- The Padres (33-22) are -130 favorites vs the Mets (38-19)
- Mets starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker (3-1), 2.87 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish (4-3), 4.02 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSD
The New York Mets (+110) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-130) on Tuesday, June 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Mets vs Padres Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mets are 38-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 30-25 ATS.
Mets vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -185 | O 7.5 -105 | +110 |
| Padres | -1.5 +150 | U 7.5 -115 | -130 |
Mets vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 65.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+7.15 Units / 53% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+5.75 Units / 51% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+5.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 7 away games (+5.25 Units / 54% ROI)
- Eduardo Escobar has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 14 games (+4.85 Units / 35% ROI)
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+10.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+9.15 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 28 games (+9.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 23 games at home (+7.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- Eric Hosmer has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 21 games at home (+7.20 Units / 27% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 57 games (+16.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 57 games (+14.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 57 games (+10.52 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+7.40 Units / 24% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games (+11.15 Units / 34% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games at home (+9.30 Units / 36% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 54 games (+9.05 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games at home (+8.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 54 games (+4.60 Units / 6% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 35-22 against the Run Line (+16.2 Units / 24.09% ROI).
- 38-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.45 Units / 17.8% ROI
- 29-24 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.3 Units / 3.6% ROI
- 24-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.2 Units / -11.67% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 30-25 against the Run Line (+3.6 Units / 4.95% ROI).
- 33-22 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.65 Units / 10.53% ROI
- 24-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -7 Units / -11.71% ROI
- 29-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.8 Units / 4.55% ROI
Taijuan Walker: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jameson Taillon has walked 2 of 140 right-handed batters (1%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .131 (11-for-84) against Jameson Taillon this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .227 — 98th Percentile.
The average home run distance against Jameson Taillon against right-handed batters since the start of last season is 381.0 feet — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: 399.8
Jameson Taillon has walked 5 of 229 batters (2%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Yu Darvish: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yu Darvish has allowed a slugging percentage of just .111 (3 Total Bases / 27 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .358 — 98th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has allowed a slugging percentage of just .196 (18 Total Bases / 92 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .345 — 95th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .394 (13-for-33) against Yu Darvish with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .155 (39-for-251) against Yu Darvish’s fastball since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: .263 — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Yankees are 23-7 (.767) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .512.
The Yankees are 2-9 (.182) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .094.
The Yankees are 16-8 (.667) on the road this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .488.
The Yankees are 14-3 (.824) when scoring in the first inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .672.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Padres are 4-15 (.211) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .094.
The Padres are just 27-4 (.871) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .925.
The Padres are 27-7 (.794) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Padres are just 25-4 (.862) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .906.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Yankees have a winning percentage of 77% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Yankees hitters have an OPS of 1.111 (100 PA’s) against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
Yankees hitters are slugging .607 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .441.
Yankees hitters have an OBP of .257 (4,540 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 57% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Padres hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,171 of their 3,521 plate appearances (33%) versus relief pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Padres hitters have drawn 229 walks in 2,273 PA’s (10%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters are slugging just .358 this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .388.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have won 67% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 391.2 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.9
Yankees pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Yankees have won 61% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres have won 58% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .182 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .222.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .140 against Padres pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Padres pitchers have won 50% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Padres vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Undisclosed, D60
- Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
- Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D10
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Lat, D15
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Travis Jankowski (Mets): Hand, D10
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- James McCann (Mets): Hamate, D10
- Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Oblique, D15
- Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
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