- The Mets are -125 favorites vs the Padres
- Mets vs Padres Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Mets / Padres TV Channel: SNY | PDTV | MLBN
The New York Mets (-125) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (+105) on Tuesday, July 29, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA, CA.
This season, the Mets are 62-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 57-50 ATS.
Mets vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Sean Manaea 1-1, 2.19 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish 0-3, 9.19 ERA
Mets vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +140 | O 8.5 -118 | -125 |
| Padres | +1.5 -170 | U 8.5 -102 | +105 |
Mets vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 51.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ronny Mauricio has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+10.60 Units / 265% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.95 Units / 45% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+9.85 Units / 60% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+9.20 Units / 53% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+9.05 Units / 113% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games at home (+18.00 Units / 257% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+14.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.35 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+8.75 Units / 32% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+7.45 Units / 18% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 47 away games (+10.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 38 games (+6.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.20 Units / 57% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 away games (+5.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 48 of their last 93 games (+4.94 Units / 4% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 65 games (+17.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 93 games (+13.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 51 of their last 87 games (+10.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 48 games at home (+7.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 50 games at home (+6.70 Units / 9% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 54-52 against the Run Line (+2.14 Units / 1.58% ROI).
- 62-45 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.75 Units / 2.31% ROI
- 47-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.15 Units / -12.81% ROI
- 56-47 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.05 Units / 3.46% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 57-50 against the Run Line (+3 Units / 2.16% ROI).
- 58-49 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.45 Units / 1.77% ROI
- 44-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.8 Units / -18.52% ROI
- 60-44 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.6 Units / 9.84% ROI
Padres vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -400 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
Padres vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Padres vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Padres vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Bergert (SD) | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +130 |
| Sean Manaea (NYM) | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +110 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted just .187 (48-for-257) against Sean Manaea when going through the lineup the first time in a game in the 2024 season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — 94th Percentile.
Right-handed batters batted just .190 (98-for-517) against Sean Manaea in the 2024 season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 94th Percentile.
Sean Manaea has thrown elevated pitches 51% of the time (349/682) when behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a groundball rate of just 35% (136/383) against Sean Manaea in the 2024 season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — sixth Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryan Bergert has limited playing time.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Mets are 18-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Mets are 7-2 (.778) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mets are 23-10 (.697) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Mets are 53-13 (.803) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .708.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Padres are 15-3 (.833) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Padres are 20-14 (.588) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season They play the Mets (Ranks fifth runs allowed) today.
The Padres are 9-37 (.196) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Padres are 45-31 (.592) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season They play the Mets (Ranks fifth runs allowed) today.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting just .124 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .148.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .191 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .260.
The Mets have a winning percentage of 70% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
Mets hitters have drawn walks in 11% of their PA’s when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres have scored first in 85% of their games against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 19% of their PA’s this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have chased 42% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Padres batted .275 on the road in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Mets pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have walked 10% of batters since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 10% of batters this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Batters facing the Mets pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 60% of the time over the last 14 days — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. over the last 14 days — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 15% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Padres pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 55% of the time this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 33% of their games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Padres pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 59% of the time over the last 14 days — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. over the last 14 days — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
More MLB Reading:
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