- The Mets (61-37) are -120 favorites vs the Marlins (47-52)
- Mets starting pitcher: Christopher Bassitt (7-7), 3.71 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara (9-4), 1.80 ERA
- Watch the game on BSFL
The New York Mets (-120) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+100) on Friday, July 29, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Mets vs Marlins Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mets are 61-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 45-54 ATS.
Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +150 | O 6.5 -115 | -120 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -185 | U 6.5 -105 | +100 |
Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Friday‘s matchup with 76.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 31 of his last 48 away games (+14.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 16 games (+12.90 Units / 36% ROI)
- Taijuan Walker has hit the Pitching Outs Over in his last 10 games (+10.25 Units / 82% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Over in 17 of his last 28 away games (+8.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 37 away games (+8.40 Units / 16% ROI)
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 43 games at home (+15.65 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 16 games at home (+13.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+12.85 Units / 53% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+12.15 Units / 62% ROI)
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 43 games at home (+10.50 Units / 12% ROI)
Marlins vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| JJ Bleday | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Joey Wendle | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Lewin Diaz | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Marlins vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +130 |
| JJ Bleday | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 -110 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Lewin Diaz | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Miguel Rojas | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
Marlins vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| JJ Bleday | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Joey Wendle | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Lewin Diaz | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
Marlins vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +100 |
| Chris Bassitt | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -155 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 98 games (+14.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 55 of their last 98 games (+9.17 Units / 8% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.65 Units / 43% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 60 games (+6.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 51 of their last 98 games (+4.30 Units / 4% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 27 of their last 45 games at home (+9.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 36 games at home (+4.85 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 47 games (+3.05 Units / 5% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 51-47 against the Run Line (+4.3 Units / 3.65% ROI).
- 61-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.7 Units / 10.52% ROI
- 49-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.6 Units / 1.47% ROI
- 43-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.35 Units / -9.65% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 45-54 against the Run Line (-15.65 Units / -11.92% ROI).
- 47-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.55 Units / -7.94% ROI
- 48-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.2 Units / -2.92% ROI
- 47-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.2 Units / -4.78% ROI
Christopher Bassitt: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 17% (49/296) against Chris Bassitt this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 17% (40/235) against Chris Bassitt on pitches in the strike zone this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 51% (87/171) against Chris Bassitt this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 82nd Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 16% (27/171) against Chris Bassitt this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 17% (65/373) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 13% (20/150) against Sandy Alcantara this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has allowed a slugging percentage of just .281 (141 Total Bases / 502 ABs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .379 — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (89/150) against Sandy Alcantara this season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets are 43-4 (.915) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .793.
The Mets are 52-3 (.945) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .913.
The Mets are 30-20 (.600) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .475.
The Mets are 20-5 (.800) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are just 8-23 (.258) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Marlins are 30-4 (.882) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .793.
The Marlins are just 6-34 (.150) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .207.
The Marlins are just 114-12 (.905) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in 69% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mets hitters have 201 extra-base hits out of 641 total hits (just 31%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
The Mets have a winning percentage of 62% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Mets have a winning percentage of 60% on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .288 (2,450 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Marlins hitters have 674 strikeouts in 2,450 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .350 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Marlins hitters have 208 strikeouts in 754 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have walked 147 of 2,261 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Groin, D10
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
- Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Castano (Marlins): Forehead, Day-to-Day
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
- Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Brian Anderson (Marlins): Shoulder, D10
- Elieser Hernandez (Marlins): COVID-19, D15
- James Yacabonis (Marlins): Groin, D15
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D60
- Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Wrist, D10
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Dominic Smith (Mets): Ankle, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- James McCann (Mets): Oblique, D10
- Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
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