Mets vs Marlins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 10

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 10, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Mets (87-52) are -160 favorites vs the Marlins (57-80)
  • Mets starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco (13-6), 3.90 ERA
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Pablo López (8-9), 3.66 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSFL

The New York Mets (-160) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+135) on Saturday, September 10, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Miami.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).

The Mets vs Marlins Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mets are 86-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 63-71 ATS.

Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets-1.5 +105O 7 -110-160
Marlins +1.5 -130U 7 -110+135

Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s matchup with 62.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Marlins vs Mets and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 42 of his last 67 away games (+16.50 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 39 games (+16.30 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+12.35 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 33 away games (+11.95 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 26 away games (+11.85 Units / 21% ROI)

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 23 games at home (+13.30 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 18 games at home (+13.15 Units / 53% ROI)
  • JJ Bleday has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+12.05 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 18 games at home (+10.05 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+10.00 Units / 91% ROI)

Marlins vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Avisail Garcia 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Brian Anderson 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Garrett Cooper 0.5 +675 0.5 -2500
JJ Bleday 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Jacob Stallings 0.5 +900 0.5 -10000

Marlins vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Avisail Garcia 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
Brian Anderson 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Garrett Cooper 0.5 -175 0.5 +120
JJ Bleday 0.5 -145 0.5 +100
Jacob Stallings 0.5 -125 0.5 -110

Marlins vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Avisail Garcia 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Brian Anderson 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Garrett Cooper 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
JJ Bleday 0.5 +225 0.5 -350
Jacob Stallings 0.5 +270 0.5 -450

Marlins vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Pablo Lopez 4.5 -140 4.5 +100
Carlos Carrasco 4.5 -120 4.5 -115
  • team high – away
  • team high – home

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 74-61 against the Run Line (+12.6 Units / 7.47% ROI).

  • 86-49 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.4 Units / 6.49% ROI
  • 68-60 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.75 Units / 1.17% ROI
  • 60-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.65 Units / -9.88% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 63-71 against the Run Line (-18.9 Units / -10.64% ROI).

  • 56-78 when betting on the Moneyline for -25.6 Units / -16.15% ROI
  • 58-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.65 Units / -12.57% ROI
  • 70-58 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.55 Units / 4.44% ROI

Carlos Carrasco has allowed an OPS of 1.532 (90 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 1.032 — 0 Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .704 (50 Total Bases / 71 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: .415 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .463 (50-for-108) against Carlos Carrasco when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: .339 — 0 Percentile.

Hitters batting in the top of the order have hit .338 against Carlos Carrasco since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: .260 — third Percentile.

Pablo López: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 39% (92/234) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 38% (138/359) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 31% of the time (189/617) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 39% of the time (186/476) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Mets are 73-22 (.768) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The Mets are 64-5 (.928) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .800.

The Mets are 39-9 (.812) when scoring in the first inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .662.

The Mets are 46-23 (.667) at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .530.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Marlins are just 4-62 (.061) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Marlins are just 42-8 (.840) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .884.

The Marlins are just 30-42 (.417) on the road this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .470.

The Marlins are just 8-32 (.200) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .277.

Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .265 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .220.

Mets hitters have just 712 strikeouts in 3,662 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Mets have scored first in 71% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Mets hitters are slugging just .380 against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .283 (2,862 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.

Marlins hitters have 796 strikeouts in 2,862 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .344 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .267 (1,166 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Mets pitchers have walked 73 of 1,237 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Marlins pitchers have won only 11% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of 2020 — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Marlins have won just 24% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Marlins vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Braxton Garrett (Marlins): Oblique, D15
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Brett Baty (Mets): Thumb, D10
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Luis Guillorme (Mets): Groin, D10
  • Trevor May (Mets): Undisclosed, D15
  • Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
  • Stephen Nogosek (Mets): Oblique, D15
  • Starling Marte (Mets): Hand, Day-to-Day
  • Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Side, D15
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.