- The – (82-36) are favorites vs the – (82-36)
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson (6-2), 3.30 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Bailey Falter (0-3), 4.84 ERA
- Watch the game on FOX
The New York Mets () visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies () on Saturday, August 20, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The – are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().
The Mets vs Phillies Over/Under is total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mets are 77-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 61-57 ATS.
Mets vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | O | ||
| Phillies | U |
Mets vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s matchup with 59.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 38 games (+19.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 37 of his last 59 away games (+14.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 21 games (+13.40 Units / 29% ROI)
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 33 of his last 42 games at home (+16.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+11.25 Units / 32% ROI)
Phillies vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Garrett Stubbs | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jean Segura | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Phillies vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Garrett Stubbs | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| Jean Segura | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -250 |
Phillies vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -160 |
| Garrett Stubbs | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jean Segura | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
Phillies vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -150 |
| Trevor Williams | 3.5 -115 | 3.5 -120 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 70 of their last 120 games (+16.42 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 47 of their last 86 games (+7.85 Units / 8% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 24 games (+5.45 Units / 12% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 68 games (+16.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 65 of their last 113 games (+14.45 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 67 games (+10.55 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 53 games (+9.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.95 Units / 24% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 66-53 against the Run Line (+15.6 Units / 10.75% ROI).
- 77-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +21.35 Units / 11.81% ROI
- 61-51 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.55 Units / 3.45% ROI
- 51-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.5 Units / -11.91% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 61-57 against the Run Line (+3.15 Units / 2.21% ROI).
- 65-53 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.75 Units / 2.3% ROI
- 57-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.25 Units / -2.5% ROI
- 55-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.3 Units / -5.63% ROI
David Peterson: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Williams has allowed a slugging percentage of .520 (104 Total Bases / 200 ABs) on low non-fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: .298 — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Williams has located his breaking pitches down 88% of the time (591/670) since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Trevor Williams has located his breaking pitches down 88% of the time (190/215) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 100th Percentile.
Trevor Williams has allowed a slugging percentage of just .111 (2 Total Bases / 18 ABs) against right-handed batters this month (3 games) — 7th best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .356 — 95th Percentile.
Bailey Falter: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (1,585/3,613) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (587/1,382) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (394/925) when behind in the count since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 97th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.8 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (173 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 80.3
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Mets are 27-5 (.844) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
The Mets are 37-24 (.607) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .471.
The Mets are 40-19 (.678) at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Mets are 36-7 (.837) when scoring in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .666.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Phillies are 13-40 (.245) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .115.
The Phillies are 11-40 (.216) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .088.
The Phillies are just 4-11 (.267) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are just 6-7 (.462) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OBP of .333 (3,147 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .311.
The Mets have scored first in 71% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .332 (2,186 PA’s) at home this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Mets hitters have just 628 strikeouts in 3,147 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .345 against LHP this month (10 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .973 (132 PA’s) against LHP this month (10 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .703.
Phillies hitters are slugging .571 against LHP this month (10 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .402 (132 PA’s) against LHP this month (10 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.7 MPH (2,839 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.
Phillies pitchers have walked 159 of 2,474 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D60
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Brandon Marsh (Phillies): Ankle, D10
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D15
- Raymond Hunter (Mets): Back, D15
- Tomás Nido (Mets): Illness, D10
- Taijuan Walker (Mets): Back, Day-to-Day
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Side, D15
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Side, D15
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Eduardo Escobar (Mets): Oblique, D10
- Luis Guillorme (Mets): Groin, D10
- Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
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