- The Marlins (32-36) are -145 favorites vs the Mets (45-26)
- Mets starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker (5-2), 2.88 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara (7-2), 1.72 ERA
- Watch the game on BSFL
The New York Mets (+120) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-145) on Friday, June 24, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Mets vs Marlins Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mets are 45-26 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 36-32 ATS.
Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -185 | O 7 +100 | +120 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +150 | U 7 -120 | -145 |
Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Friday‘s matchup with 59.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 14 away games (+8.35 Units / 45% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- Eduardo Escobar has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+6.80 Units / 32% ROI)
- Eduardo Escobar has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+6.50 Units / 24% ROI)
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+9.05 Units / 74% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+8.55 Units / 85% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.95 Units / 63% ROI)
Marlins vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jacob Stallings | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
Marlins vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jacob Stallings | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
Marlins vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jacob Stallings | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Taijuan Walker | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +120 |
| Sandy Alcantara | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -150 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 71 games (+13.80 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 23 of their last 37 games (+9.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 71 games (+9.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 33 games (+8.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 71 games (+7.32 Units / 9% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games at home (+10.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 23 games at home (+7.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.90 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 22 games (+3.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 14 games (+2.55 Units / 16% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 40-31 against the Run Line (+9.7 Units / 11.34% ROI).
- 45-26 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.8 Units / 13.94% ROI
- 37-30 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.5 Units / 4.42% ROI
- 30-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.15 Units / -13.15% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 36-32 against the Run Line (+1.45 Units / 1.59% ROI).
- 32-36 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.4 Units / -7.78% ROI
- 35-32 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 32-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.05 Units / -8.13% ROI
Taijuan Walker: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .538 (14-for-26) against Taijuan Walker on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: .333 — second Percentile.
Taijuan Walker allowed an OBP of just .111 (18 PA’s) against right-handed batters — best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .306 — 100th Percentile.
Taijuan Walker has allowed a slugging percentage of just .243 (33 Total Bases / 136 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 9th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: .364 — 91st Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 116 of Taijuan Walker’s 530 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 22%) since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 113 total IP; League Avg: 31% — third Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 12% (13/104) against Sandy Alcantara this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has allowed a slugging percentage of just .114 (13 Total Bases / 114 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .297 — 98th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has allowed an OPS of just .314 (195 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .486 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .107 (19-for-178) against Sandy Alcantara with two-strikes this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .164 — 97th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets are 37-7 (.841) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Mets are 11-3 (.786) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .717.
The Mets are 24-10 (.706) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .515.
The Mets are 21-8 (.724) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are just 0-28 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .077.
The Marlins are just 7-19 (.269) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .327.
The Marlins are just 23-4 (.852) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .900.
The Marlins are just 4-22 (.154) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .206.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in 82% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mets hitters have 168 extra-base hits out of 559 total hits (just 30%) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .279 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .332 (2,707 PA’s) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 633 strikeouts in 2,283 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .646 (2,283 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .332 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .354 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 18% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Marlins have won just 16% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .207 against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Marlins vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Brian Anderson (Marlins): Back, D10
- Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Louis Head (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Jeff McNeil (Mets): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Back, Day-to-Day
- Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Travis Jankowski (Mets): Hand, D10
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Colin Holderman (Mets): Shoulder, D15
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D15
- Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Oblique, D15
- Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
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