- The Marlins are -115 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets starting pitcher: Tylor Megill, 2.07 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett, 7.20 ERA
The New York Mets (-105) visit Roger Dean Stadium to take on the Miami Marlins (-115) on Monday, March 13, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Jupiter.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Mets vs Marlins Over/Under is 11.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Mets are 3-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 3-10 ATS.
Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -175 | O 11.5 +100 | -105 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +145 | U 11.5 -120 | -115 |
Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Monday‘s Spring Training matchup with 66.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Avisail Garcia has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Peyton Burdick has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 6 games at home (+5.25 Units / 88% ROI)
- Jordan Groshans has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.50 Units / 56% ROI)
- Jordan Groshans has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+2.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- Erik Gonzalez has hit the Total Bases Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+1.05 Units / 11% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 88 of their last 165 games (+18.75 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 127 games (+15.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 20 of their last 29 games (+13.95 Units / 44% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 88 of their last 165 games (+9.75 Units / 5% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 92 of their last 165 games (+7.27 Units / 4% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 95 games (+23.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 50 of their last 86 games (+14.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 90 games (+14.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 16 games (+13.90 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+11.50 Units / 40% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 4-6 against the Run Line (-2.45 Units / -19.37% ROI).
- 3-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.85 Units / -43.49% ROI
- 8-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.95 Units / 54.84% ROI
- 2-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.9 Units / -61.61% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 3-10 against the Run Line (-9.25 Units / -55.56% ROI).
- 3-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.45 Units / -47.45% ROI
- 3-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.65 Units / -40.21% ROI
- 8-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.5 Units / 30.82% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tylor Megill has limited playing time.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
56% of Braxton Garrett’s non-fastball strikeouts were located inside last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 97th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett recorded 62 of his 90 strikeouts (69%) with breaking balls last season — 15th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 91st Percentile.
Opponents had a chase percentage of 45% (117/261) against Braxton Garrett on sliders last season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 94th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett recorded 58 of his 90 strikeouts (64%) with his slider last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets are 89-3 (.967) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Mets are just 10-28 (.263) when their opponents score in the first inning last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Mets are 87-24 (.784) when allowing 4 or fewer runs last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Mets are 36-9 (.800) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are just 55-9 (.859) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Marlins are just 67-76 (.469) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Marlins are just 10-33 (.233) when their opponents score in the first inning last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Marlins are 39-5 (.886) when scoring 5 or more runs last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in 69% of their home games last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mets hitters struck out just 382 times in 1,923 PA’s (20%) against LHP last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets hitters had an OBP of .336 (4,294 PA’s) against RHP last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
The Mets batted .259 last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 830 strikeouts in 3,012 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .630 (3,012 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .725.
The Marlins batted just .208 against LHP last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .284 (3,012 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers had a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets pitchers walked 84 of 1,449 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 15% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Marlins have won just 25% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miami Marlins – No Injuries Reported
- New York Mets – No Injuries Reported
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