Mets vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 7

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 07, 2022, 10:36 AM
  • The Padres (33-22) are -130 favorites vs the Mets (38-19)
  • Mets starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker (3-1), 2.87 ERA
  • Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish (4-3), 4.02 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSD

The New York Mets (+110) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-130) on Tuesday, June 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).

The Mets vs Padres Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mets are 38-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 30-25 ATS.

Mets vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets+1.5 -185O 7.5 -105+110
Padres -1.5 +150U 7.5 -115-130

Mets vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 65.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Padres vs Mets and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+7.15 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+5.75 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+5.45 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 7 away games (+5.25 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Eduardo Escobar has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 14 games (+4.85 Units / 35% ROI)

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+10.55 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+9.15 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 28 games (+9.15 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 23 games at home (+7.30 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Eric Hosmer has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 21 games at home (+7.20 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 57 games (+16.20 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 57 games (+14.45 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 57 games (+10.52 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.50 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+7.40 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games (+11.15 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games at home (+9.30 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 54 games (+9.05 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games at home (+8.70 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 54 games (+4.60 Units / 6% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 35-22 against the Run Line (+16.2 Units / 24.09% ROI).

  • 38-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.45 Units / 17.8% ROI
  • 29-24 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.3 Units / 3.6% ROI
  • 24-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.2 Units / -11.67% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 30-25 against the Run Line (+3.6 Units / 4.95% ROI).

  • 33-22 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.65 Units / 10.53% ROI
  • 24-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -7 Units / -11.71% ROI
  • 29-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.8 Units / 4.55% ROI

Jameson Taillon has walked 2 of 140 right-handed batters (1%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.

Left-handed batters are hitting just .131 (11-for-84) against Jameson Taillon this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .227 — 98th Percentile.

The average home run distance against Jameson Taillon against right-handed batters since the start of last season is 381.0 feet — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: 399.8

Jameson Taillon has walked 5 of 229 batters (2%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Yu Darvish: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Yu Darvish has allowed a slugging percentage of just .111 (3 Total Bases / 27 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .358 — 98th Percentile.

Yu Darvish has allowed a slugging percentage of just .196 (18 Total Bases / 92 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .345 — 95th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .394 (13-for-33) against Yu Darvish with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .155 (39-for-251) against Yu Darvish’s fastball since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: .263 — 100th Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Yankees are 23-7 (.767) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .512.

The Yankees are 2-9 (.182) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .094.

The Yankees are 16-8 (.667) on the road this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .488.

The Yankees are 14-3 (.824) when scoring in the first inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .672.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Padres are 4-15 (.211) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .094.

The Padres are just 27-4 (.871) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .925.

The Padres are 27-7 (.794) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The Padres are just 25-4 (.862) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .906.

The Yankees have a winning percentage of 77% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 51%.

Yankees hitters have an OPS of 1.111 (100 PA’s) against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .732.

Yankees hitters are slugging .607 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .441.

Yankees hitters have an OBP of .257 (4,540 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 57% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.

Padres hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,171 of their 3,521 plate appearances (33%) versus relief pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Padres hitters have drawn 229 walks in 2,273 PA’s (10%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Padres hitters are slugging just .358 this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .388.

Yankees pitchers have won 67% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 391.2 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.9

Yankees pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

The Yankees have won 61% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.

The Padres have won 58% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .182 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .222.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .140 against Padres pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.

Padres pitchers have won 50% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Padres vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Undisclosed, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D10
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Lat, D15
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Travis Jankowski (Mets): Hand, D10
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • James McCann (Mets): Hamate, D10
  • Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Oblique, D15
  • Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.