- The Mets (46-26) are -150 favorites vs the Marlins (32-37)
- Mets starting pitcher: Christopher Bassitt (5-5), 4.02 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers (3-6), 5.83 ERA
- Watch the game on BSFL
The New York Mets (-150) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+125) on Saturday, June 25, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Miami.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Mets vs Marlins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mets are 46-26 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 36-33 ATS.
Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +110 | O 7.5 -105 | -150 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -135 | U 7.5 -115 | +125 |
Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s matchup with 58.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 15 away games (+7.35 Units / 38% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+6.25 Units / 26% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+6.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 9 games (+5.40 Units / 60% ROI)
- Eduardo Escobar has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 16 away games (+5.35 Units / 23% ROI)
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jon Berti has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.20 Units / 92% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+8.05 Units / 61% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.95 Units / 65% ROI)
Marlins vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jacob Stallings | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jesus Sanchez | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
Marlins vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jacob Stallings | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +130 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jesus Sanchez | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
Marlins vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jacob Stallings | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jesus Sanchez | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -375 |
Marlins vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Rogers | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +115 |
| Chris Bassitt | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 72 games (+15.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 24 of their last 38 games (+10.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 72 games (+10.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games (+9.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 72 games (+8.32 Units / 10% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 22 of their last 33 games at home (+11.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+8.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+5.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 23 games (+2.00 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 15 games (+1.45 Units / 8% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 41-31 against the Run Line (+10.7 Units / 12.25% ROI).
- 46-26 when betting on the Moneyline for +15 Units / 15% ROI
- 38-30 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.5 Units / 5.6% ROI
- 30-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.2 Units / -14.31% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 36-33 against the Run Line (+0.45 Units / 0.49% ROI).
- 32-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.8 Units / -9.32% ROI
- 36-32 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 1.3% ROI
- 32-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.1 Units / -9.4% ROI
Christopher Bassitt: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 16% (35/222) against Chris Bassitt this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 15% (18/121) against Chris Bassitt this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 18% (61/345) against Chris Bassitt since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 114 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 23% (78/343) against Chris Bassitt on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — second Percentile.
Trevor Rogers: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Rogers has thrown his changeup 28% of the time (76/269) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total CH; League Avg: 10% — 98th Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has walked 19 of 111 batters (17%) versus the top of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has thrown low pitches 59% of the time (159/269) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .436 (44-for-101) against Trevor Rogers in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: .324 — first Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets are 38-7 (.844) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Mets are 23-5 (.821) when scoring in the first inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .674.
The Mets are 34-4 (.895) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Mets are 21-8 (.724) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are just 0-29 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .075.
The Marlins are 22-4 (.846) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Marlins are just 4-23 (.148) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .206.
The Marlins are just 27-3 (.900) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .925.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in 82% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .332 (1,933 PA’s) against RHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .294 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .216.
Mets hitters have 168 extra-base hits out of 559 total hits (just 30%) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 633 strikeouts in 2,283 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have 781 strikeouts in 2,901 PA’s (27%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .332 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .354 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 18% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% against Marlins pitchers over the past seven days (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Marlins pitchers have picked-off 8 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.
Marlins pitchers have won only 14% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Marlins vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Brian Anderson (Marlins): Back, D10
- Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Louis Head (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Jeff McNeil (Mets): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Back, Day-to-Day
- Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Travis Jankowski (Mets): Hand, D10
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Colin Holderman (Mets): Shoulder, D15
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D15
- Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Oblique, D15
- Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
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