- The Padres are -125 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets starting pitcher: Justin Verlander
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish
- Watch the game on SDPA
The New York Mets (+105) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-125) on Friday, July 7, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Mets vs Padres Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 41-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 42-45 ATS.
Mets vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -200 | O 8 -115 | +105 |
| Padres | -1.5 +165 | U 8 -105 | -125 |
Mets vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 56.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 28 games (+16.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 34 of his last 48 games (+14.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 26 of his last 34 games (+13.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 28 games (+11.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 26 games (+11.65 Units / 32% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.25 Units / 47% ROI)
- Michael Wacha has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.15 Units / 72% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 26 games (+9.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- Brandon Dixon has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+8.35 Units / 33% ROI)
Padres vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Padres vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -110 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
Padres vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -400 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Padres vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Verlander | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -135 |
| Yu Darvish | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 77 games (+8.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games (+5.50 Units / 42% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in their last 5 games (+5.20 Units / 79% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.40 Units / 19% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 80 games (+14.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 77 games (+13.25 Units / 15% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in their last 5 games (+5.70 Units / 100% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 15 games at home (+4.80 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.15 Units / 26% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 35-52 against the Run Line (-22.9 Units / -20.82% ROI).
- 41-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -22.95 Units / -18.68% ROI
- 37-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.95 Units / -15.57% ROI
- 47-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.3 Units / 6.6% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 42-45 against the Run Line (-6.55 Units / -6.12% ROI).
- 41-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -23 Units / -17.91% ROI
- 34-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.05 Units / -20.57% ROI
- 48-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.1 Units / 11.78% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .552 (930 PA’s) since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 99 total IP; League Avg: .710 — 99th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .245 (929 PA’s) since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 99 total IP; League Avg: .308 — 99th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .176 (72-for-408) against Justin Verlander since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 99 total IP; League Avg: .241 — 98th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed a slugging percentage of just .343 (218 Total Bases / 635 ABs) on pitches in the strike zone since last season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 99 total IP; League Avg: .478 — 100th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .500 (17-for-34) against Yu Darvish on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .356 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .171 (89-for-520) against Yu Darvish’s fastball since the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: .262 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 11% (12/111) against Yu Darvish on inside fastballs since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has thrown off-speed pitches 69% of the time (184/267) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total NonFB; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
keys to the game – away
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Padres are just 2-37 (.051) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .105.
The Padres are 34-5 (.872) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .786.
The Padres are just 1-3 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 5-95 (.050) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .092.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in 62% of their home games since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .332 (6,616 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Mets hitters have just 1,323 strikeouts in 6,616 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Mets are batting just .231 at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 269 walks in 2,312 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have drawn 364 walks in 3,303 PA’s (11%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have drawn 683 walks in 6,660 PA’s (10%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Games involving the Padres went UNDER in 100% of their games (93.8% ROI) after a win as underdogs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 59% of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets pitchers have a strike rate of just 62% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (2,130 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 768 times this season — fewest in MLB.
Padres vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Yu Darvish (Padres): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Preston Tucker (Padres): Foot, D10
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Michael Wacha (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D60
- Steven Wilson (Padres): Pectoral Strain, D15
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D60
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D60
- Brett Baty (Mets): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
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