- The Padres are -130 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets starting pitcher: Maxwell Scherzer
- Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove
- Watch the game on SDPA
The New York Mets (+110) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-130) on Sunday, July 9, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Mets vs Padres Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 42-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 43-46 ATS.
Mets vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -190 | O 8 -115 | +110 |
| Padres | -1.5 +155 | U 8 -105 | -130 |
Mets vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 55.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Justin Verlander has hit the Strikeouts Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.55 Units / 53% ROI)
- Kodai Senga has hit the Strikeouts Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.20 Units / 56% ROI)
- Max Scherzer has hit the Strikeouts Over in his last 6 away games (+6.10 Units / 77% ROI)
- Luis Guillorme has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 13 away games (+5.90 Units / 45% ROI)
- Tylor Megill has hit the Earned Runs Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+5.30 Units / 66% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.25 Units / 49% ROI)
- Michael Wacha has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.15 Units / 72% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+9.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+7.10 Units / 19% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 49% ROI)
Padres vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Padres vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Padres vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Padres vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer | 6.5 -125 | 6.5 -105 |
| Joe Musgrove | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +115 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 79 games (+8.65 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.20 Units / 60% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 14 games (+5.15 Units / 31% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 82 games (+14.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.85 Units / 76% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 35% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 36-53 against the Run Line (-23.25 Units / -20.51% ROI).
- 42-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -22.95 Units / -18.38% ROI
- 38-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -15 Units / -15.29% ROI
- 48-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.15 Units / 6.29% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 43-46 against the Run Line (-6.4 Units / -5.87% ROI).
- 42-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -23.2 Units / -17.66% ROI
- 35-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.1 Units / -20.19% ROI
- 49-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.95 Units / 11.34% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Scherzer has struck out 52% (12/23) of right-handed batters he faced over the last 14 days (2 games) — best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Max Scherzer has allowed at least one HR in each of his last six games dating back to June 7th — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Max Scherzer has walked 12 of 480 right-handed batters (3%) since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.
Max Scherzer has allowed an OBP of just .235 (821 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 164 total IP; League Avg: .305 — 100th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of 39% (137/350) against Joe Musgrove this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 35 total IP; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 14% (6/42) against Joe Musgrove on inside fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 35 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .130 (3-for-23) against Joe Musgrove over the past seven days (1 games) — 2nd best in NL over the last week; League Avg: .238 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 47% (25/53) against Joe Musgrove over the past seven days (1 games) — 2nd best in NL over the last week; League Avg: 25% — 97th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Mets are just 2-8 (.200) after a loss as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
The Mets are 125-1 (.992) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Mets are just 1-37 (.026) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Mets are just 28-15 (.651) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .786.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Padres are 27-39 (.409) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Padres are just 1-4 (.200) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 2-37 (.051) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Padres are just 2-6 (.250) after a win as underdogs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .444.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have just 594 strikeouts in 2,907 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mets have scored first in 62% of their home games since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .332 (5,132 PA’s) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Mets hitters have just 1,335 strikeouts in 6,661 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 273 walks in 2,359 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have drawn 370 walks in 3,377 PA’s (11%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have drawn 687 walks in 6,707 PA’s (10%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against RHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 74 of 777 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers had a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (2,160 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% against Padres pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Preston Tucker (Padres): Foot, D10
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Michael Wacha (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb, D60
- Steven Wilson (Padres): Pectoral, D15
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D60
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D60
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
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