- The Mets (87-52) are -160 favorites vs the Marlins (57-80)
- Mets starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco (13-6), 3.90 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Pablo López (8-9), 3.66 ERA
- Watch the game on BSFL
The New York Mets (-160) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+135) on Saturday, September 10, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Miami.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Mets vs Marlins Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mets are 86-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 63-71 ATS.
Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +105 | O 7 -110 | -160 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -130 | U 7 -110 | +135 |
Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s matchup with 62.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 42 of his last 67 away games (+16.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 39 games (+16.30 Units / 19% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+12.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 33 away games (+11.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 26 away games (+11.85 Units / 21% ROI)
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 23 games at home (+13.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 18 games at home (+13.15 Units / 53% ROI)
- JJ Bleday has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+12.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 18 games at home (+10.05 Units / 56% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+10.00 Units / 91% ROI)
Marlins vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| JJ Bleday | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jacob Stallings | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
Marlins vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
| JJ Bleday | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| Jacob Stallings | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -110 |
Marlins vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| JJ Bleday | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jacob Stallings | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
Marlins vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pablo Lopez | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +100 |
| Carlos Carrasco | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- team high – away
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- team high – home
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 74-61 against the Run Line (+12.6 Units / 7.47% ROI).
- 86-49 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.4 Units / 6.49% ROI
- 68-60 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.75 Units / 1.17% ROI
- 60-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.65 Units / -9.88% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 63-71 against the Run Line (-18.9 Units / -10.64% ROI).
- 56-78 when betting on the Moneyline for -25.6 Units / -16.15% ROI
- 58-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.65 Units / -12.57% ROI
- 70-58 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.55 Units / 4.44% ROI
Carlos Carrasco: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carlos Carrasco has allowed an OPS of 1.532 (90 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 1.032 — 0 Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .704 (50 Total Bases / 71 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: .415 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .463 (50-for-108) against Carlos Carrasco when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: .339 — 0 Percentile.
Hitters batting in the top of the order have hit .338 against Carlos Carrasco since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: .260 — third Percentile.
Pablo López: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 39% (92/234) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 38% (138/359) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 31% of the time (189/617) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 39% of the time (186/476) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets are 73-22 (.768) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Mets are 64-5 (.928) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .800.
The Mets are 39-9 (.812) when scoring in the first inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .662.
The Mets are 46-23 (.667) at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .530.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are just 4-62 (.061) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Marlins are just 42-8 (.840) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .884.
The Marlins are just 30-42 (.417) on the road this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .470.
The Marlins are just 8-32 (.200) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .277.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .265 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .220.
Mets hitters have just 712 strikeouts in 3,662 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mets have scored first in 71% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mets hitters are slugging just .380 against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .283 (2,862 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Marlins hitters have 796 strikeouts in 2,862 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .344 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .267 (1,166 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets pitchers have walked 73 of 1,237 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have won only 11% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of 2020 — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins have won just 24% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Marlins vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Braxton Garrett (Marlins): Oblique, D15
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Brett Baty (Mets): Thumb, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Luis Guillorme (Mets): Groin, D10
- Trevor May (Mets): Undisclosed, D15
- Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
- Stephen Nogosek (Mets): Oblique, D15
- Starling Marte (Mets): Hand, Day-to-Day
- Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Side, D15
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
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