- The Mets are -125 favorites vs the Nationals
- Mets starting pitcher: José Butto
- Nationals starting pitcher: Joan Adon
- Watch the game on MASN
The New York Mets (-125) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+105) on Wednesday, September 6, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Mets vs Nationals Over/Under is 11 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 63-74 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 75-64 ATS.
Mets vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +125 | O 11 -120 | -125 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -150 | U 11 +100 | +105 |
Mets vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 59.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 39 games (+11.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+11.05 Units / 23% ROI)
- Brett Baty has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 away games (+10.30 Units / 35% ROI)
- Brett Baty has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+9.30 Units / 87% ROI)
- Brett Baty has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+8.85 Units / 82% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Riley Adams has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 22 games (+12.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+12.60 Units / 57% ROI)
- Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 10 games at home (+12.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+10.75 Units / 42% ROI)
- Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.05 Units / 40% ROI)
Nationals vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Ronny Mauricio | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
Nationals vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Ronny Mauricio | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Francisco Lindor | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -225 |
Nationals vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Ronny Mauricio | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
Nationals vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Butto | 3.5 +125 | 3.5 -160 |
| Joan Adon | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +120 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 away games (+4.24 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 away games (+4.20 Units / 44% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 away games (+3.15 Units / 36% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.65 Units / 27% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+12.15 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 74 of their last 133 games (+6.05 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.84 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.45 Units / 28% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 58-79 against the Run Line (-31.15 Units / -17.95% ROI).
- 63-74 when betting on the Moneyline for -29.2 Units / -16.07% ROI
- 56-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -27.05 Units / -18.03% ROI
- 75-56 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.35 Units / 8.94% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 75-64 against the Run Line (+1.95 Units / 1.15% ROI).
- 62-77 when betting on the Moneyline for +19.15 Units / 13.51% ROI
- 66-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.85 Units / -4.48% ROI
- 66-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.95 Units / -3.94% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Butto has limited playing time.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% (16/60) against Joan Adon over the last 30 days (4 games) — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 42% — fourth Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 27% (9/33) against Joan Adon over the last 30 days (4 games) — 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 11th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 21% (4/19) against Joan Adon with runners in scoring position over the last 30 days (4 games) — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 43% — fourth Percentile.
Joan Adon has allowed a slugging percentage of .590 (23 Total Bases / 39 ABs) vs left-handed batters over the last 30 days (4 games) — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: .415 — sixth Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Mets are just 5-35 (.125) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Mets are 144-2 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Mets are just 2-62 (.031) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Mets are just 11-23 (.324) after a road loss this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .464.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Nationals are just 35-157 (.182) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .284.
The Nationals are just 35-63 (.357) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Nationals are just 111-159 (.411) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Nationals are just 55-96 (.364) at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .527.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have just 712 strikeouts in 3,459 PA’s (21%) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .745 (5,879 PA’s) on the road since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .709.
The Mets are just 9-22 (.265) against the run line (-31.1% ROI) after a road loss this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .493.
The Mets are batting just .231 at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have put 41% of their swings in play against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals hitters have just 979 strikeouts in 5,219 PA’s (19%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have just 704 strikeouts in 3,627 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Nationals are just 2-12 (.143) against the run line (-63.6% ROI) after a win as favorites since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .451.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 515 of 5,225 batters (10%) this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets pitchers have walked 115 of 1,209 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thaddeus Ward (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D60
- Stone Garrett (Nationals): Leg, D60
- Lane Thomas (Nationals): Back, Day-to-Day
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Demetrius Stewart (Mets): Back, Day-to-Day
- Luis Guillorme (Mets): Leg, D10
- Edwin Díaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Starling Marte (Mets): Migraines, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Finger, D15
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Pec, D60
- Joshua Walker (Mets): Oblique, D60
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