- The Padres are -185 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson
- Padres starting pitcher: Blake Snell
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The New York Mets (+150) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-185) on Saturday, July 8, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Mets vs Padres Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 42-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 42-46 ATS.
Mets vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -135 | O 8 -105 | +150 |
| Padres | -1.5 +110 | U 8 -115 | -185 |
Mets vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 70.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 29 games (+17.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 35 of his last 49 games (+15.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 29 games (+12.80 Units / 43% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 26 of his last 35 games (+12.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- Francisco Alvarez has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 13 away games (+10.85 Units / 83% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.25 Units / 49% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+10.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- Michael Wacha has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.15 Units / 72% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+9.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Brandon Dixon has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 44% ROI)
Padres vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Padres vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -120 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
Padres vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -450 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -450 |
Padres vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| David Peterson | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +105 |
| Blake Snell | 7.5 +105 | 7.5 -135 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 78 games (+7.65 Units / 9% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 13 games (+6.50 Units / 43% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in their last 6 games (+6.20 Units / 82% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.40 Units / 22% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 81 games (+13.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 78 games (+12.25 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games at home (+4.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.70 Units / 70% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+3.45 Units / 20% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 36-52 against the Run Line (-21.9 Units / -19.55% ROI).
- 42-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.95 Units / -17.72% ROI
- 38-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.95 Units / -14.37% ROI
- 47-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.15 Units / 5.33% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 42-46 against the Run Line (-7.55 Units / -6.99% ROI).
- 41-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -24.2 Units / -18.67% ROI
- 35-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.05 Units / -19.34% ROI
- 48-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.95 Units / 10.43% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
David Peterson has an ERA of 9.21 (28.1 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 4.39 — 0 Percentile.
David Peterson has a strike rate of just 60% (1,283/2,144) against right-handed batters since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 99 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
David Peterson has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 52% (212/412) of right-handed hitters since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 99 total IP; League Avg: 66% — 0 Percentile.
David Peterson has allowed a BABIP of .388 this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .296 — 0 Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Blake Snell has thrown his breaking pitches for a strike just 49% (252/509) of the time this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.
Blake Snell has allowed three-ball counts to 33% of batters they faced (126/386 PA’s) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — first Percentile.
Blake Snell has a strike rate of just 59% (803/1,349) against right-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Blake Snell has allowed three-ball counts to 30% of batters they faced (96/318 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — first Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Mets are just 2-8 (.200) after a loss as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
The Mets are just 1-37 (.026) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Mets are 125-1 (.992) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Mets are just 28-15 (.651) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .786.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Padres are just 1-4 (.200) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are 27-39 (.409) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Padres are just 5-17 (.227) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .389.
The Padres are just 37-7 (.841) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OBP of .332 (6,654 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .748 (6,654 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Mets hitters have just 1,331 strikeouts in 6,654 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Mets are batting .183 with two-strikes since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 273 walks in 2,351 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have drawn 368 walks in 3,345 PA’s (11%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .320 (6,699 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against RHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 319 of 3,304 batters (10%) this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have walked 74 of 769 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (2,130 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% against Padres pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Padres vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Preston Tucker (Padres): Foot, D10
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Ha-Seong Kim (Padres): Toe, Day-to-Day
- Michael Wacha (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D60
- Steven Wilson (Padres): Pectoral Strain, D15
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D60
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D60
- Brett Baty (Mets): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
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