- The Marlins are -155 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets starting pitcher: José Butto
- Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera
- Watch the game on BSFL
The New York Mets (+125) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-155) on Monday, September 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Mets vs Marlins Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 69-80 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 70-80 ATS.
Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -155 | O 8.5 -105 | +125 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +125 | U 8.5 -115 | -155 |
Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 68.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 32 of his last 41 games (+16.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+14.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 38 games (+13.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- Brett Baty has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 13 away games (+13.15 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Runs Over in 23 of his last 40 games (+12.65 Units / 32% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 36 games (+13.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 36 games (+11.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Runs Over in 24 of his last 42 games (+10.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Under in 30 of his last 40 games (+9.30 Units / 10% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 22 games at home (+9.25 Units / 37% ROI)
Marlins vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Ronny Mauricio | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Marlins vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Ronny Mauricio | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Marlins vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ronny Mauricio | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Butto | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 78 of their last 139 games (+18.55 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 38 games (+12.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 19 away games (+8.24 Units / 36% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 32 games (+3.20 Units / 9% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+8.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 58 games at home (+7.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 53 games at home (+7.52 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 55 games (+7.47 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.74 Units / 57% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 65-84 against the Run Line (-28.05 Units / -14.9% ROI).
- 69-80 when betting on the Moneyline for -30.3 Units / -15.4% ROI
- 60-82 when betting on the total runs Over for -30.65 Units / -18.65% ROI
- 82-60 when betting on the total runs Under for +16.05 Units / 9.81% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 70-80 against the Run Line (-26.9 Units / -13.45% ROI).
- 78-72 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.85 Units / 0.99% ROI
- 69-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.2 Units / -9.23% ROI
- 77-69 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.15 Units / 0.7% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Butto has a first-pitch strike rate of just 47% (21/45) — 3rd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 64% — fourth Percentile.
Jose Butto has a strike rate of just 60% (103/172) — 10th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 65% — 16th Percentile.
Jose Butto has not allowed a home run in any of the last 19.2 innings he’s appeared — Tanner Scott has the longest active streak at 62.2.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 24% (11/45) against Jose Butto on the first pitch of at-bats — 4th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 35% — sixth Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Edward Cabrera has walked 60 of 373 batters (16%) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 17% (66/378) against Edward Cabrera since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 93 of 664 batters (14%) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 17% (34/204) against Edward Cabrera this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets are just 5-37 (.119) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .269.
The Mets are just 2-66 (.029) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Mets are 148-2 (.987) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Mets are 142-12 (.922) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .870.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are just 100-24 (.806) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .870.
The Marlins are 13-139 (.086) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Marlins are 51-8 (.864) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .781.
The Marlins are 7-61 (.103) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have been successful on 71% of their hit & run attempts since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Mets hitters have just 732 strikeouts in 3,541 PA’s (21%) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets hitters are slugging .482 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .451.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .740 (6,021 PA’s) on the road since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .709.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Marlins hitters are averaging just 3.72 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have walked 553 of 5,596 batters (10%) this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D60
- Sandy Alcantara (Marlins): Forearm, D15
- Bryan De La Cruz (Marlins): Ankle, Day-to-Day
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Huascar Brazoban (Marlins): Hamstring, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Edwin Díaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Starling Marte (Mets): Migraines, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Finger, D15
- Brett Baty (Mets): Groin, Day-to-Day
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Lat, D15
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Pec, D60
- Joshua Walker (Mets): Oblique, D60
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