marlins): Groin, D15
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Wrist, D10
  • Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Dominic Smith (Mets): Ankle, D10
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • James McCann (Mets): Oblique, D10
  • Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.