Mets vs Marlins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 25

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 25, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Mets (46-26) are -150 favorites vs the Marlins (32-37)
  • Mets starting pitcher: Christopher Bassitt (5-5), 4.02 ERA
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers (3-6), 5.83 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSFL

The New York Mets (-150) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+125) on Saturday, June 25, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Miami.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).

The Mets vs Marlins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mets are 46-26 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 36-33 ATS.

Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets-1.5 +110O 7.5 -105-150
Marlins +1.5 -135U 7.5 -115+125

Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s matchup with 58.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 15 away games (+7.35 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+6.25 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+6.20 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 9 games (+5.40 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Eduardo Escobar has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 16 away games (+5.35 Units / 23% ROI)

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jon Berti has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.20 Units / 92% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Jon Berti has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+8.05 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.95 Units / 65% ROI)

Marlins vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Garrett Cooper 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Jacob Stallings 0.5 +900 0.5 -5000
Jazz Chisholm 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Jesus Sanchez 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200

Marlins vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Garrett Cooper 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Jacob Stallings 0.5 -145 0.5 +100
Jazz Chisholm 0.5 -185 0.5 +130
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Jesus Sanchez 0.5 -150 0.5 +105

Marlins vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Garrett Cooper 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Jacob Stallings 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Jazz Chisholm 0.5 +225 0.5 -350
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Jesus Sanchez 0.5 +250 0.5 -375

Marlins vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Trevor Rogers 4.5 -160 4.5 +115
Chris Bassitt 5.5 -145 5.5 +105
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 72 games (+15.00 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 24 of their last 38 games (+10.90 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 72 games (+10.70 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games (+9.45 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 72 games (+8.32 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 22 of their last 33 games at home (+11.30 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+8.30 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+5.50 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 23 games (+2.00 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 15 games (+1.45 Units / 8% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 41-31 against the Run Line (+10.7 Units / 12.25% ROI).

  • 46-26 when betting on the Moneyline for +15 Units / 15% ROI
  • 38-30 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.5 Units / 5.6% ROI
  • 30-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.2 Units / -14.31% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 36-33 against the Run Line (+0.45 Units / 0.49% ROI).

  • 32-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.8 Units / -9.32% ROI
  • 36-32 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 1.3% ROI
  • 32-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.1 Units / -9.4% ROI

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 16% (35/222) against Chris Bassitt this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 15% (18/121) against Chris Bassitt this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 18% (61/345) against Chris Bassitt since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 114 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 23% (78/343) against Chris Bassitt on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — second Percentile.

Trevor Rogers: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Trevor Rogers has thrown his changeup 28% of the time (76/269) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total CH; League Avg: 10% — 98th Percentile.

Trevor Rogers has walked 19 of 111 batters (17%) versus the top of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 0 Percentile.

Trevor Rogers has thrown low pitches 59% of the time (159/269) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 99th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .436 (44-for-101) against Trevor Rogers in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: .324 — first Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Mets are 38-7 (.844) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The Mets are 23-5 (.821) when scoring in the first inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .674.

The Mets are 34-4 (.895) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .794.

The Mets are 21-8 (.724) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Marlins are just 0-29 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .075.

The Marlins are 22-4 (.846) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .794.

The Marlins are just 4-23 (.148) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .206.

The Marlins are just 27-3 (.900) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .925.

The Mets have scored first in 82% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .332 (1,933 PA’s) against RHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .309.

Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .294 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .216.

Mets hitters have 168 extra-base hits out of 559 total hits (just 30%) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Marlins hitters have 633 strikeouts in 2,283 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters have 781 strikeouts in 2,901 PA’s (27%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .332 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .354 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 18% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% against Marlins pitchers over the past seven days (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Marlins pitchers have picked-off 8 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have won only 14% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Marlins vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
  • Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Brian Anderson (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Louis Head (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
  • Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Jeff McNeil (Mets): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Travis Jankowski (Mets): Hand, D10
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Colin Holderman (Mets): Shoulder, D15
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D15
  • Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Oblique, D15
  • Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.