• The Mets are -110 favorites vs the Nationals
• Mets vs Nationals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
• Mets / Nationals TV Channel: SNY | NATV

The New York Mets (-110) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-110) on September 27, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 pm in Washington, D.C., DC.

This season, the Mets are 74-87 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 90-69 ATS.

Mets vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:

• Mets starting pitcher: Sean Manaea 6-7, 4.68 ERA
• Nationals starting pitcher: Davidjohn Herz 0-1, 9.01 ERA

Mets vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Mets vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 51.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:

• Carson Benge has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+14.15 Units / 50% ROI)
• Carson Benge has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+14.10 Units / 56% ROI)
• Bo Bichette has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+13.00 Units / 217% ROI)
• Carson Benge has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+12.95 Units / 48% ROI)
• Mark Vientos has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.95 Units / 31% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Brady House has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.70 Units / 35% ROI)
• Brady House has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+11.05 Units / 28% ROI)
• Jacob Young has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+10.00 Units / 45% ROI)
• Andrés Chaparro has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+9.15 Units / 37% ROI)
• James Wood has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.10 Units / 37% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 30 away games (+10.85 Units / 30% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 25 away games (+10.35 Units / 37% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 35 away games (+9.95 Units / 28% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 30 away games (+5.90 Units / 15% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 30 away games (+4.50 Units / 14% ROI)

Nationals Best Bets Today:

• The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 50 games at home (+14.55 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 45 games at home (+11.55 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 23 games at home (+8.35 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games at home (+7.30 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+5.55 Units / 19% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 73-86 against the Run Line (-17 Units / -8.41% ROI).

• 74-87 when betting on the Moneyline for -27.45 Units / -13.93% ROI
• 75-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.25 Units / -3.5% ROI
• 73-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.5 Units / -5.41% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 90-69 against the Run Line (+7.2 Units / 3.31% ROI).

• 76-85 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.2 Units / 1.26% ROI
• 84-69 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.65 Units / 4.88% ROI
• 69-84 when betting on the total runs Under for -22.85 Units / -12.92% ROI

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Mets are just 58-37 (.611) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Mets are 52-8 (.867) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB.

The Mets are just 12-40 (.231) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

The Mets are 20-1 (.952) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for best in MLB.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Nationals are just 60-21 (.741) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB.

The Nationals are just 2-64 (.030) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

The Nationals are just 65-15 (.812) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

The Nationals are just 36-26 (.581) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Mets Hitting Stats & Trends

Mets hitters have an OPS of just .491 (3,213 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have 45 extra-base hits out of 156 total hits (just 29%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Mets are batting just .234 at home this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have an OPS of just .687 (2,993 PA’s) at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends

Nationals hitters have an OPS of .795 (1,434 PA’s) when leading off an inning this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Nationals hitters are slugging .242 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB.

Nationals hitters have an OPS of .544 (3,238 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Nationals hitters are slugging .433 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Mets Pitching Stats & Trends

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 67% of their games at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Mets pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 83 double plays in 1,131 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games on the road this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

Mets pitchers have 270 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 3rd most in MLB.

Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends

The Nationals have allowed 1.88 runs per game (302/161) in late innings this season — highest in MLB.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.05 (729.0 IP) at home this season — 3rd highest in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

The Nationals have allowed 5.54 runs per game (443/80) at home this season — 3rd highest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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