Mets vs Marlins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 11

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 11, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Mets (88-52) are -145 favorites vs the Marlins (57-81)
  • Mets starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker (10-4), 3.59 ERA
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Jesús Luzardo (3-6), 3.35 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSFL

The New York Mets (-145) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+120) on Sunday, September 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Miami.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Mets vs Marlins Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mets are 87-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 64-72 ATS.

Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets-1.5 +120O 7 +100-145
Marlins +1.5 -145U 7 -120+120

Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s matchup with 58.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 44 of his last 69 away games (+18.60 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 41 games (+14.90 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 28 away games (+13.85 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+11.80 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+11.45 Units / 24% ROI)

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+12.85 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+12.30 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+9.65 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 18 of his last 26 games (+9.50 Units / 27% ROI)
  • JJ Bleday has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 45% ROI)

Marlins vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brian Anderson 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Garrett Cooper 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
JJ Bleday 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200
Jerar Encarnacion 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
Joey Wendle 0.5 +950 0.5 -10000

Marlins vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brian Anderson 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Garrett Cooper 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
JJ Bleday 0.5 -130 0.5 -110
Jerar Encarnacion 0.5 -140 0.5 -105
Joey Wendle 0.5 -250 0.5 +170

Marlins vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brian Anderson 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Garrett Cooper 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
JJ Bleday 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Jerar Encarnacion 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Joey Wendle 0.5 +180 0.5 -275

Marlins vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Taijuan Walker 4.5 +115 4.5 -165
Jesus Luzardo 5.5 -125 5.5 -110
Taijuan Walker 3.5 -165 3.5 +120
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 80 of their last 140 games (+12.17 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 28 of their last 49 away games (+6.90 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.90 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.80 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 37 of their last 62 games (+10.80 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 32 games at home (+5.85 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games at home (+3.90 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.70 Units / 39% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 75-62 against the Run Line (+12.7 Units / 7.44% ROI).

  • 87-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.8 Units / 6.13% ROI
  • 70-60 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.75 Units / 2.48% ROI
  • 60-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.9 Units / -11.22% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 64-72 against the Run Line (-19.2 Units / -10.65% ROI).

  • 57-79 when betting on the Moneyline for -25.2 Units / -15.7% ROI
  • 60-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.65 Units / -11.06% ROI
  • 70-60 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.3 Units / 2.87% ROI

Taijuan Walker has a strike rate of just 56% (229/412) on sliders this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 68 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 35% (261/745) against Taijuan Walker on low breaking pitches since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total IP; League Avg: 47% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 23% (119/526) against Taijuan Walker on sliders since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total IP; League Avg: 33% — third Percentile.

Hitters have chased just 67 of Taijuan Walker’s 311 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 21%) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 68 total IP; League Avg: 32% — first Percentile.

Jesús Luzardo: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of .750 (36 Total Bases / 48 ABs) in late innings since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total IP; League Avg: .395 — first Percentile.

Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OPS of 1.150 (56 PA’s) in late innings since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total IP; League Avg: .693 — first Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 47% (76/161) against Jesus Luzardo on changeups this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 68 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 96th Percentile.

Jesus Luzardo has walked 22 of 179 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total IP; League Avg: 6% — 0 Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Mets are 42-6 (.875) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .723.

The Mets are 76-3 (.962) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Mets are 30-6 (.833) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .711.

The Mets are 76-5 (.938) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .884.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Marlins are just 7-34 (.171) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.

The Marlins are 33-5 (.868) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .800.

The Marlins are just 42-8 (.840) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .884.

The Marlins are just 24-75 (.242) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .336 (3,698 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .311.

Mets hitters have just 718 strikeouts in 3,698 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .324 (7,762 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .313.

The Mets have scored first in 71% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .282 (2,866 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.

Marlins hitters have 330 strikeouts in 1,170 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .344 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .585 (1,170 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Mets pitchers have walked 73 of 1,246 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Marlins have won just 21% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.

Marlins pitchers have won only 17% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Marlins vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Braxton Garrett (Marlins): Oblique, D15
  • Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Brett Baty (Mets): Thumb, D10
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Luis Guillorme (Mets): Groin, D10
  • Trevor May (Mets): Undisclosed, D15
  • Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
  • Stephen Nogosek (Mets): Oblique, D15
  • Starling Marte (Mets): Hand, D10
  • Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Side, D15
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.