- The Marlins are -155 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets starting pitcher: Joseph Lucchesi
- Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett
- Watch the game on BSFL
The New York Mets (+125) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-155) on Tuesday, September 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Mets vs Marlins Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 70-80 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 70-81 ATS.
Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -160 | O 8 -105 | +125 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +135 | U 8 -115 | -155 |
Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 68.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Mets vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 33 of his last 42 games (+17.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 39 games (+14.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Runs Over in 24 of his last 41 games (+14.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+14.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 away games (+13.50 Units / 49% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Burger has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 37 games (+12.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 37 games (+12.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Runs Over in 24 of his last 43 games (+9.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 17 games at home (+9.25 Units / 54% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 24 games (+8.40 Units / 27% ROI)
Marlins vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Ronny Mauricio | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
Marlins vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Ronny Mauricio | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
Marlins vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Ronny Mauricio | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Marlins vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Lucchesi | 3.5 -125 | 3.5 -105 |
| Braxton Garrett | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +110 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 79 of their last 140 games (+19.55 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 39 games (+13.05 Units / 27% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 20 away games (+9.38 Units / 39% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 33 games (+4.60 Units / 12% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 56 games (+8.47 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 54 games at home (+7.52 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 59 games at home (+6.70 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.64 Units / 43% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 66-84 against the Run Line (-27.05 Units / -14.25% ROI).
- 70-80 when betting on the Moneyline for -28.9 Units / -14.61% ROI
- 60-83 when betting on the total runs Over for -31.85 Units / -19.24% ROI
- 83-60 when betting on the total runs Under for +17.05 Units / 10.36% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 70-81 against the Run Line (-27.9 Units / -13.88% ROI).
- 78-73 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.25 Units / 0.13% ROI
- 69-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.4 Units / -9.89% ROI
- 78-69 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.15 Units / 1.29% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joey Lucchesi has a strikeout rate of just 7% (2 SO in 28 PAs) over the past seven days (1 games) — tied for lowest in NL over the last week; League Avg: 22% — fourth Percentile.
Joey Lucchesi has pitched 14.1 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Sam Hentges has the longest active streak at 22.2.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 61% (14/23) against Joey Lucchesi — 8th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 41% — 92nd Percentile.
Opponents had a chase percentage of just 16% (9/57) against Joey Lucchesi — 3rd lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 30% — third Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (546/1,128) with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .192 (19-for-99) against Braxton Garrett on low fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .261 — 100th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (962/2,311) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 97th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 49% of the time (337/689) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets are just 5-37 (.119) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .269.
The Mets are 148-2 (.987) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Mets are just 6-117 (.049) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .093.
The Mets are just 11-55 (.167) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .219.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are 24-119 (.168) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .130.
The Marlins are 13-139 (.086) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Marlins are 7-61 (.103) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Marlins are 15-52 (.224) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .142.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have been successful on 71% of their hit & run attempts since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Mets are batting .254 on the road since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .745 (8,262 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .351 (1,425 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have grounded into 265 double plays in 2,066 opportunities (13%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have walked 556 of 5,665 batters (10%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Mets pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games at home in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D60
- Sandy Alcantara (Marlins): Forearm, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Huascar Brazoban (Marlins): Hamstring, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Edwin Díaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Starling Marte (Mets): Migraines, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Finger, D15
- Brett Baty (Mets): Groin, Day-to-Day
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Lat, D15
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Pec, D60
- Joshua Walker (Mets): Oblique, D60
Bet now on Mets vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
