- The Mets are -160 favorites vs the Nationals
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin
- Watch the game on MASN2
The New York Mets (-160) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+135) on Monday, May 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Mets vs Nationals Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 20-21 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 25-15 ATS.
Mets vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 -105 | O 10 -105 | -160 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -115 | U 10 -115 | +135 |
Mets vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 67.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.15 Units / 50% ROI)
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.05 Units / 47% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 63% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+8.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+7.95 Units / 43% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+11.65 Units / 42% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+10.10 Units / 37% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+9.95 Units / 57% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 33 games (+9.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.05 Units / 31% ROI)
Nationals vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
Nationals vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
Nationals vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Nationals vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +125 |
| David Peterson | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games (+6.80 Units / 20% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 34 games (+12.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 22 games (+9.80 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 29 games (+6.95 Units / 22% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 16-25 against the Run Line (-10.05 Units / -20.06% ROI).
- 20-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.1 Units / -19.22% ROI
- 17-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.7 Units / -19.12% ROI
- 23-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.3 Units / 9.61% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 25-15 against the Run Line (+8.65 Units / 17.8% ROI).
- 17-23 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.9 Units / 12.25% ROI
- 16-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -7 Units / -15.96% ROI
- 21-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.55 Units / 8.02% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
David Peterson has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 52% (194/377) of right-handed hitters since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 66% — 0 Percentile.
David Peterson has a strike rate of just 60% (1,155/1,931) against right-handed batters since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .400 (20-for-50) against David Peterson on sliders this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: .228 — first Percentile.
David Peterson has allowed a slugging percentage of .679 (38 Total Bases / 56 ABs) on breaking pitches this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: .390 — first Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Patrick Corbin has a strikeout rate of just 5% (3 SO in 58 PAs) versus the bottom of the order this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has struck out just 15% (25/170) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — seventh Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has a strikeout rate of just 15% (30 SO in 197 PAs) this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .289 (54-for-187) against Patrick Corbin this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .242 — 11th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Mets are 108-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .953.
The Mets are just 0-18 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .108.
The Mets are 19-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Mets are just 9-14 (.391) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Nationals are just 33-69 (.324) at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Nationals are just 21-38 (.356) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Nationals are just 72-130 (.356) since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Nationals are just 1-120 (.008) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .047.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in 66% of their home games since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mets hitters have just 1,045 strikeouts in 5,309 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .335 (5,309 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Mets hitters have chased just 17% pitches with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have 52 extra-base hits out of 232 total hits (just 22%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.74 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.
Nationals hitters have 73 extra-base hits out of 307 total hits (just 24%) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals hitters have 8 extra-base hits out of 41 total hits (just 20%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 57% of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Nationals have won just 21% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Chad Kuhl (Nationals): Foot, D15
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D15
- James Yacabonis (Mets): Quad, D15
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Mets): Lat, D60
- Omar Narváez (Mets): Calf, D60
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D10
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Elbow, D15
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
- Tomás Nido (Mets): Eye, D10
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