- The Padres are -130 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets vs Padres Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Mets / Padres TV Channel: SNY | PDTV | MLBN
The New York Mets (+105) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-130) on Monday, July 28, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA, CA.
This season, the Mets are 62-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 57-49 ATS.
Mets vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Frankie Montas 3-1, 4.68 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 3-10, 4.64 ERA
Mets vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -200 | O 8 -105 | +105 |
| Padres | -1.5 +165 | U 8 -115 | -130 |
Mets vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Monday‘s MLB game with 55.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+10.10 Units / 61% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+10.05 Units / 144% ROI)
- Tyrone Taylor has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.85 Units / 41% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+9.60 Units / 31% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.10 Units / 52% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+16.15 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.35 Units / 38% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games (+10.00 Units / 125% ROI)
- Dylan Cease has hit the Earned Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.10 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+8.95 Units / 33% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 46 away games (+11.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in their last 7 games (+7.20 Units / 72% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 away games (+6.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 34 away games (+5.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 47 of their last 86 games (+4.75 Units / 5% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 64 games (+18.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 92 games (+14.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 51 of their last 86 games (+11.05 Units / 11% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 47 games at home (+8.55 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 49 games at home (+5.70 Units / 8% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 53-52 against the Run Line (+1.14 Units / 0.86% ROI).
- 62-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.75 Units / 2.94% ROI
- 46-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.15 Units / -13.79% ROI
- 56-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.15 Units / 4.44% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 57-49 against the Run Line (+4 Units / 2.9% ROI).
- 57-49 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.45 Units / 1.06% ROI
- 43-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.8 Units / -19.55% ROI
- 60-43 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.7 Units / 10.87% ROI
Padres vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
Padres vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Padres vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Gavin Sheets (SD) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Padres vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease (SD) | 6.5 -115 | 6.5 -115 |
| Frankie Montas (NYM) | 4.5 +130 | 4.5 -175 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 30% (82/270) against Frankie Montas since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Frankie Montas threw his off-speed pitches for a strike just 54% (409/763) of the time in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .429 (39-for-91) against Frankie Montas on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: .334 — second Percentile.
Frankie Montas has allowed an OPS of .867 (393 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since last season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: .724 — fourth Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dylan Cease has thrown breaking pitches 53% of the time (206/392) when behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 38% (66/174) against Dylan Cease on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has a first-pitch in-zone of just 48% (233/488) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 56% — first Percentile.
Dylan Cease has thrown breaking pitches 54% of the time (265/488) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are just 0-39 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .041.
The Mets are 17-90 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .096.
The Mets are 18-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Padres are 19-14 (.576) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season They play the Mets (Ranks fifth runs allowed) today.
The Padres are just 3-30 (.091) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .199.
The Padres are 44-31 (.587) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season They play the Mets (Ranks fifth runs allowed) today.
The Padres are 15-3 (.833) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting just .124 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .148.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .222 with runners on base since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .189 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .260.
The Mets have a winning percentage of 58% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 19% of their PA’s this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 19% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres have scored first in 85% of their games against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Mets pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers walked 586 of 6,098 batters (10%) in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 26% against Mets pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Batters facing the Mets pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 63% of the time over the last 14 days — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. over the last 14 days — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 15% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Padres pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 55% of the time this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% over the last 14 days — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 33% of their games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
More MLB Reading:
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