• The Mets are -105 favorites vs the Marlins
• Mets vs Marlins Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
• Mets / Marlins TV Channel: MATV | SNY

The New York Mets (-105) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-115) on May 23, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 pm in Miami, FL.

This season, the Mets are 22-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 22-30 ATS.

Mets vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:

• Mets starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta 3-3, 3.34 ERA
• Marlins starting pitcher: Max Meyer 4-0, 2.84 ERA

Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 52.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Mets vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:

• Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+12.95 Units / 27% ROI)
• Bo Bichette has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.25 Units / 38% ROI)
• Juan Soto has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 9 games (+12.00 Units / 133% ROI)
• Mark Vientos has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+9.15 Units / 27% ROI)
• Juan Soto has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.30 Units / 69% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Xavier Edwards has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games at home (+41.00 Units / 512% ROI)
• Javier Sanoja has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+13.35 Units / 54% ROI)
• Javier Sanoja has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.10 Units / 36% ROI)
• Javier Sanoja has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+10.25 Units / 51% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Walks Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.00 Units / 31% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 40 games (+17.20 Units / 38% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 50 games (+14.55 Units / 24% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 30 away games (+10.10 Units / 31% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+2.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 18 games (+2.45 Units / 13% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 50 games (+14.15 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games (+6.45 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 50 games (+4.50 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 40 games at home (+1.85 Units / 4% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.00 Units / 18% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 19-31 against the Run Line (-10.1 Units / -17.84% ROI).

• 22-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.05 Units / -27.16% ROI
• 21-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.85 Units / -13.98% ROI
• 26-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.6 Units / 4.64% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 22-30 against the Run Line (-11.45 Units / -17.19% ROI).

• 23-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.1 Units / -8.13% ROI
• 32-18 when betting on the total runs Over for +12 Units / 20.82% ROI
• 18-32 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.95 Units / -29.87% ROI

Marlins vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Mets are just 14-4 (.778) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .859.

The Mets are just 10-18 (.357) after a loss this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .475.

The Mets are just 1-94 (.011) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .046.

The Mets were 8-2 (.800) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2025 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Marlins are just 8-14 (.364) after a win this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .525.

The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.

The Marlins were just 7-42 (.143) when allowing 2 or more home runs in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.

The Marlins were just 45-10 (.818) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .899.

Mets Hitting Stats & Trends

Mets hitters have an OBP of just .268 (1,122 PA’s) with bases empty this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters are slugging just .357 against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have an OPS of just .544 (431 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have 12 extra-base hits out of 53 total hits (just 23%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

Marlins hitters are slugging just .426 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .606 (433 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have put 41% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .373 against RHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

Mets Pitching Stats & Trends

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — tied for 5th best in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .211 against Mets pitchers this season — tied for best in MLB.

Mets pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB.

Mets pitchers have allowed 43 home runs this season — 4th fewest in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

Marlins pitchers have walked 11% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have a first-pitch strike rate of 63% this season — 5th highest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.25 (176.2 IP) on the road this season — 4th highest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have allowed 59 stolen bases this season — most in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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