Padres vs. Mets: Wild Card Series Prediction & Odds

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New York Mets' Mark Vientos celebrates with James McCann (33) after they scored on a three-run home run by McCann during the third inning of a baseball game against the Washington Nationals, Wednesday, Oct. 5, 2022, in New York.
(AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)
Rachael Millanta @rachaelmillanta Oct 06, 2022, 3:00 PM
  • The MLB postseason includes four rounds, beginning with the Wild Card Series.
  • The New York Mets will host the San Diego Padres for a three-game series.
  • The Wild Card Series is Oct. 7-9, 2022.
  • The winner of this series will advance to the NLDS and face the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The MLB regular season officially finished up Wednesday, and the Wild Card Series starts Friday, Oct. 7 to kick off the playoffs. With the new postseason format now in effect, 12 teams advance to the playoffs instead of the previous 10. Three division winners and three Wild Card teams from each league will compete, with the top two division winners from each league receiving a bye in the first round.

In the NL, the Padres will take on the Mets for a three-game Wild Card Series at Citi Field in New York. The winner of this matchup will advance to the NL Division Series to face the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Padres vs. Mets Series Schedule

GAMEDATETIME
Game 1Friday, Oct. 78:07 p.m. ET
Game 2Saturday, Oct. 87:37 p.m. ET
Game 3Sunday, Oct. 97:37 p.m. ET

Odds to Win NL Wild Card Series (as of Oct. 6):

  • Mets -185 to win
  • Padres +150 to win

Total Series Games Over/Under (as of Oct. 6):

  • Over 2.5 (+100)
  • Under 2.5 (-120)

Padres vs. Mets Series Prediction

I predict the Mets will win the Wild Card Series against the Padres in two games. 

The Mets have had a fantastic season, tying the division-winning Atlanta Braves with a record of 101-61. The Mets were knocked into second place because they lost the season series with the Braves, 10-9, which served as the division’s tiebreaker. 

Regardless, 101 regular-season wins is absolutely nothing to scoff at.

After making some big moves at the MLB Trade Deadline, the Padres were expected to have an unstoppable second half of the season, but it turned out to be less than stellar. The team held on enough to earn a playoff berth, but between Juan Soto not yet being the difference-maker they were hoping for and Fernando Tatís Jr. being suspended for PEDs, things haven’t exactly worked in the Padres’ favor. 

The Mets and Padres met six times during the regular season and the Padres won four games, including two at Citi Field. Regardless, I think this will be the least competitive matchup of the Wild Card Series games. 

The Mets have had a far better season than the Padres, both in terms of stats and reliability. I doubt this series will have to go to three games. 

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record — Regular Season

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 84-75 against the Run Line (+6.95 Units / 3.5% ROI).

  • 98-61 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 0.73% ROI
  • 84-68 when betting on the total runs Over for +9 Units / 5.12% ROI
  • 68-84 when betting on the total runs Under for -24.2 Units / -13.86% ROI

Mets Over/Under Record

In the 2022 regular season, the Mets hit the over 85 times, the under 68 times, and pushed 9.

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record — Regular Season

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 71-88 against the Run Line (-23.35 Units / -11.83% ROI).

  • 88-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.8 Units / -5.29% ROI
  • 73-82 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.45 Units / -9.37% ROI
  • 82-73 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.85 Units / 1.04% ROI

Padres Over/Under Record

In the 2022 regular season, the Padres hit the over 74 times, the under 82 times, and pushed 6.

MLB Odds at BetMGM

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About the Author

Rachael Millanta

Read More @rachaelmillanta

Rachael Millanta is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM focusing on Major League Baseball. Her work has been published in SB Nation, McSweeney’s Internet Tendency and Slackjaw Humor. Originally from Sydney, Australia, Rachael now resides in Chicago, Illinois.

Rachael Millanta is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM focusing on Major League Baseball. Her work has been published in SB Nation, McSweeney’s Internet Tendency and Slackjaw Humor. Originally from Sydney, Australia, Rachael now resides in Chicago, Illinois.