• The Mets are -115 favorites vs the Nationals
• Mets vs Nationals Over / Under today: 8 Runs
• Mets / Nationals TV Channel: SNY | NATV

The New York Mets (-115) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-105) on May 21, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05 pm in Washington, D.C., DC.

This season, the Mets are 21-28 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 30-19 ATS.

Mets vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:

• Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson 2-4, 5.41 ERA
• Nationals starting pitcher: Cade Cavalli 2-2, 4.05 ERA

Mets vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Mets vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 53.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:

• Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.95 Units / 23% ROI)
• Juan Soto has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games (+10.40 Units / 149% ROI)
• Bo Bichette has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.60 Units / 38% ROI)
• Mark Vientos has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.85 Units / 45% ROI)
• Carson Benge has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.75 Units / 50% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Jacob Young has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+36.00 Units / 900% ROI)
• James Wood has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.50 Units / 35% ROI)
• James Wood has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.40 Units / 34% ROI)
• Curtis Mead has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+8.55 Units / 20% ROI)
• Keibert Ruiz has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.90 Units / 28% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 50 games (+14.75 Units / 26% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 50 games (+13.95 Units / 22% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+6.00 Units / 77% ROI)
• The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 16 games (+4.45 Units / 25% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+2.75 Units / 13% ROI)

Nationals Best Bets Today:

• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 36 of their last 50 games (+20.50 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 50 games (+15.80 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 30 games (+12.55 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 50 games (+10.35 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 50 games (+9.50 Units / 16% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 19-29 against the Run Line (-8.1 Units / -14.84% ROI).

• 21-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -19 Units / -27.94% ROI
• 21-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.65 Units / -10.47% ROI
• 24-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.6 Units / 1.11% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 30-19 against the Run Line (+5.25 Units / 7.54% ROI).

• 25-25 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.5 Units / 16.77% ROI
• 32-15 when betting on the total runs Over for +15.8 Units / 28.7% ROI
• 15-32 when betting on the total runs Under for -20 Units / -36.36% ROI

Nationals vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Nationals vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Nationals vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Mets are just 13-4 (.765) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .863.

The Mets are just 9-18 (.333) after a loss this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .478.

The Mets are just 1-93 (.011) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .046.

The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Nationals are just 0-22 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .055.

The Nationals are 19-3 (.864) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .723.

The Nationals are just 10-15 (.400) at home this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.

The Nationals are just 18-5 (.783) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .863.

Mets Hitting Stats & Trends

Mets hitters have an OBP of just .270 (1,073 PA’s) with bases empty this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have an OPS of just .547 (401 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have an OBP of just .289 (525 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have an OPS of just .658 (1,839 PA’s) this season — lowest in MLB.

Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends

The Nationals are batting just .184 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB.

The Nationals are batting .272 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB.

The Nationals have scored 91 runs in innings 7-9 this season — most in MLB.

Nationals hitters have an OPS of .745 (1,958 PA’s) this season — 4th best in MLB.

Mets Pitching Stats & Trends

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 5th best in MLB.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .215 against Mets pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Mets pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 105 MPH 90 times this season — 4th fewest in MLB.

Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Nationals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB.

The Nationals pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 90.4 MPH this season (1,347 balls in play) — highest in MLB

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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