Mets vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 8

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 08, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Padres (34-22) are -135 favorites vs the Mets (38-20)
  • Mets starting pitcher: Christopher Bassitt (4-3), 3.738 ERA
  • Padres starting pitcher: Sean Manaea (2-3), 3.774 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The New York Mets (+115) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-135) on Wednesday, June 8, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).

The Mets vs Padres Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mets are 38-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 31-25 ATS.

Mets vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets+1.5 -200O 7 -105+115
Padres -1.5 +165U 7 -115-135

Mets vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 70.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Padres vs Mets and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 away games (+7.10 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 14 games (+6.15 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+4.75 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Eduardo Escobar has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.65 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.35 Units / 35% ROI)

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+11.85 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 29 games (+10.15 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Eric Hosmer has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 22 games at home (+8.20 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 21 games (+7.90 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 24 games at home (+7.05 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 58 games (+14.40 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 58 games (+13.45 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 58 games (+9.22 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games (+8.50 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 24 games (+6.40 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games (+11.15 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 24 games at home (+10.30 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 55 games (+10.05 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+7.70 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 55 games (+6.20 Units / 9% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 35-23 against the Run Line (+14.4 Units / 20.85% ROI).

  • 38-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.45 Units / 16.36% ROI
  • 29-25 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.1 Units / 1.69% ROI
  • 25-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.2 Units / -9.89% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 31-25 against the Run Line (+5.2 Units / 7.05% ROI).

  • 34-22 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.65 Units / 11.69% ROI
  • 24-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.2 Units / -13.44% ROI
  • 30-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.8 Units / 6.08% ROI

14 of Nestor Cortes’ 34 breaking pitch strikeouts (41%) have been backdoor this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 97th Percentile.

14 of Nestor Cortes’ breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — 2nd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 98th Percentile.

25 of Nestor Cortes’ 63 breaking pitch strikeouts (40%) have been backdoor since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 98th Percentile.

Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 60% of the time (364/610) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Sean Manaea: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting just .092 (11-for-119) against Sean Manaea with two-strikes this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .165 — 100th Percentile.

Sean Manaea has a strikeout rate of 44% (32 SO in 73 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 96th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .092 (6-for-65) against Sean Manaea’s elevated fastball this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .226 — 100th Percentile.

Sean Manaea has allowed a slugging percentage of just .108 (7 Total Bases / 65 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .369 — 100th Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Yankees are 23-7 (.767) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .513.

The Yankees are 33-10 (.767) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Yankees are 17-8 (.680) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .487.

The Yankees are 26-1 (.963) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .798.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Padres are 20-11 (.645) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .487.

The Padres are 4-15 (.211) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .095.

The Padres are 13-3 (.812) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .724.

The Padres are 28-7 (.800) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

Yankees hitters are slugging .606 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .438.

Yankees hitters are slugging .697 against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .411.

Yankees hitters have an OBP of .258 (4,569 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.

Yankees hitters have drawn 581 walks in 5,602 PA’s (10%) against RHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Padres hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,175 of their 3,532 plate appearances (33%) versus relief pitchers since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Padres hitters have drawn 66 walks in 621 PA’s (11%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Padres hitters are slugging just .339 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .395.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Yankees pitchers have won 67% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Yankees pitchers have walked 131 of 1,994 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Yankees pitchers have walked 28 of 496 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Yankees pitchers have walked 157 of 2,440 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .183 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .222.

The Padres have won 58% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .186 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: .224.

Padres pitchers have won 50% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Padres vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Undisclosed, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D15
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D10
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Lat, D15
  • Peter Alonso (Mets): Right Hand, Day-to-Day
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Travis Jankowski (Mets): Hand, D10
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • James McCann (Mets): Hamate, D10
  • Starling Marte (Mets): Leg, Day-to-Day
  • Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Oblique, D15
  • Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.