- The Mets are -145 favorites vs the Nationals
- Mets starting pitcher: José Quintana
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin
- Watch the game on MASN
The New York Mets (-145) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+120) on Tuesday, September 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Mets vs Nationals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 62-74 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 75-63 ATS.
Mets vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +115 | O 9 -105 | -145 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -140 | U 9 -115 | +120 |
Mets vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 59.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+10.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- Brett Baty has hit the Hits Under in his last 8 away games (+10.30 Units / 106% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+10.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- Brett Baty has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 8 away games (+9.85 Units / 101% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.50 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+12.80 Units / 59% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+12.60 Units / 57% ROI)
- Riley Adams has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+11.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.15 Units / 46% ROI)
- Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 9 games at home (+11.00 Units / 77% ROI)
Nationals vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ronny Mauricio | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jacob Young | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
Nationals vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ronny Mauricio | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Joey Meneses | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Francisco Lindor | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -225 |
| Jacob Young | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
Nationals vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ronny Mauricio | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Jacob Young | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
Nationals vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
| Jose Quintana | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +120 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 away games (+5.49 Units / 33% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.85 Units / 45% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 away games (+2.15 Units / 29% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+13.15 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 74 of their last 132 games (+7.50 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.64 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.45 Units / 24% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 57-79 against the Run Line (-32.4 Units / -18.78% ROI).
- 62-74 when betting on the Moneyline for -30.2 Units / -16.75% ROI
- 55-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -28.05 Units / -18.82% ROI
- 75-55 when betting on the total runs Under for +14.55 Units / 9.83% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 75-63 against the Run Line (+3.4 Units / 2.03% ROI).
- 62-76 when betting on the Moneyline for +20.15 Units / 14.32% ROI
- 65-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.85 Units / -5.17% ROI
- 66-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.75 Units / -3.17% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Quintana had a strike rate of just 56% (54/96) — lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana has allowed an OBP of .400 (25 PA’s) with two-strikes — tied for highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .232 — third Percentile.
Jose Quintana has induced opposing hitters to ground into 31 double plays in 163 opportunities (19%) since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 60% (117/196) — 6th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 65% — sixth Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (40/234) against Patrick Corbin on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — third Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has a strike rate of just 58% (396/678) with runners in scoring position this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Division opponents are hitting .340 (137-for-403) against Patrick Corbin since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 0 Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has a strike rate of just 58% (390/671) in two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
keys to the game – away
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
keys to the game – home
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OBP of .329 (7,907 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .745 (7,907 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .717.
The Mets have scored first in just 38% of their road games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
The Mets have been successful on 71% of their hit & run attempts since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 671 strikeouts in 3,526 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.77 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters have 522 extra-base hits out of 1,721 total hits (just 30%) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
The Nationals are just 2-12 (.143) against the run line (-63.6% ROI) after a win as favorites since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .451.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 511 of 5,187 batters (10%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Nationals have won just 23% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thaddeus Ward (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D60
- Stone Garrett (Nationals): Leg, D60
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Luis Guillorme (Mets): Leg, D10
- Edwin Díaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Starling Marte (Mets): Migraines, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Mark Vientos (Mets): Foot, Day-to-Day
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Pec, D60
- Joshua Walker (Mets): Oblique, D60
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