- The Padres (34-22) are -135 favorites vs the Mets (38-20)
- Mets starting pitcher: Christopher Bassitt (4-3), 3.738 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Sean Manaea (2-3), 3.774 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The New York Mets (+115) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-135) on Wednesday, June 8, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Mets vs Padres Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mets are 38-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 31-25 ATS.
Mets vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -200 | O 7 -105 | +115 |
| Padres | -1.5 +165 | U 7 -115 | -135 |
Mets vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 70.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 away games (+7.10 Units / 66% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 14 games (+6.15 Units / 42% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+4.75 Units / 39% ROI)
- Eduardo Escobar has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.35 Units / 35% ROI)
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+11.85 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 29 games (+10.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- Eric Hosmer has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 22 games at home (+8.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 21 games (+7.90 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 24 games at home (+7.05 Units / 18% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 58 games (+14.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 58 games (+13.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 58 games (+9.22 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games (+8.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 24 games (+6.40 Units / 20% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games (+11.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 24 games at home (+10.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 55 games (+10.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+7.70 Units / 29% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 55 games (+6.20 Units / 9% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 35-23 against the Run Line (+14.4 Units / 20.85% ROI).
- 38-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.45 Units / 16.36% ROI
- 29-25 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.1 Units / 1.69% ROI
- 25-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.2 Units / -9.89% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 31-25 against the Run Line (+5.2 Units / 7.05% ROI).
- 34-22 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.65 Units / 11.69% ROI
- 24-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.2 Units / -13.44% ROI
- 30-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.8 Units / 6.08% ROI
Christopher Bassitt: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
14 of Nestor Cortes’ 34 breaking pitch strikeouts (41%) have been backdoor this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 97th Percentile.
14 of Nestor Cortes’ breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — 2nd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 98th Percentile.
25 of Nestor Cortes’ 63 breaking pitch strikeouts (40%) have been backdoor since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 98th Percentile.
Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 60% of the time (364/610) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Sean Manaea: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .092 (11-for-119) against Sean Manaea with two-strikes this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .165 — 100th Percentile.
Sean Manaea has a strikeout rate of 44% (32 SO in 73 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .092 (6-for-65) against Sean Manaea’s elevated fastball this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .226 — 100th Percentile.
Sean Manaea has allowed a slugging percentage of just .108 (7 Total Bases / 65 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .369 — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Yankees are 23-7 (.767) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .513.
The Yankees are 33-10 (.767) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Yankees are 17-8 (.680) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .487.
The Yankees are 26-1 (.963) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .798.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Padres are 20-11 (.645) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .487.
The Padres are 4-15 (.211) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .095.
The Padres are 13-3 (.812) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .724.
The Padres are 28-7 (.800) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters are slugging .606 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .438.
Yankees hitters are slugging .697 against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Yankees hitters have an OBP of .258 (4,569 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Yankees hitters have drawn 581 walks in 5,602 PA’s (10%) against RHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,175 of their 3,532 plate appearances (33%) versus relief pitchers since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Padres hitters have drawn 66 walks in 621 PA’s (11%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters are slugging just .339 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have won 67% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Yankees pitchers have walked 131 of 1,994 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees pitchers have walked 28 of 496 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees pitchers have walked 157 of 2,440 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .183 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .222.
The Padres have won 58% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .186 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: .224.
Padres pitchers have won 50% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Padres vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Undisclosed, D60
- Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D15
- Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D10
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Lat, D15
- Peter Alonso (Mets): Right Hand, Day-to-Day
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Travis Jankowski (Mets): Hand, D10
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- James McCann (Mets): Hamate, D10
- Starling Marte (Mets): Leg, Day-to-Day
- Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Oblique, D15
- Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
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